1. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley Dr. Andrew Thow Prof. Alyson Warhurst November 2008 Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com

2. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Maplecroft Risk advisory to NGOs, governments and business Work in partnership with our clients  Academic rigour and methodologies  Building capacity based on best practice standards  Address concerns and expectations of stakeholders  Creativity in presentation and delivery A multi-cultural team of over 30 professionals  Proven track record of projects with blue-chip corporations, UN organisations and NGOs.  Experience in sectors including humanitarian, retail, mining, energy, banking, technology, logistics, transportation, ICTs  Long-established relationships and advisory to key clients Risk, Responsibility and Reputation

3. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors Dr Andrew Thow, Prof. Alyson Warhurst, and Mark deBlois March 2008 In collaboration with CARE International, 7-9 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, Switzerland

4. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Recent history of natural disasters How is the climate predicted to change? How do we assess risk? Assessing current humanitarian risk hotspots: a GIS approach Implications for humanitarian organisations What measures can be taken to mitigate against these risks?

5. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Recent history of natural disasters During 2005 and 2006, natural disasters killed 120,000 people -271 million affected -$250 billion in economic losses Human and economic costs are increasing 97% of disaster related deaths occur in developing countries Economic losses as % of GDP are heaviest in lower income countries Potential to have a significant impact on achieving Millennium Development Goals Knowledge still poor about contributing factors especially where global risks conflate e.g.  climate change; water, food and energy security; health; education, financial inclusion Number of people affected by natural disasters is increasing. (source: World Bank, 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development)

6. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by How do we assess risk? Hazard Flood Cyclone Drought Vulnerability Natural, human, social, financial, physical Risk Flood risk hotspots Cyclone risk hotspots Drought risk hotspots += Impact of a humanitarian disaster is related to the degree of exposure to a particular hazard, and Vulnerability of a population is determined by a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors (e.g. poverty, governance, conflict, urbanisation, resource security, climate change etc.)

7. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Hazards GroupThemeGIS LayerFuture scenariosSource(s)Year Group 1 Hazards Projected trends Temperature trends Areas projected to temperature increase yesIPCC, WBGU, MPIVarious Precipitation trends Areas projected to undergo change in precipitation yesIPCC, WBGU, MPI 2080- 2099 Current climate hazards Floods Distribution of flood mortality risk Change in extreme precipitation qualitative yes IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory, UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley 2005 2071- 2100 Tropical cyclones Distribution of cyclone mortality risk Distribution of tropical storm tracks qualitative IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory, UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley 2005 Drought Distribution of drought mortality risk Change in maximum dry periods Future dynamics of drought risk qualitative yes IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory, UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley 2005 2071- 2100 2041- 2070

8. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Temperature trends

9. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Precipitation trends In a warmer climate, global average precipitation will increase by ~ 1-2% per degree of warming How is the climate predicted to change? Dotted areas denote >90% agreement between models Considerable changes are likely, but in many significant regions, models do not agree Projected changes using A1B scenario for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. (source IPCC after Tebaldi et al )

10. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Current Climatic Hazards Drought HazardsFlooding HazardsCyclone Hazards Source: IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory, UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley

11. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Current Climatic Hazards Source: Dilley et al. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A global risk analysis. World Bank and Colombia University, 2005

12. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Current Climatic Hazards Global Warming Art, 2008. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Tropical_Storm_Map_png

13. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Vulnerability GroupThemeGIS LayerFuture scenariosSource(s)Year Group 2 Vulnerability Natural Water availabilityDistribution of water stressqualitative WWDRII, IPCC AR4, FAO, Alcamo 2007 Agricultural suitability Agricultural suitability for combination of staple crops no FAO GAEZ, GLC 2000, IPCC WGII 2000 Land degradationDistribution of soil degradationnoISRICI2005 Human Poverty Distribution of mortality rate infantsnoCIESIN2000 Distribution of child malnutritionnoCIESIN2002 Human development indexnoUNDP2008 Health National index for HIV, TB, malaria, malnutrition no WHO, UNAIDS, Maplecroft 2007 Social GovernanceNational indexno World Bank, OCHA Global Focus Model 2007 Conflict riskNational indexForward looking ICG, Uppsala University, Maplecroft 2007 DisplacementNational indexnoUNHCR, Maplecroft2007 Financial GDPSub national GDPno CIESIN, World Bank, CIA Fact book 2006 Physical Road infrastructureMarket accessibilityno VMAP0 Digital Chart of the World 1997 Road coverageNational indexnoIRF 2000- 2005 TelecommunicationNational indexno World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) 2007

14. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Overall Human Vulnerability Overall human vulnerability based on a combination of natural, human, social, financial and physical factors

15. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Overall Human Vulnerability: Analysis and limitations

16. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Sudden Onset Hazards: Flood Risk Hotspots Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase Areas affected are also likely to expand

17. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Sudden Onset Hazards : Cyclone Risk Hotspots Intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase, due to rising sea surface temperatures Projections of future distributions of cyclones from GCMs are very uncertain

18. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Slow Onset Hazards : Drought Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase Spatial distribution of droughts is unlikely to change significantly in the next 30 years

19. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by All Hazards Hotspots Combined Map showing cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for all three climate-related hazards studied – floods, cyclones and drought. Areas at risk for more than one type of hazard are considered to be of most concern for humanitarian actors.

20. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Risk Hotspots and Population Density

21. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Risk Hotspots and Population Density Change

22. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Key findings and the road ahead

23. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Key findings 1.The spatial distribution of humanitarian risks from flooding, cyclones and drought will remain largely the same in the future 2.Current areas of humanitarian focus remain critical 3.Sudden onset events are likely to be more frequent and have greater impact 4.Human Vulnerability - most important factor in determining the impact of future events 5.South East Africa and South and South East Asia are likely to suffer from an intensification of multiple hazards 6.Climate change impacts on humanitarian risks are likely to be further impacted by risk of conflict, particularly around areas of high water and food insecurity 7.Efforts should be focused on reducing human vulnerability and on improving the ability of communities to adapt to even small changes in climate as they occur 8.By understanding the patterns of different global risks we can get a more accurate understanding of current risk hot spots and emerging trends

24. Note : Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Produced by Thank you... For more information please visit www.global-risks.com Andrew Hartley andrew.hartley@maplecroft.com... Or contact me directly