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Published byVictoria Bell Modified over 9 years ago
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The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy Ben Kirtman Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies And George Mason University
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Science Questions How Does Internal Atmospheric Dynamics Impact Climate Variability? –Is ENSO Stochastically Driven or Self- Sustained? –How Do Errors in Internal Atmospheric Dynamics Impact Climate Predictability? Is it Possible to Combine Multiple Imperfect Climate Models to Improve Climate Simulations and Better Quantify Uncertainty?
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Standard Approach A Posteriori Combinations of Ensemble Realizations (Coupled and Uncoupled) –Does Not Isolate How Internal Dynamics Impacts Evolution of the Coupled System Want to Employ Ensemble Averaging As the Coupled System Evolves
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CAM MOM Heat Flux Momentum Flux SST CAM_MOM3
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COLA MOM Heat Flux Momentum Flux SST COLA_MOM3
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CAMCOLA MOM Heat Flux Momentum Flux SST CAM_COLA_MOM3
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CAMCOLA MOM Heat Flux Momentum Flux SST COLA_CAM_MOM3
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Computational Issues (I) Load Balance Between Oceanic and Atmospheric Components –More Processors Communication of Coupling Information –Frequency Can be a Problem Data Management –Dataportal (little MSS)
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Computational Issues (II) Use (Prospect) Blackforest, Bluesky –Conversion from Compaq to IBM Difficult Communication: Did Not Know the Right Questions to Ask
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Computational Issues (II) Use (Prospect) Blackforest, Bluesky –Conversion from Compaq to IBM Difficult Communication: Did Not Know the Right Questions to Ask Documentation Incomplete (e.g., loadleveler geometry) Consulting Support Excellent Usage (Typically 1 Node for each Component) –Blackforest: 4x75 min/simulation month (for each atmosphere) and 4x75 (for each ocean) –Bluesky: 8x20 min /simulation month (for each atmosphere) and 8x20 (for each ocean)
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Example of CPU (GAU) Usage Bluesky 12 Atmospheres and 1 Ocean 100 year simulation 13 * 8 * 20 min/month * 1200 month = 41,600 CPU hours In Regular Queue Simulation Takes about 30-50 days In Practice We Get About 2-3 Experiments Completed Per Year This Should Double Every Year Over the Next 5 Years
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Data Management Some Reliance on MSS –Primarily Job Recovery Initially ftp’d Data Back to COLA Access to dataportal Grads-Dods-Server (GDS) Has Changed My Life Heavy usage of /ptmp
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Concluding Remarks NCAR Facility Ideal for Testing Interactive Ensemble Coupling Strategy Demand on Computing to Steadily Increase Over the Next 5 Years Need for Local Visualization of Remote Data Large and Increasing
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