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Hold ’em or Fold ’em: Where are We in the Equity Cycle? Danny Bubis, CFA Alec MacIsaac, CFA Aaron Clark, CFA Ben Ellis, CFA
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Tetrem – who we are North American equities (Canada and U.S.) Value focus, large-cap bias $5.9 billion assets under management Winnipeg and Boston offices Founded in 2004, employee-owned Personal investments same as clients’
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Tetrem – who we are Funds managed at CI CI Canadian Investment (since 2006) CI Canadian Dividend (since 2011) United Canadian Equity Value (since 1993) United US Equity Alpha Corp Class (since 2008) Allocations within Portfolio Series and Synergy Tactical Asset Allocation
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Low P/E Vs. High P/E Market-Adjusted Return One Year After Surprise 1973 - 2010 0% = Market Return (14.8% annually). Source: David Dreman, 2011. Data Sources: Compustat North American Data, Abel/Noser Corp, I/B/E/S, Thomson First Call. Contrarian value – tilt the odds in your favour Invest into low expectations, avoid high expectations
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Contrarian value – tilt the odds in your favour Low volatility is normal Volatility Index (VIX) January 5, 1990 Through September 5, 2014 Source: Bloomberg.
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Sell-Side Consensus Indicator Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research US Equity Strategy. As of August 31, 2014. Contrarian value – tilt the odds in your favour Sell-side bearishness is bullish for stocks
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Large cap – the next hot hand Large caps lining up for outperformance S&P 100 (Mega Caps) VS. Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg. As of July 31, 2014.
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Large cap – the next hot hand Large caps are historically cheap S&P 100 (Mega Caps) VS. Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Relative Valuation: Trailing EV/EBITDA Source: Bloomberg.
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Source: Empirical Research Partners. As of August 31, 2014. Dividend growth – not a crap shoot Dividend growers are the value opportunity Ratio of Trailing P/E – Highest Quintiles of Dividend Growth and Yield
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Source: International Energy Agency, Bloomberg, As of June 30, 2014. Oh, Canada! – a full house Global oil demand is up by 25 million barrels a day over the last 20 years
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World Oil Consumption In 2012 Barrels Consumed Per Capita (1) Source: United States Energy Information Agency, Ned Davis Research. Monthly data. As of September 30, 2013. (2) Series allocated to 100 on December 31, 1993. Oh, Canada! – a full house Developing countries hold the key to growth in oil demand
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Suncor – dealing with a stacked deck Source: Company reports. Quarterly Dividend Per Share Dividend Growth (Q1/2013 - Q3/2014): 115%
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Intel – the house always wins Source: Historic figures derived from company reports. Forward looking estimates are from Tetrem Capital Management. As of September 8, 2014. Cumulative Cash Returned to Shareholders Since 2009
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Manulife – tall stack of blue chips Source: Company reports. As of June 30, 2014. CAGR (Q3/2012 - Q2/2014): 13% Funds Under Management
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Open Text – a cash flow slot machine Source: Company reports. As of September 3, 2014. Cash Flow 7 Year CAGR: 22%
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Boeing – flying the high rollers Source: Historic figures derived from company reports. Forward looking estimates are from Tetrem Capital Management. Rolling 5-year average. As of September 5, 2014. Backlog as a % of Same-Year Deliveries (since 1960)
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Thomson Reuters – coming out of rehab Source: Company reports, Bloomberg. As of September 10, 2014. EBITDA Margin
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CI Canadian Investment Fund Source: Fundata, August 31, 2014
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CI Canadian Dividend Fund Source: Fundata, August 31, 2014
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United Canadian Equity Value Corporate Class Source: Fundata, August 31, 2014
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United U.S. Equity Alpha Corporate Class Source: Fundata, August 31, 2014
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Questions?
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FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS ®CI Investments, the CI Investments design are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication is published by CI as a general source of information and is not intended to provide personal legal, accounting, investment or tax advice. Facts and data provided by CI and other sources are believed to be reliable when posted; however, CI cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times. CI and its affiliates will not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this presentation. Thank you
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