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MANAGING INTEREST RATE RISK: SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW MIKE DELISLE, ALM ADVISORS GROUP WVBA Convention July 29, 2014
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2 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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3 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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4 What we know… Rates as they are
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5 What we know… How we got here
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6 What we know… Historical transitions
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10 What we know… Historical transitions
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11 What we know… Historical transitions
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12 What we know… Historical transitions
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13 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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14 NII at Risk Earnings at Risk (EAR) – Net Interest Income (NII) Short term view of risk Asset Sensitive: Increased income in rising rate scenarios Liabilities Sensitive: Decreased income in rising rate scenarios
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15 NII at Risk Profile Asset Sensitive -200 bps-100 bpsBase+100 bps+200 bps+300 bps+400 bps 1st Quarter7,0357,1677,3127,4947,6627,8207,965 2nd Quarter6,6927,2407,6677,9468,2018,4398,669 3rd Quarter6,5847,3267,9548,3458,7019,0389,368 4th Quarter6,6127,4868,2178,6158,9729,3089,639 26,92429,21931,14932,40033,53734,60535,642 % Difference-13.6%-6.2% 4.0%7.7%11.1%14.4%
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16 NII at Risk Profile Liability Sensitive -200 bps-100 bpsBase+100 bps+200 bps+300 bps+400 bps 1st Quarter3,4213,3913,3023,2703,2453,2273,196 2nd Quarter3,5283,5003,3753,3373,3093,2933,278 3rd Quarter3,5753,5603,4143,3963,3563,3493,346 4th Quarter3,6063,6003,4343,4643,4293,4423,459 14,12914,05013,52613,46813,33913,31113,279 % Difference4.5%3.9% -0.4%-1.4%-1.6%-1.8%
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17 Peer Data March 14 NII Rates Up 200 bps
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18 Peer Data March 14 NII Rates Up 200 bps Asset Sensitive 62% Liability Sensitive 14%
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19 EVE at Risk Economic Value of Equity (EVE) EVE = PV Assets – PV Liabilities Long term view of risk
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20 EVE at Risk Profile Asset Sensitive EVEDifference% Difference UP 30058,5201,7243.0% UP 20058,0381,2422.2% UP 10057,6048091.4% Base Case56,796 DN 10050,812(5,984)-10.5% Book Value:46,529
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21 EVE at Risk Profile Liability Sensitive EVEDifference% Difference UP 30077,816(9,912)-11.3% UP 20081,773(5,955)-6.8% UP 10086,145(1,583)-1.8% Base Case87,728 DN 10089,9132,1852.5% Book Value:89,452
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22 Peer Data March 14 EVE Rates Up 200 bps
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23 Peer Data March 14 EVE Rates Up 200 bps Asset Sensitive 24% Liability Sensitive 57%
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24 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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25 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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26 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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27 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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28 CD Migration
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29 CD Migration
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30 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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31 Securities
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32 Securities
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33 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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34 Brokered CD’s Brokered CD's 7/21/2014 For settlement 7/30/2014 Indicative Levels for Best-Efforts Posting CD RatesBenchmark Term All-In Low All-In HighFHLB-BostSpread 3-mos 0.250.300.35(5) 6-mos 0.300.350.36(1) 9-mos 0.350.400.373 1 yr 0.400.500.3911 15-mos 0.450.550.514 18-mos 0.500.600.64(4) 2 yr 0.650.750.90(15) 2.5 yr 0.901.001.13(13) 3 yr 1.101.201.37(17) 3.5 yr 1.301.401.59(19) 4 yr 1.501.601.81(21) 5 yr 1.851.952.12(17) 7 yr 2.402.502.68(18) 10 yr 3.053.153.27(12) Note: Calendar convention for CD rates are Actual/365, UST are Actual/Actual, Swaps are 30/360 & FHLB-Bost are Actual/360.
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35 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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36 Blend and Extend Strategy Old advance is closed out and new advance is initiated at par value. There is no cash settlement of the prepayment fee. The prepayment fee is then “blended” into the rate of a new advance. The term of the new advance is selected to take advantage of the current low rate environment and minimize the annual impact of the penalty.
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37 Blend and Extend Results Lower advance costs and improved net interest margin. Allows liability sensitive institution to extend duration of advances without increasing total advances outstanding. No accounting concerns if structured correctly. Lock in today’s low rates.
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38 Blend and Extend Example Current Structure After Restructure Par Value $15,000,000 Interest Rate 4.06%2.64% Prepayment Fees $664,833 Included in the new interest rate Years to Maturity 1.2 Years3.0 Years Annual Savings $213,000
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39 Blend and Extend Example
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40 Blend and Extend Example
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41 Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives
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Derivatives Fixed Rate Loan Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Borrower Institution Receive Fixed % Customer Desires Fixed Rate Loan
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Derivatives Fixed Rate Loan Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Borrower Institution Receive Fixed % Pay Fixed Receive LIBOR Floating Swap Loan Receipt to Floating
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Derivatives - Results of Swap Fixed Rate Loan Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Borrower Institution Receive Fixed 4.50% Pay Fixed 4.50% Receive 1M LIBOR + 2.84% Floating Pay Fixed Loan Rate: 4.50% Amount: $5,000,000 Amortization: 20 years Maturity: 5 years Hedged Transaction Loan: Receive Fixed 4.50% Swap: Pay Fixed (4.50%) Receive 1M Libor+2.84% 2.99% Net Floating Cash Flow 2.99%
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45 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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46 Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions
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47 Alternate Rate Scenarios Historical Transitions Bear / Bull Worst Case
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48 Alternate Rate Scenarios Bear Flattener When short term interest rates rise faster than long term interest rates Bear Steepener When long term interest rates rise faster than short term interest rates Bull Flattener When the shape of the yield curve flattens as a result of long term interest rates falling faster than short term interest rates Bull Steepener When short term interest rates fall faster than long term interest rates
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49 Alternate Rate Scenarios
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50 Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions
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51 Asset Growth Growth AssumptionsTotal Total Asset Growth$162.8MM Cash/Fed Funds$36.0MM Securities$4.0MM Loans$122.8MM Funded ByTotal Non Interest Bearing DDA$38.2MM Interest Bearing DDA$53.4MM CDs/IRAs$67.9MM FHLB/Other($5.9MM) Equity$9.2MM
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52 Asset Growth Growth AssumptionsTotal Total Asset Growth$162.8MM Cash/Fed Funds$36.0MM Securities$4.0MM Loans$122.8MM Funded ByTotal Non Interest Bearing DDA$38.2MM Interest Bearing DDA$53.4MM CDs/IRAs$67.9MM FHLB/Other($5.9MM) Equity$9.2MM NII Impact of $2.9MM
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53 Asset Growth - NII
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54 Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions
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55 Deposit Migration Current PositionTotal Total Non-Interest DDA$245.9MM Interest Bearing DDA/MMDA/Savings$575.7MM Customer Repo$47.3MM Deposit ChangesMigrationCost Migrate 20% of Non-Interest DDA to Premier Savings $49.2MM16bps Replace Non-Interest DDA with FHLB Advance $15.0MM261bps Replace Customer Repo with FHLB Advance $15.0MM242bps
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56 Deposit Migration Current PositionTotal Total Non-Interest DDA$245.9MM Interest Bearing DDA/MMDA/Savings$575.7MM Customer Repo$47.3MM Deposit ChangesMigrationCost Migrate 20% of Non-Interest DDA to Premier Savings $49.2MM16bps Replace Non-Interest DDA with FHLB Advance $15.0MM261bps Replace Customer Repo with FHLB Advance $15.0MM242bps Impact to NII ($0.834MM) And EVE ($7.2MM)
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57 Deposit Migration - NII
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58 Deposit Migration - EVE
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59 Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions
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60 Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions
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61 Beta Stress Test Assumptions Regular Betas Stressed Betas Interest Paying DDA9%15% MMDA75%85% Savings30%60% Premier Savings80%90% Christmas Club30%60% Customer Repo80%90%
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62 Beta Stress Test - NII
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63 Average Life Stress Test Assumptions Regular Average Life Stressed Average Life Non Interest Deposits63 Interest Paying DDA52 MMDA32 Savings63 Premier Savings32 Christmas Club63 Customer Repo32
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64 Average Life Stress Test - EVE
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65 The Cost of Being Wrong Impact to: Earnings Liquidity Position Risk Profile (NII and EVE)
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66 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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67 Other Regulatory Concerns Assumption inputs, documentation, and presentation Stress testing betas, average lives, and prepayment speeds Concern with market value losses Setting policy limits Back testing Liquidity
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68 Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns
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