1. NJ SHARES 2007 Evaluation October 25, 2007

2. Evaluation Goals Characterize NJ SHARES grant recipients Characterize NJ SHARES grants Examine good faith payments Analyze post-grant payment compliance 2

3. Evaluation Components Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis –Characterizes grant recipients –Characterizes grants Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis –“Good Faith” Payment Analysis –Grant Coverage Analysis –Post-Grant Payment Compliance 3

4. Evaluation Components Data received from: –Elizabethtown Gas –JCP&L –NJNG –PSE&G –SJG 4

5. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Counts by Utility 5 Utility Number of Grants Percent of All Grants Grant Dollars Percent of Grant Dollars Atlantic City Electric 8226%$272,4123% Elizabethtown 7276%$366,7735% JCP&L 8106%$245,5463% NJNG 5084%$283,0254% PSE&G 9,36972%$6,267,77479% Rockland 35<1%$9,947<1% SJG 8266%$448,9426% TOTAL 13,097100%$7,894,419100%

6. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Q1 Grant Counts by Type 6 TypeQ1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007 Electric Only 26815%68317%71519% Gas Only 28716%75619%83222% Electric & Gas 1,18066%2,41661%2,03155% Electric Heat 453%1133%1404% TOTAL 1,7803,9683,718

7. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Counts by County 7 County Number Served Percent of Total County Number Served Percent of Total Atlantic3352.6%Middlesex1,2419.5% Bergen6434.9%Monmouth4663.6% Burlington5204.0%Morris2521.9% Camden9066.9%Ocean4133.2% Cape May760.6%Passaic6875.3% Cumberland2722.0%Salem670.5% Essex2,91622.3%Somerset3762.9% Glouchester5083.9%Sussex550.4% Hudson1,2469.5%Union1,0387.9% Hunterdon140.1%Warren530.4% Mercer1,0137.7%TOTAL13,097100.0%

8. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Years Received Grants, 2005-2007 8 Number of YearsPercent of Grant Recipients 1 Year87% 2 Years11% 3 Years2%

9. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Members Contributing to Income 9 Household Members2005 Recipients2006 Recipients None <1 %0% One 75%73% Two 22%24% Three or More 3% Mean Number 1.3

10. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Income Sources 10 Income Source2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Employment 88%89% Pension or Social Security 12% Unemployment Compensation 6%5% Disability 5%4% Child Support4% Other 3%

11. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Annual Household Income 11 Annual Household Income2005 Recipients2006 Recipients < $10,000<1%0% $10,000 - $19,9999%6% $20,000 - $29,99931%28% $30,000 - $39,99928%29% $40,000 +31%38% Mean Annual Income$35,942$38,921

12. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level 12 Household Poverty Level2005 Recipients2006 Recipients <175%6% 175% - 199%26%24% 200% - 249%32% 250% - 299%17%16% 300% +19%22% Mean Poverty Level251%257%

13. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition 13 Household Composition2005 Recipients2006 Recipients <6 Years Old29%26% ≤ 18 Years Old61%60% > 60 Years Old8% Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

14. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition 14 Household Composition2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Single Parent14%13% Elderly Only4%5% Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.

15. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level 15 Household Poverty Level Household Composition 2005 Recipients2006 Recipients All ≤ 18 Years Old > 60 Years Old All ≤ 18 Years Old > 60 Years Old <175%6% 7% 6% 7%5% 175% - 199%26% 29%25% 24% 27%26% 200% - 249%32% 33%31% 32% 33%32% 250% - 299%17% 16% 300% +19% 15%21% 22% 16%21%

16. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level 16 Household Poverty Level Household Composition 2005 Recipients2006 Recipients All Single Parent Elderly Only All Single Parent Elderly Only <175%6% 12%8% 6% 11%5% 175% - 199%26% 35%25% 24% 34%26% 200% - 249%32% 33% 32% 34%32% 250% - 299%17% 11% 16% 13%16% 300% +19% 9%22% 8%21%

17. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Household Size 17 Household Size2005 Recipients2006 Recipients 126%22% 230% 321%22% 414%15% 5 +9%10% Mean Size2.52.7

18. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Main Heating Fuel 18 Main Heating Fuel2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Natural Gas82%83% Electric13%11% Oil5% Propane<1% Other<1%

19. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 19 Reported Bill Balance2005 Recipients2006 Recipients < $2508% $250 - $49925%20% $500 - $74923%22% $750 - $99916%15% $1,000 +29%35% Mean Balance$892$993

20. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 20 Bill Balance Percent of Federal Poverty Level < 175%175-199%200-249 %250-299%300% + < $50032%29%28%27%25% $500 - $74922% 21% 22% $750 +46%49%50%52% Mean Balance$976$985$977$1,003$1,021

21. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 21 Grant Type2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Electric Only$563$566 Gas Only$654$740 Electric & Gas$1,108$1,268 Electric Heat$831$823 All Grants$892$993

22. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Grant Application for 2005-2006 Recipients 22 Collections Actions2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Shut-Off Date Passed26%49% Shut-Off Date Not Passed20%22% Past Due Warning Notice47%18% Utility Shut-Off0%9% Past Due Balance8%3% Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

23. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Reason for Grant Application 23 Reason for Application2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Temporary Financial Crisis60%68% High Energy Costs27%24% Medical/Health7%5% Unemployment3%2% Other3%2%

24. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2006 Recipient “Other” Reasons for Grant Application –Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby in the home) –Meter read after months of low, estimated bills –Car repairs –Over income limit for LIHEAP –Mortgage, rent, or child support arrearages or increases –Medical costs –Emergency travel expenses to visit sick family overseas –Home repairs –Change in work hours –Moving costs –High college tuition bills 24

25. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Grant Amounts 25 Grant Amount2005 Recipients2006 Recipients < $30045%14% $300<1%14% $301 - $69955%28% $7000%10% $700 - $9990%12% $1,0000%22% Mean Grant$373$603

26. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Amounts 26 Grant Amount Grant Type Electric OnlyGas OnlyElectric & GasElectric Heat < $30033%18%5%11% $30067%<1% 1% $301 - $6990%43%33%40% $700<1%40%<1%48% $700 - $9990%<1%22%<1% $1,0000% 40%0% Mean Grant$268$531$764$563

27. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Mean Grant Amount by Utility 27 Utility2005 Recipients2006 Recipients Atlantic City Electric $286$331 Elizabethtown $237$504 JCP&L $278$303 NJNG $246$557 PSE&G $420$669 Rockland $237$284 SJG $236$544

28. Utility Data Analysis Methodology Focused on Q1 2006 grant recipients Transaction data from participating utilities Files contain payments, charges, account balances Analyzed: –Existence of “Good Faith Payment” –Grant coverage of pre-grant balances –Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals Used Q1 2005 and Q1 2007 recipients as comparison groups 28

29. Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions 29 Q1 2006 Recipient Comparison Group Q1 2005 Recipient Comparison Group Q1 2007 Recipient Comparison Group Accounts Included All Q1 2006 grant recipients Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2005 only Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2007 that did not receive grants in Q1 2006 Analysis Period Starts1 day following grant 1 year + 1 day after grant 1 year + 1 day before grant Analysis Period Ends 1 year + 1 day after grant 2 years + 1 day after grant 1 day before grant Analysis Period SpanQ1 2006 – Q1 2007

30. Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions (continued) 30 2005 Q1 2006 ANALYSIS PERIOD Q1 2005 ANALYSIS PERIOD Q1 2007 ANALYSIS PERIOD GRANT DATE GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAY GRANT DATE + 1 DAY GRANT DATE GRANT DATE – 1 DAY 2006 2007 GRANT DATE + 1 DAY GRANT DATE 1 YEAR

31. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Attrition Analysis 31 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients Number Submitted 3,8572,898 Number Returned 2,8892,492 Eligible for Analysis* 1,4452,108 Percent of Requested Accounts 37%73% * An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

32. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition 32 The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account. Only payments made by the customer are counted. INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS INTAKE DATE GRANT DATE “GOOD FAITH” PERIOD GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

33. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Percent Making “Good Faith” Payment 33 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients 96%

34. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis 34 PaymentsQ1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients $02% $1 - $992% $10011%13% $101 - $25026%25% $251 - $50034%30% $501 +25%29% Mean Payment$394$424

35. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2006 Recipients 35 Payments Federal Poverty Level < 175%175-199%200-249%250-299%≥ 300% $06%4%2% <1% $1 - $995%3%2% <1% $1008%13%11%9%10% $101 - $25036%25%27%28%24% $251 - $50027%38%33%34% $501 +19%17%26% 31% Mean Payment$320$353$399$408$428

36. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2007 Recipients 36 Payments Federal Poverty Level < 175%*175-199%200-249%250-299%≥ 300% $00%2%1%2%1% $1 - $990%2% $1000%15%13% 10% $101 - $2500%27%26% 22% $251 - $5000%28%30%26%33% $501 +100%26%28%31%33% Mean Payment$1,030$391$405$435$476 *Note: Only two Q1 2007 recipients in the data had a household poverty level of less than 175%.

37. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100 37 PaymentsQ1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients 25 th Percentile11 50 th Percentile22 75 th Percentile33 Mean Number of Payments2.42.7

38. Grant Coverage Analysis Attrition Analysis 38 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients Number Submitted 3,8572,898 Number Returned 2,8892,492 Eligible for Analysis* 1,8342,203 Percent of Requested Accounts 48%79% * An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

39. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage 39 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients Mean Pre-Grant Balance $892$1,086 Mean Grant $500$612 Mean Post-Grant Balance $392$473 Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 67%59%

40. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Coverage Distribution 40 Percentile 10%25%50%75%90% Pre-Grant Balance $280$469$762$1,145$1,662 Grant $233$274$449$700$991 Post-Grant Balance -$28$49$250$561$1,027 Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 28%42%64%88%103%

41. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage Distribution 41 Percentile 10%25%50%75%90% Pre-Grant Balance $354$573$921$1,380$1,959 Grant $272$330$656$827$1,000 Post-Grant Balance -$1$70$294$636$1,159 Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 34%48%64%86%100%

42. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage 42 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat Mean Pre-Grant Balance $739$824$1,187$777$687$966$1,319$982 Mean Grant $261$496$766$514$271$555$777$558 Mean Post-Grant Balance $478$328$421$263$417$411$542$424 Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 58%65%77%76%51%46%70%74%

43. Payment Compliance Analysis Attrition Analysis 43 Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Number Submitted 1,3113,8572,898 Number Returned 7292,8892,492 Accounts with Usable Data* 6402,4302,209 Amount of Data Available for Analysis 3 Months 4261,7411,297 6 Months 4101,6791,251 9 Months 3891,5941,220 12 Months 3721,5131,149 Percent of Requested Accounts 28%39%40% * An account has usable data if it appears to have received the NJ SHARES grant and if we were able to duplicate the utility- reported account balances.

44. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid 44 Q1 2005 RecipientsQ1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients 3 Months 151%87%129% 6 Months 137%94%128% 9 Months 123%89%108% 12 Months103%84%83%

45. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid, Accounts with 12 Months of Data 45 Q1 2005 RecipientsQ1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients 3 Months 148%87%130% 6 Months 134%94%127% 9 Months 122%89%108% 12 Months103%84%83%

46. Payment Compliance Analysis Percent Paying ≥ 100% and ≥ 90%, Accounts with 12 Months of Data 46 Q1 2005 RecipientsQ1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 Recipients Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90% 3 Months 67%72%30%38%60%66% 6 Months 67%77%35%47%63%72% 9 Months 71%85%29%46%56%67% 12 Months 55%78%20%40%15%31%

47. Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid, Recipients with 12 Months of Data 47 Percent of Bills Paid Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients < 50% 1%7% 50% - 75% 5%25%28% 76% - 90% 16%28%35% 91% - 99%23%21%16% 100% + 55%20%15% Mean 103%84%83%

48. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance 48 Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Starting Balance $569$274$579 3 Months $397$355$500 6 Months $343$341$413 9 Months $307$407$495 12 Months$500$590$933

49. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance, Accounts with 12 Months of Data 49 Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Starting Balance $542$272$559 3 Months $392$357$476 6 Months $350$340$409 9 Months $309$402$494 12 Months$500$590$933

50. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients 50

51. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) 51 Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2031881121,010 Percent of Customers 13%12%7%67% Mean Pre-Grant Balance $546$1,406$815$875 Mean Grant Amount $400$497$418$533 Mean Post-Grant Balance$147$909$396$342 Mean Number of Payments*10 9 Mean Percent of Bills Paid104%113%96%73% * Note: Only customer payments are counted.

52. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) 52 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 458435117 Percent of Customers 30%29%8% Mean Pre-Grant Balance $744$921$1,217 Mean Grant Amount $451$590$645 Mean Post-Grant Balance$293$331$571 Mean Number of Payments*997 Mean Percent of Bills Paid83%68%51% * Note: Only customer payments are counted.

53. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) 53 Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2031881121,010 Percent of Customers 13%12%7%67% Mean Starting Balance$84$795$267$213 Mean Ending Balance-$14$515$315$756 Percent Paying ≥ 90%84%100%92%15% Percent Paying ≥ 100%53%100%0%

54. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) 54 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 458435117 Percent of Customers 30%29%8% Mean Starting Balance$190$185$414 Mean Ending Balance$427$812$1,841 Percent Paying ≥ 90%32%<1%0% Percent Paying ≥ 100%0%

55. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2031881121,010 Percent of Customers 13%12%7%67% Median Annual Income $33,924$37,056$38,100$35,004 < 175% FPL 4%5%3%5% 175% – 199% FPL 24%25%18%22% 200% - 249% FPL32%40%36%33% 250% - 299% FPL17%10%18%16% ≥ 300% FPL23%20%26%24% Percent Single-Parent10%12%9%13% Percent Elderly-Only9%4%6%

56. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) 56 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 458435117 Percent of Customers 30%29%8% Median Annual Income $34,170$35,220$36,312 < 175% FPL 5% 3% 175% – 199% FPL 21%24%19% 200% - 249% FPL34%31%38% 250% - 299% FPL16% 15% ≥ 300% FPL25%23%25% Percent Single-Parent13% 10% Percent Elderly-Only4%8%

57. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued) Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat Ending Balance <$10018% 14%8% 11% Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 15% 13% 9%16% Balance Increased by < $10011% 6% 5%8% Balance Increased by ≥ $100 57% 67% 77% 65% Total 100% 100.00

58. Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the 12 Months Following Grant 58 UtilityPercent Receiving USF or LIHEAP Elizabethtown 5% JCP&L 8% NJNG 7% PSE&G 10% SJG 12% TOTAL 9%

59. Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the “Good Faith” Period 59 UtilityPercent Receiving USF or LIHEAP Elizabethtown 0% JCP&L 1% NJNG 0% PSE&G 3% SJG 4% TOTAL 2%