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Northwest ISD Quarterly Demographic Report 2Q13. Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent.

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Presentation on theme: "Northwest ISD Quarterly Demographic Report 2Q13. Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent."— Presentation transcript:

1 Northwest ISD Quarterly Demographic Report 2Q13

2 Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. ( City Journal – Winter 2013 ) DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. ( Metrostudy ) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 78 consecutive months. ( http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ Since 2000, 1 million more people have moved to Texas than have left for other states. In 2011, Houston became the 5 th largest MSA in the country with DFW the 4 th behind only NYC, LA and Chicago ( City Journal – Winter 2013 ) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information ( July 2013 ) - U.S. 7.6% - Texas 6.5% - DFW MSA 6.2% - Tarrant County 5.7% - Fort Worth 6.3% DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. ( Dallas Business Journal ) Texas sales tax collections have increased for 39 consecutive months ( Year-over- year ) and sales tax receipts for June 2013 were 9.1 percent higher than for June 2012 ( Texas Comptroller ) Economic Conditions

3 Dallas/Fort Worth Market Multiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

4 Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Starts and Closings

5 Region 10 and 11 Growth 2007/08 – 2012/13

6 Regional Enrollment Trends Dallas/Fort Worth Region 11Region 10 RankDistrict Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08 - 2012/13 Growth 1NORTHWEST ISD11,89817,8135,915 2DENTON ISD20,89225,7824,890 3FORT WORTH ISD78,85783,4914,634 4KELLER ISD29,45833,3653,907 5EAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISD14,16517,7313,566 6MANSFIELD ISD29,69632,8833,187 7LEWISVILLE ISD49,63652,5222,886 8ARLINGTON ISD62,86365,0052,142 9BIRDVILLE ISD22,06324,1892,126 10BURLESON ISD9,04710,5811,534 11HURST-EULESS-BEDFORD ISD20,39221,8191,427 12LITTLE ELM ISD5,4096,399990 13WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD5,7166,540824 14EVERMAN ISD4,7465,401655 15LAKE WORTH ISD2,8533,256403 16CASTLEBERRY ISD3,4223,814392 17KRUM ISD1,5061,895389 18AUBREY ISD1,6342,006372 19WEATHERFORD ISD7,2647,635371 20ALEDO ISD4,4444,729285 RankDistrict Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08 - 2012/13 Growth 1FRISCO ISD27,41842,70315,285 2RICHARDSON ISD34,18038,0463,866 3PROSPER ISD2,6755,5022,827 4ALLEN ISD17,10219,8912,789 5WYLIE ISD10,74313,4252,682 6MESQUITE ISD36,64039,1282,488 7IRVING ISD32,74635,0282,282 8MCKINNEY ISD22,42624,4442,018 9GRAND PRAIRIE ISD25,31726,9281,611 10FORNEY ISD7,0158,5711,556 11PLANO ISD53,68355,1881,505 12ROCKWALL ISD13,06414,4831,419 13LOVEJOY ISD2,5013,6501,149 14DALLAS ISD157,804158,9151,111 15WAXAHACHIE ISD6,5617,6521,091 16COPPELL ISD9,94810,9971,049 17GARLAND ISD57,16958,056887 18DUNCANVILLE ISD12,46713,271804 19PRINCETON ISD2,6743,435761 20ROYSE CITY ISD4,1444,905761

7 New Home Ranking Report by ISD – 2Q13 Dallas/Fort Worth Area RankDistrict NameAnnual StartsAnnual ClosingsVDLFuture 1 Frisco ISD2,7672,2404,28710,268 2 Northwest ISD1,1931,1331,61922,641 3 Denton ISD1,1729952,53814,448 4 Keller ISD8698901,3753,364 5 Lewisville ISD9007971,4992,010 6 Prosper ISD8687611,68215,419 7 Dallas ISD8807062,1757,340 8 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD7266511,75920,046 9 Mansfield ISD6446348365,723 10 Little Elm ISD6696309396,996 11 McKinney ISD7326211,3153,036 12 Allen ISD6315481,0231,447 13 Plano ISD3983859251,383 14 Rockwall ISD5293771,7058,073 15 Crowley ISD4063682,0098,229 16 Wylie ISD3393505024,155 17 Forney ISD4033291,52811,458 18 Fort Worth ISD3473261,2254,801 19 Burleson ISD3733158383,706 20 Anna ISD3533034163,735 Totals20,38418,09848,859274,328

8 Home Value Comparison Source: Zillow-Yahoo Real Estate Network

9 Source: Tarrant County Appraisal District

10 Foreclosure Distribution 2Q13 ISD2Q112Q122Q13 Dallas ISD507502500 Fort Worth ISD277266228 Arlington ISD257251183 Garland ISD245208166 Mesquite ISD142154146 Mansfield ISD191196127 Lewisville ISD155156115 Grand Prairie ISD8698106 Crowley ISD10611494 McKinney ISD936390 Keller ISD14214386 Plano ISD15414883 Denton ISD11310783 Birdville ISD989978 Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD949972 Frisco ISD15312271 De Soto ISD739871 Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD966668 Northwest ISD7810066 Rockwall ISD536465 Little Elm ISD474964 Richardson ISD998957 Carroll ISD15 57 Irving ISD726954 Azle ISD232254 Midlothian ISD302041 Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD757240 Royse City ISD222133 Grapevine-Colleyville ISD302033

11 Northwest ISD New Housing Activity Starts200820092010201120122013Closings200820092010201120122013 1Q339185303235251288 1Q462233232230218226 2Q419251345268298363 2Q446276340230331318 3Q387366264282286 3Q444303348263333 4Q275258204256257 4Q421308276295258 Total1,4201,0601,1161,0411,092651 Total1,7731,1201,1961,0181,140544 Quarterly starts are above 350 for first time in 4 years with a 22% increase over 2Q12. 2Q13 closings are over 300 following the upward trend of starts and inventory.

12 Annual Closing Distribution 2Q13

13 Vacant Developed Lots 2Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions -2Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots) RankSubdivisionVDLFuture 1Sendera Ranch - TES1413,784 2Tehama Ridge1110 3Highlands at Trophy Club105265 4Highlands Glen950 5Willow Ridge Estates91379 6Dorado Ranch75140 7Chadwick Farms68133 8Willow Springs Ranch640 9Seventeen Lakes63550 10Reatta Ridge Addition5999 TOTALS8725,350

14 Future Lots 2Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) RankSubdivisionVDLFuture 1Tradition04,517 2Sendera Ranch - TES1413,784 3Sendera Ranch - SRES502,773 4Bonds Ranch01,162 5Richmond0740 6Canyon Falls0726 7Trails of Fossil Creek14708 8Shale Creek48600 9Seventeen Lakes63550 10Elizabeth Creek Estates0539 TOTALS31616,099

15 Overall Housing Data by Elementary Attendance Zone Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Occupied HomesModel Finished Vacant Under ConstructionInventory Vacant Dev. LotsFuture LotsTotal BECK ELEMENTARY10312285904591222341,224 CLARA LOVE ELEMENTARY3154141,678104523111,996 COX ELEMENTARY43104197111815241311,3172,183 GRANGER ELEMENTARY601512,3510101002,352 HASLET ELEMENTARY401330121,318011516841,1002,518 HATFIELD ELEMENTARY7150317545234853636,0786,739 HUGHES ELEMENTARY862867281,329218264657941,526 JUSTIN ELEMENTARY23915699500991623651,531 LAKEVIEW ELEMENTARY24856277642,59772170981492973,141 NANCE ELEMENTARY43465161,2721438521,5592,891 PETERSON ELEMENTARY19363161651,71961970951955972,606 PRAIRIE VIEW ELEMENTARY2844768221146727861,686 ROANOKE ELEMENTARY82178029866272029521,2442,191 SCHLUTER ELEMENTARY1002594281,32161328471821,8283,378 SENDERA RANCH ELEMENTARY922931,0625106502,7733,891 SEVEN HILLS ELEMENTARY17962626128111052741,016 THOMPSON ELEMENTARY16365122361,27102163841413,7845,280 Grand Total1,1933631,13331821,342351243885471,61922,64146,149 * Inventory = models + finished vacant lots + under construction Note: Sendera Ranch has been split between SRES and TES as per plat information provided by Metrostudy.

16 Ten Year Forecast by Grade GRADE LEVEL PROJECTIONS Year (Oct.)EE/PKK1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12thTotalGrowth % 2007/08 2101,0411,06797399794595790889086796679769559211,905 2008/09 2011,1661,1411,1471,0351,0851,0091,0299959501,00888773262713,0121,10710% 2009/10 2521,2271,2201,2181,1481,1271,1511,0581,1011,0441,1141,013821670 14,1641,1528.9% 2010/11 2851,2841,2971,3031,2821,2011,2191,2301,1221,1161,2191,122925766 15,3711,2078.5% 2011/12 2701,376 1,3941,3621,3261,2871,3111,2741,1821,2871,2141,030866 16,5551,1847.7% 2012/13 2781,4421,4561,4451,4721,4281,3951,3971,3771,3211,3431,2981,157954 17,7631,2087.3% 2013/14 2911,5571,5901,5911,5711,6071,5741,3981,4381,4191,4781,2831,2101,128 19,1351,3727.7% 2014/15 2911,6661,6831,6931,7051,6741,6971,5991,4581,5001,6171,4141,1961,185 20,3781,2436.5% 2015/16 2911,7781,7971,8021,7901,8181,7761,7341,6481,5051,7071,5731,3271,177 21,7231,3456.6% 2016/17 2911,8881,9171,912 1,9081,9261,8031,7841,6931,7041,6461,4711,306 23,1611,4386.6% 2017/18 2912,0122,0402,0452,0362,0422,0261,9631,8571,8381,9471,6441,5401,451 24,7321,5716.8% 2018/19 2912,1532,1802,1842,1712,1812,1722,0642,0171,9112,0881,8851,5401,518 26,3551,6246.6% 2019/20 2912,2902,3272,3252,3092,3122,3202,2062,1162,0762,1722,0181,7681,516 28,0461,6916.4% 2020/21 2912,4352,4672,4802,4572,4682,4602,3612,2672,1782,3622,1001,8941,741 29,9611,9156.8% 2021/22 2912,5902,6262,6322,6262,629 2,5022,4242,3332,4712,2871,9711,860 31,8711,9106.4% 2022/23 2912,7522,7922,7992,7882,8082,8012,6742,5692,4942,6452,3912,1471,935 33,8862,0156.3%

17 Elementary Campus Ten Year Forecast Elementary growth = one new elementary per year NORTHWEST ISD Projections Elementary Schools2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Beck Elementary7117888419351,0071,0811,1311,1791,2131,2601,309 Clara Love Elementary569632697728748757799803791793797 Cox Elementary 357391446491548604680765862971 Granger Elementary876882879887879862832821819817820 Haslet Elementary494484475497 519548571597623649 Hatfield Elementary443386427470522581635708785865948 Hughes Elementary575596615601639667692739782824862 Justin Elementary510503523534555582612632651667676 Lakeview Elementary485544562590616625648670689707726 Nance Elementary454483505508519528553570589612634 Peterson Elementary61469577687192696310201059110911631217 Prairie View Elementary445486523547586598614628641658674 Roanoke Elementary8088649339581019109711871284139515131641 Sendera Ranch Elementary55660566876484498711651309145416031741 Seven Hills Elementary52654657961666273279086094010231117 Schluter Elementay41845149654561968977988199711271275 Thompson Elementary432481520555624676722779841904974 TOTAL ELEMENTARY8,9169,78110,40911,05211,75412,49213,33214,17415,05816,02317,031 Elementary growth5258656286437027388418428849651,008

18 Middle School & High School Ten Year Forecast Middle Schools2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Chisholm Trail Middle School8638839129831,0411,1331,1751,2801,3631,4641,569 Gene Pike Middle School7587697757917948819149581,0101,0991,160 Medlin Middle School8959761,0521,1221,1851,2231,2861,3671,4651,5481,632 Tidwell Middle School9119291,0381,1961,3951,5481,6711,7701,8241,8761,964 Wilson Middle School6686987807958658739461,0231,1441,2721,412 TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL4,0954,2554,5574,8875,2805,6585,9926,3986,8067,2597,737 MIDDLE SCHOOL GROWTH328160302330393378334406408453478 High Schools2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Northwest High School2,4932,7162,8903,1093,3343,4993,6913,8664,1114,3304,636 Byron Nelson High School2,1292,2602,3992,5522,6702,9603,2173,4853,8634,1364,359 Steele Accelerated High School90 Denton County JJAEP22222222222 Denton Creek3831 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL4,7525,0995,4125,7846,1276,5827,0317,4748,0978,5899,118 HIGH SCHOOL GROWTH355347313372343455449443623492529 TOTAL17,76319,13520,37821,72323,16124,73226,35528,04629,96131,87133,886 Growth1,2081,3721,2431,3451,4381,5711,6241,6911,9151,9102,015 % Growth7.3%7.7%6.5%6.6% 6.8%6.6%6.4%6.8%6.4%6.3%

19 Summary Texas Economy continues to be the strongest state economy in the country. New home construction booming and should continue into 2014. Home prices are climbing due to low inventories of existing homes and surge in demand. Vacant Developed Lot supply is tight with only 1,619 lots, only a 16 month supply. Northwest ISD has the highest future lot total in the DFW area with over 22,000 future lots planned. Northwest ISD can expect an increase of approximately 7,000 students during the next 5 years. North Tarrant and DFW will continue to be one of the strongest growth areas in the country.


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