1. IRI Experience Climate knowledge/information as a resource with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters –connects to development goals/programs

2. “strong” forecast founding of IRI was motivated by anticipation of this kind of situation

3. Public Health Malaria in Botswana Epidemic prone country Good surveillance system for epidemics 20 years of data for historic analysis Interested in incorporating seasonal climate forecasts into malaria control planning (Currently: observed climate anomalies) RBM MoH WHO

4. Expected Output Malaria Early Warning System Activities: Demonstrate the use of climate information in malaria control RBM MoH WHO

5. Anomalies in DJF SSTs, DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun) in Botswana (1982-2003) Potential of Seasonal Climate Forecast to predict high/low Malaria years

6. Observed rainfall and DEMETER rainfall forecast in relation to high and low malaria anomaly years Observed and forecasted Climate Anomalies Standardised Malaria Quartiles Information can be used to initiate timely interventions

7. Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

8. MEWS offers opportunities for planning and preparedness ……. NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres

9. Agriculture / Food Security Greater Horn of Africa Desired outcome: Anticipate household's becoming food insecure to allow pre-emptive interventions before the situation becomes an emergency.

10. Partners Information is being produced for and/or in collaboration with:

11. Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec Good potential for climate forecasts:

12. cover box Still one step is needed: Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers do not use (e.g., Rainfall) Need to “Translate” information to the same terms that Decision Makers use (crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.)

13. COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at End of Season Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season Slide Courtesy G. Galu

14. % annual food requirements food insecure How are households meeting food requirements

15. Somalia: Food Economy Groups (Food Security Assessment Unit)

16. (e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004 Climate/Environmental Monitoring + Food Economy Groups: + Seasonal Climate Outlook: Assess food insecurity hotspots

17. Food Security Outlooks (e.g., FSO for December made in August 2004) FS Outlook for DecemberFS Reported in January

18. Summary climate-related EWS have much to offer in managing risks: proactive v. reactive responses room for further improvements in methodologies for benefit to be realized, actions need to be tied to warnings collaboration needed, both in research/development and in operational practice