1. The Challenge of Delegitimacy to Israel’s National Security 10 th Annual Herzliya Conference, February 2010

2. Structure of Presentation Attack on Israel’s Political-Economic Model Strategic Existential Implications of Attack Response: Conceptual Framework

3. The Political Threat: The Resistance Network Military Superiority Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06) Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06) ? Abu Mussa Marzouk: “failure of the political process will bring about the destruction of Israel (5/15/07) Main Working Assumptions Main Arena: Military-Security Existential Threat: Physical IDF Protects the Nation OverstretchDelegitimacyAsymmetry From Logic of Destruction to Logic of Implosion From Logic of Implosion to Strategy of Implosion Aim: Sabotage Two-State Solution

4. Delegitmacy: From Kibbutz to Kibbush The Left: From Kibbutz to Kibbush (Occupation) Using human rights to make pro-Pal trendy ‘Branding’ demonization: Israel = Apartheid Blurring line between criticism & delegitimacy Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions Anti-Zionist Israelis /Jews Aim: Promote One Man, One Vote London Madrid Bay Area Toronto Networked: Generated from Hubs European Muslims: From ambivalence to radicalization

5. Mid-Term Report & Feedback Loop Undermine Two-State Solution Promote One State Narrative Logic of Implosion Fundamental Delegitimacy Since WWII, more states have collapsed politically than militarily Internationalization of the IL Arabs issue Exercising universal jurisdiction against Israel Less room to maneuver vs. Resistance Network Increasing equivalence between IL & Axis of Evil Danger: Implosion Mid -Term Report

6. Political threat is strategic Synchronized Victory Israel suffers from strategic inferiority New dynamic; new threat Victory won on battlefield Relevancy Gap Diplomatic arena not critical to National Security IDF military and tech superiority enough Political attacks signify nothing new Primarily problem of HasbaraIdeology, not arguments Resolving IL-Pal conflict solves problem Delegitimacy doesn’t hinge on IL-Pal Potential Existential Political-Security Threat

7. Networked Response to Networked Threat Branding Israel Reorganizing MFA Synchronized Victories The Response: Guiding Principles Existential Threat: Plan Accordingly Focusing on Hubs Attacking Catalysts Engaging NGOs Difference b/w Soft & Hard Critics Relations Based Diplomacy Foreign Policy Est.: From Wishes to Budget Intelligence agencies focus on Hubs PM designates body that ‘owns’ issue Inter-agency co-op on critical FP issues

8. Network Response to Network Threat Focusing on Hubs Attacking Catalysts Engaging NGOs Driving Wedge between Soft and Hard Critics Relationship-Based Diplomacy Strengthen NGOs Cultivate Catalysts Hub-Based Approach Open to Criticism Embassies & Informal Ambs

9. Israel’s National Security Priorities Time Organizing logic 19472000~19331939 Political- diplomatic arena Military- security arena November 29, 1947 1960197019801990 Main Working Assumptions Main Arena: Military Security Existential Threat: Physical IDF Protects the Nation Decisive Victory Over enemy Early Warning To prepare forces Deterrence So enemy won’t initiate war Pre Nov ’ 47, main arena political-diplomatic Post Nov.’47, military-security arena takes precedence