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Published byCalvin Atkinson Modified over 9 years ago
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KEY DEMOGRAPHICS AsiaEurope (25 countries) USA 3,800 million455 million291 million 42 million km²4 million km²9 million km² US$ 4,969US$ 23,600US$ 36,300 1,720 million220 million142 million Sources : Economist Intelligence Unit - Eurostat per inhabitant
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GDP GROWTH IN ASIA % Source: Economist Intelligence Unit -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1999200020012002200320042005 ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapan
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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit % -2.5 0.5 2 3.5 5 6.5 8 9.5 1999200020012002200320042005 SingaporeVietnamPhilippines ThailandTaiwanMalaysia GDP GROWTH IN ASIA
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CHINA: 4% OF WORLD GDP Consumption: 27% of world’s steel 7.5% of oil 34% of coal 40% of cement 2004 FDI totaled US$ 60.6 billion Disposable income per capita: 1 135 $ urban residents 353 $ rural population Private economy: + 47% between 1989 and 2003 generates ¼ more jobs than the state sector
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Middle Class: 5% of total population in 2004 45% of total population in 2020 2004: 25 million Chinese can now afford to travel abroad 2008 estimation: 50 million Retail sales: Growth of 13.3% 450 million mobile phones CHINA: GROWTH ENGINE
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INDIA: THE NEXT CHINA ? Strong economic growth (outsourcing from the US and Europe) Engineers average salary: 8,000 € (Germany 40,000 €) Intel: US$ 40 million invested in Bangalore – 2,400 employees Inadequate infrastructure -> Offices moving out of central Delhi and Mumbai
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OFFICE MARKETS Office: part of a mixed use development with retail, hotels, …. Office markets less speculative than the residential market 2004: general rents firming -> +30% in 2004 in Hong Kong +15% forecast in 2005 Growing focus on second and third tier cities Premium office space in Asia: 34 million m² –> +240% since 1996
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OFFICE MARKETS: KEY FIGURES Rent Vacancy Rate Hong Kong Shanghai Mumbai Ho Chi Minh 10.7 8.0 7.5 20.0 16.5 7.8 3.5 8.0 14.5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 5 10 15 20 25 % US $/m²/year Tokyo Beijing Seoul Singapore Taipei
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Hong Kong Tokyo Beijing Shanghai Mumbai Ho Chi Minh Seoul Singapore 15.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 5.25 9.60 9.00 11.00 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Price Yield US $ / m² % OFFICE MARKETS: KEY FIGURES
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OFFICE MARKET TRENDS Steady/ Cooling Down Cooling Further Warming Up Hotter Still Hong Kong Tokyo Hong Kong Tokyo Shanghai Manila Shanghai Manila Taipei Jakarta Ho Chi Minh Taipei Jakarta Ho Chi Minh Singapore Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Beijing Seoul Singapore Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Beijing Seoul Sunny Chilly
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Transparency -> launch of REITs in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China Region attractiveness: Direct Property investments INVESTMENT TRENDS Morgan StanleyBeijing, Shanghai, Tianjin GE CapitalJapan Macquerie & INGShanghai Carlyle Planned Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai
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Beijing Yintai Centre Surface: 350,000 m² Date: 1st Quarter 2005 Merrill Lynch purchased a US$ 30 million stake Owner: Beijing Yintai Property Under development Delivery June 2007 Total investment: US$ 480 million Under development Delivery June 2007 Total investment: US$ 480 million SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION
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Indirect Property investments Early investors in Seoul now selling out But : Mismatch between reality and expectations ERGO Tru Asia (sister company of MEAG) Has taken a position in Shui On Properties (developer) UBS and Hongtai Trust and Investment launch of a fund management joint venture INVESTMENT TRENDS
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Star Tower Location: Seoul, South Korea Surface: 210,000 m² Date: 4 th Quarter 2004 Price: US$ 816 – 825 million Seller: Lone Star Fund III Purchaser: GIC Real Estate Pte Ltd Yield: 8-9% SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION
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ASIE: HIGHLIGHTS Regional consumption: + 5.3% en 2004 Tourism: strong driver for development South Korea: real estate sector attracting overseas investors
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ASIE: CHALLENGES Level of Education Rising disposable incomes Growth in consumption Sustainability Global city/regional planning Regeneration or new towns? Conservation of heritage assets
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