2. The Impact of Climate Change on Human Welfare in a Warmer World Indur M. Goklany* Asst. Director, Programs & Science & Technology Policy Office of Policy Analysis, US Department of the Interior *Views expressed here are mine, and not the Department of the Interior or the US Government’s

3. Examining Impacts: Beyond the Usual Scientific Debate  Scientific debate focuses on whether climate has warmed, by how much, how rapidly, due to what, and what fraction may be due to manmade GHGs.  For the sake of argument, assume the validity of IPCC view that climate change is “very likely” due to anthropogenic greenhouses gases.  Evaluate various claims about the CC.  Use estimates of the global impacts of climate change based on the IPCC emission and climate change scenarios.

4. Claims about climate change impacts 1.Human and environmental well-being will be lower in a warmer world even if we are wealthier 2.Our descendants will be worse off than us, if we don’t reduce climate change now 3.Global warming is the world’s most important environmental problem

5. Sources of Information Global impacts of climate change FTAs = Fast Track Assessments: sponsored by the British government (peer-reviewed; published 1999 and 2004). Authors intimately involved in writing IPCC reports. Stern Review: 2006 study on the economics of climate change commissioned by the British government from Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist of the World Bank. Mortality estimates World Health Organization (WHO) Costs estimates Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) United Nations Millennium Project

7. Welfare losses due to climate change 2050–2200 Source: Stern Review (2006)

9. Most Important Food, Environmental and Nutritional Problems, Based on Mortality for 2000 Risk factorRankingMortality (millions) Mortality (%) Blood pressure17.112.8 Cholesterol24.47.9 Underweight (hunger) 33.76.7 Low fruit & vegetables 42.74.9 Overweight52.64.6 Unsafe water, poor sanitation 61.73.1 Indoor smoke71.62.9 Malaria1.12.0 Source: WHO 2002

10. Most Important Food, Environment, and Nutritional Problems for 2000, Based on Mortality (continued) Risk factorRankingMortality (millions) Mortality (%) Iron deficiency80.81.5 Urban air pollution90.81.4 Zinc deficiency100.81.4 Vitamin A deficiency110.81.4 Lead exposure120.20.4 Climate change130.20.3 Subtotal27.649.4 TOTAL from all causes55.8100.0 Source: WHO 2002

11. Sources: Goklany (2008), based on Parry et al. (2004), Nicholls (2004), WHO (2002), Martens (1999).

12. Source: Arnell et al. (2004).

13. Sources: Levy et al. (2004).

14. Sources: Nicholls (2004).

15. Over the Foreseeable Future 1.Will climate change lower the welfare of future generations to below today’s? NO 2.Will well-being necessarily be lower in a richer- but-warmer world? NO 3.Is global warming the world’s most important environmental problem? NO 4.How best to reduce damages from global warming while dealing with more urgent problems?

16. Sources: Goklany (2008), based on Parry et al. (2004), Nicholls (2004), WHO (2002), Martens (1999).

17. Focused Adaptation Focus on reducing each urgent hazard. Build resilience and reduce vulnerability to today’s urgent climate-sensitive problems — malaria, hunger, water scarcity, coastal flooding, threats to biodiversity — that might be exacerbated by future climate change.

18. Focused Adaptation — Examples Reduce Malaria by 75%; Cost = $3 billion/yr malaria vaccine, indoor residual spraying with DDT, insecticide treated bed nets. Reduce Hunger by 50%; Cost = $12-15 billion/yr develop crops for poor climatic or soil conditions (namely, drought, water-logging, high salinity or acidity) develop crops for higher CO2 and temperature conditions Reduce Vulnerability to Extreme Events; Cost = $2-10 billion/yr insurance reform; early warning systems; coastal defenses Reduce Water Stress develop drought-resistant crops; property rights for water; water pricing

19. A Broader Approach to Adaptation Sustainable Development Broadly enhance adaptive capacity by increasing economic development, human capital and propensity for technological change. Requires strengthening and/or developing the institutions that underpin adaptive capacity. This is also the essence of sustainable development. One specific approach might be through adherence to the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

20. Increasing society’s adaptive capacity Increases society’s resilience to all manner of adversity, and not just climate change. Broadly advances human well-being, and sustainable (economic) development. Enhances capacity to mitigate emissions. Could raise level at which greenhouse gas concentrations might become “dangerous” and/or allow mitigation to be postponed. Either would reduce mitigation costs.

21. Maximum benefits in 2085 & costs of mitigation & adaptation, under warmest scenario (A1FI) MitigationAdaptation KyotoNo CC after 1990 Focused adaptation Broad development Lives saved from malaria, hunger & coastal flooding (in 000s) 21 (1%) 237 (10%) 1,480 (64%) 1,480 (64%) Decline in net PAR for water stress (in millions) -83 (-5%) -1,192 (-72%) up to 1,667 (+) Up to 1,667 (+) Progress toward other MDGs poverty reduced 50% child mortality rate reduced 67% maternal mortality rate reduced 75% access rates for safe water & sanitation increased 50% illiteracy rate reduced 100% Almost none SomeSubstantialMDGs should be met Habitat for other species (relative to 1990 level) Small decline Larger decline Habitat doubled by CC Cost in 2010-2015 ($ billions)/year165>>165~34~165 Sources: IPCC (2001), Parry et al. (2004), Arnell (2004), Nicholls (2004), Arnell et al. (2002), UNMP (2005).

22. Summary Through the foreseeable future (2085-2100): climate change is probably not the world’s most important public health or environmental problem. Richer-but-warmer worlds will likely have higher well-being than cooler worlds. Future generations will have greater capacity to both adapt to AND mitigate climate change because they’ll be wealthier, have more human capital and better technology. Adaptation is superior to mitigation. Adaptation would: –Reduce climate- AND non-climate related risks faster, more effectively, with greater certainty, and at lesser cost. –Advance well-being and sustainable development more effectively..

23. Interim Policies Adaptation Increase society’s resilience to adversity in general –advance economic growth, human capital and propensity for technological change –Would enhance both adaptive and mitigative capacity Undertake focused adaptation –reduce vulnerability to today’s urgent climate-sensitive problems that might be exacerbated by future climate change Mitigation L et market select “no-regret” actions Expand range of “no-regret” actions (through R&D) Science & Monitoring More robust knowledge of science, impacts and policies Continue monitoring to spot “dangerous” impacts before they become imminent [Adaptive Management]

24. Solve the urgent problems facing today’s generations while advancing the ability of tomorrow’s wealthier population to address whatever challenges they’ll confront

25. Indur Goklany, “What to Do about Climate Change,” Policy Analysis No. 609, Cato Institute, February 5, 2008. Available at: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-609.pdf

26. The End

27. Current Impacts Assessment Climate Change Using AOGCMs Human Impacts IPCC Emissions Scenarios Radiative Forcing Atmospheric Concentrations Effects on biophysical systems Socioeconomic Assumptions Interconnections

30. Fig. 6-17: Global deaths & death rates due to climate related disasters, 1900-2004 Source: Based on data from EM-DAT (2005), McEvedy & Jones (1978), WRI (2005).

31. Cereal Yield vs. Income, 1975-2003 Source: Based on data from World Bank (2005b).

32. Food Supplies per capita vs. Income, 1975-2002 Source: Based on data from World Resources Institute (2005), World Bank (2005b).

33. Malnutrition Prevalence vs. Income, 1987-2000 Source: Based on data from World Bank (2005).

34. Infant Mortality vs. Income, 1980-2003 Source: Based on data from World Bank (2005b).

35. Life Expectancy vs. Income, 1977-2003 Source: Based on data from World Bank (2005b).

36. Figure 10-1: Human well-being vs. wealth, early 2000s Source: World Resources Institute (2005); World Bank (2005).

37. Figure 10-2: Total fertility rate vs. wealth, 1977-2003 Source: Based on data from World Bank (2005).

38. Population at Risk (PAR) in 2085 from Malaria with and without Climate Change Sources: Martens (1999); Arnell et al. (2002)

39. Source: Parry et al. (2004)

40. Focused Adaptation Reducing Hunger Focus additional resources on: R&D into solving the developing world’s current agricultural problems that might worsen with climate change, e.g., growing crops in poor climatic or soil conditions (such as drought, or water-logged, highly saline or acidic soils). Developing cultivars for conditions likely to be strengthened in the future independent of the accuracy of climate models, e.g., higher CO2 and temperature conditions. Higher yield, low impact cultivars and agronomic practices. Reducing losses and wastage at each stage of agricultural and food production – from pre-harvest to post-harvest to end-use.

41. Reducing Total PAR through 2085 Water Shortage Climate change is more likely to increase the global PAR. Mitigation, therefore, may make matters worse in many areas. Practices that would help cope with current shortages would also help address any future climate-change-caused shortages. These practices include: –Institutions treating water as an economic commodity, i.e., transferable property rights to water, water pricing –Development of drought resistant crops, and greater use of precision agriculture

42. Focused Adaptation Co-benefits of Institutional Changes to Make Water Use More Efficient More efficient water use, particularly in the agricultural sector, will reduce human demand for freshwater -- the greatest current threat to freshwater biodiversity. Increase the likelihood of meeting human demand for food. Water availability is sometimes cited as the greatest threat to future food security. Reduce a significant barrier to sustainable development.

43. GDP per capita in 2100 per IPCC scenarios assuming no CC Sources: Arnell et al. (2004), World Bank (2006); IPCC (2000)

44. Sources: Goklany (2007c), based on Stern (2006), Arnell et al. (2004), World Bank (2006), IPCC (2000).

45. Maximum benefits in 2085 & costs of mitigation & adaptation, under warmest scenario (A1FI) MitigationAdaptation KyotoNo CC after 1990 Focused adaptation Lives saved from malaria, hunger & coastal flooding (in 000s) 21 (1%) 237 (10%) 1,480 (64%) Decline in net Population at Risk for water stress (in millions) -83 (-5%) -1,192 (-72%) up to 1,667 (+) Progress toward other MDGs poverty reduced 50% child mortality rate reduced 67% maternal mortality rate reduced 75% access rates for safe water & sanitation increased 50% illiteracy rate reduced 100% Almost none SomeSubstantial Habitat for other species (relative to 1990 level) Small decline Larger decline Habitat doubled Cost in 2010-2015 ($ billions)/year165>>165~34 Sources: IPCC (2001), Parry et al. (2004), Arnell (2004), Nicholls (2004), Arnell et al. (2002), UNMP (2005).

46. Net Biome Productivity with climate change Sources: Levy et al. (2004).