1. Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities Ulka Kelkar Associate Fellow TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India

2. ECHAM4 HadCM2 CGCM1 Country-level Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s Who is more vulnerable?

3.  Identifying vulnerability  Who and what are vulnerable to the projected impacts? How vulnerable?  Understanding vulnerability  What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability?  Addressing vulnerability  How can appropriate adaptation efforts / policies be developed? Presentation context and outline

4. Identifying vulnerability: Observation

5. Retreat of the Gangotri glacier Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

6. Invasion of chir into oak in Uttarkashi

7. Identifying vulnerability: Modelling

8. Impact of climate change on water and agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal

11. Identifying vulnerability: Indices and mapping

13. Vulnerability index for Indian coastline  share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993)  share of population affected in total population of district  district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000)  district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)

14. Coastal districts with high economic activity Ranking of districts  urbanization  industrialization  agriculture/ aquaculture  port activity  tourism

15. Coastal districts with stressed ecosystems Indicators of ecosystem health  coastal water  dissolved oxygen, BOD, pH value  heavy metals, dissolved Fe, Mn  colour, odour, turbidity, suspended solids, etc  groundwater  depth to water table, rainfall recharge, aquifer type  pH value, coliform count, dissolved solids, nitrates  specific conductivity, hardness, Na level, etc  mangrove vegetation  area, number of species, luxuriance

16. Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability Soil degradation and cover Groundwater availability Social vulnerability Agricultural workers and labourers Literacy Gender discrimination Child mortality and fertility Technological vulnerability Irrigation Infrastructure

17. Climate sensitivity index Observed (1961-90)HadRM2 (2 x CO 2 )

18. Identifying vulnerability: ‘Double exposure’

19. Elements of vulnerability profiles Adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability Soil degradation and cover Groundwater availability Social vulnerability Agricultural workers and labourers Literacy Gender discrimination Child mortality and fertility Technological vulnerability Irrigation Infrastructure Globalization vulnerability Climate change vulnerability Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness) Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

20. Vulnerability profiles Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity

21. Cyclones map

22. Jhalawar, Rajasthan drought prone low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure Chitradurga, Karnataka water scarcity proximity to city contract farming and exports Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh semi-arid response of groundnut farmers to import competition Jagatsingpur, Orissa cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves) high population density acute poverty proximity to port Raipur, Chattisgarh rice belt of central India crop diversification low literacy, infrastructure

23. Understanding vulnerability: Local and community focus

24. A tale of two villages Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming only Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks Landless labourers – seasonal migration Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures No long-term adaptive solutions Anghora: head-end of dam Access to irrigation opens up range of coping options Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets) Mixed farming of oranges and soybean

25. Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern TimannahalliMahadevpura 9 3 41 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 farmers educated above Xth standard farmers educated below Xth standard 9 6 5 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 farmers educated above Xth standard farmers educated below Xth standard mechanised non-mechanised groundnut 48% onion 17% sunflower 11% paddy 9% jowar 2% ragi 11% maize 2% groundnut 34% sunflower 10% paddy 10% jowar 4% ragi 13% sericulture10% gram 5% arecanut4% coconut 4% fruits and plantation crops 6%

26. New opportunities – and risks MNC contract farming for exports– gherkins grown by marginal farmers in Chitradurga Deterioration of markets for traditional fragrant varieties of rice in Raipur Shift to prawn cultivation in Jagatsingpur: greater economic vulnerability in long run?

27. Insights from multi-tiered approach  Understanding impacts at individual/ community level (rather than sectoral/ regional levels)  Fortify current coping capacity (e.g. crop insurance, seed banks, alternative employment options, access to inputs and markets)  Factors that change vulnerability over time  Relevant roles could be played by –voluntary agencies – seed banks in Raipur –corporates – contract farming and farmer centres in Chitradurga –government – agricultural extension, benefits of irrigation subsidies, food-for-work schemes

28. Addressing vulnerability

29. Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples  Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers –Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs  Cross-sectoral dialogue –Tail-end villages in command area  Agri-based industries and markets –Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills  Support for traditional options –Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in homestead  Development is the best form of adaptation –Education, health facilities, electricity, roads

30. Developing adaptation efforts  Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability  Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses  Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change  Adapting to climate variability and climate change  Adaptation and sustainable development policies

31. Future research directions Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach –Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events –Application to other sectors / specific regions –Econometric modelling of determinants of vulnerability Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues) Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options

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