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Garmin, Ltd. NASDAQ: GRMN $46
Garmin, Ltd. NASDAQ: GRMN $46.22 (as of 4/5) Initiating Coverage at SELL Price Target = $43.50
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Agenda Declining Core Business Growth Opportunities Not Enough
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
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Agenda Declining Core Business Growth Opportunities Not Enough
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
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Agenda Declining Core Business Growth Opportunities Not Enough
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
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Personal Navigation Devices
Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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PND Segment Decline… $2.6B $1.5B millions
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PND Segment Decline…Not Over
$2.6B $1.5B millions $650MM
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Disruptive Technology
Google Android iPhone iPad
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Garmin Stock Price & Events 6/09 – 4/05/2012
GRMN Nasdaq End of Day 4/05/2012
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Google Navigation Announcement & Tom-Tom slashes prices Garmin down 16
Oct 28, 2009 GRMN
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Q1 2011 Earnings & T-Mobile Deal Garmin Down 14%
May 5, 2010 GRMN
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GRMN Underperformed the Market
June – Aug 2011 Nasdaq GRMN
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Dividends & Growth? Garmin up 67% from 8/11 – 4/05/12
Aug 2011 – Apr. 5, 2012 GRMN Nasdaq
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FUTURE
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PND Segment Incremental EBITDA Erosion ($Mm) Cumulative EBITDA Total
FY 2012E EBITDA ($29) FY 2013E EBITDA ($65) FY 2014E EBITDA ($104) FY 2015E EBITDA ($129) Cumulative EBITDA Total ($326) PND EBITDA Erosion -$320 Mm
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Mixed Product Success Garmin unsuccessful in markets they do not create Smartphone “Nuvifone” Infotainment? Dominant in markets they create General Aviation Runners’ Watch
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Mixed Product Success Garmin unsuccessful in markets they do not create Smartphone “Nuvifone” Infotainment? Dominant in markets they create General Aviation Runners’ Watch
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Aviation Steady cash flows Market share 80% in retrofit 70% in OEM Slow growth for General Aviation Highly entrenched competitors in cargo and commercial Disproportionate amount of R&D spending Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Aviation Steady cash flows Market share 80% in retrofit 70% in OEM Slow growth for General Aviation Highly entrenched competitors in cargo and commercial Disproportionate amount of R&D spending Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Aviation Steady cash flows Market share
80% in retrofit 70% in OEM Slow growth for General Aviation Highly entrenched competitors in cargo and commercial Disproportionate amount of R&D spending
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Aviation Steady cash flows Market share
80% in retrofit 70% in OEM Slow growth for General Aviation Highly entrenched competitors in cargo and commercial Disproportionate amount of R&D spending
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Aviation Steady cash flows Market share
80% in retrofit 70% in OEM Slow growth for General Aviation Highly entrenched competitors in cargo and commercial Disproportionate amount of R&D spending
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Marine Gained small Marine market share 15%-20% of market Market is currently in downturn No signs of short term recovery Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Marine Gained small Marine market share 15%-20% of market Market is currently in downturn No signs of short term recovery Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Aviation & Marine Incremental EBITDA Gain ($Mm)
FY 2012E EBITDA $3 FY 2013E EBITDA $22 FY 2014E EBITDA $27 FY 2015E EBITDA $36 Cumulative EBITDA Total $88
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Garmin Outdoor Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Garmin Outdoor Industry leader in product innovation & quality
Highest ASP’s ($223) 75% market share Healthy Foothold Slow-growth industry Unit Sales 2.5% Y/Y
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Garmin Outdoor Industry leader in product innovation & quality
Highest ASP’s ($223) 75% market share Healthy Foothold Slow-growth industry Unit Sales 2.5% Y/Y
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Garmin Outdoor Industry leader in product innovation & quality
Highest ASP’s ($223) 75% market share Healthy Foothold Slow-growth industry Unit Sales 2.5% Y/Y
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Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total)
Garmin Fitness Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Historical Dominance Industry leader in quality and ASP’s ($219)
Highly profitable FY 2011 Gross Margins 61% Few competitors Nike/TomTom partnership enter space Q2 2011
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Historical Dominance Industry leader in quality and ASP’s ($219)
Highly profitable FY 2011 Gross Margins 61% Few competitors Nike/TomTom partnership enter space Q2 2011
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Historical Dominance Industry leader in quality and ASP’s ($219)
Highly profitable FY 2011 Gross Margins 61% Few competitors Nike/TomTom partnership announced Q2 2011
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Nike + TomTom = Profit Erosion
Nike’s brand name with TomTom as technological competitor will erode customer base Smartphone Apps and Nike + Nike advertising campaign will dominate GRMN efforts
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Nike + TomTom = Profit Erosion
Nike’s brand name with TomTom as technological competitor will erode customer base Smartphone Apps and Nike + Nike advertising campaign will dominate GRMN efforts
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Nike + TomTom = Profit Erosion
Nike’s brand name with TomTom as technological competitor will erode customer base Smartphone Apps and Nike + Nike advertising campaign will dominate GRMN efforts
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FY2012 Will Be Most Costly Year for Fitness Segment
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Higher Costs + Lower ASP’s Margin Pressure
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Outdoor & Fitness Incremental EBITDA Erosion (Mm)
FY 2012E EBITDA $1.2 FY 2013E EBITDA ($3.6) FY 2014E EBITDA ($9.5) FY 2015E EBITDA ($14.0) Cumulative EBITDA Total ($25.9)
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Auto OEM / Infotainment Segment
Current Strategy OEM Software/ maps packages Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep & VW models ASPs ~ $130 Operating Margins ~ 20% 1 million units = $26 million in Op. Income Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Auto OEM / Infotainment Segment
Current Strategy OEM Software/ maps packages Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep & VW models ASPs ~ $130 Operating Margins ~ 20% 1 million units = $26 million in Op. Income Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 10.5% Auto OEM 0%
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Auto OEM / Infotainment Segment
Future Growth Strategy Fully Integrated Infotainment console Partnering with Panasonic and Kenwood Reason for optimism in industry – 10%+ CAGR Aggressive action in FY2011
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Auto OEM / Infotainment Segment
Future Growth Strategy Fully Integrated Infotainment console Partnering with Panasonic and Kenwood Reason for optimism in industry – 10%+ CAGR Aggressive action in FY2011
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“K2/Everest” Prototype 2012 CES Conference in Las Vegas
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Economic Forces against Growth
Entrenched Competition with Dominant Market Shares
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Economic Forces against Growth
Entrenched Competition Integration, Execution, and Regulatory Risks Achieving Tier 1 Supplier status Long sales cycles with Auto Manufacturers Safety Issues and Concerns Substitutable / Disruptive Technologies In-dash bracket + mobile tablet device FREE Navigation App = Value Proposition
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Economic Forces against Growth
Entrenched Competition Integration, Execution, and Regulatory Risks Achieving Tier 1 Supplier status Long sales cycles with Auto Manufacturers Safety Issues and Concerns Substitutable / Disruptive Technologies In-dash bracket + mobile tablet device FREE Navigation App = Value Proposition
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Auto OEM / Infotainment Incremental EBITDA Gain ($Mm)
FY 2012E EBITDA - FY 2013E EBITDA $30 FY 2014E EBITDA $44 FY 2015E EBITDA $54 Cumulative EBITDA Total $128
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$136Mm EBITDA Shortfall!
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How does Garmin overcome the $136Mm EBITDA shortfall over the next four years?
Innovation: Auto OEM segment ASPs ~ $400 Operating Margins ~ 10% 1 million vehicle units = $40M Op. Income Unrealistic market share expectations $264Mm EBITDA = 6.6 million units 3.3Mm units annually = 65% addressable market share We project between 15%-20%
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How does Garmin overcome the $136Mm EBITDA shortfall over the next four years?
Innovation: Auto OEM segment ASPs ~ $400 Operating Margins ~ 10% 1 million vehicle units = $40M Op. Income Unrealistic market share expectations $264Mm EBITDA = 6.6 million units 3.3Mm units annually = 65% addressable market share Aggressively projecting between 15%-20% share by 2015
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Valuation Sum-of-the-Parts Most Accurate Method
Different segment markets Different competitive landscapes Different growth rates for segments
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Valuation Sum-of-the-Parts Most Accurate Method
Different segment markets Different competitive landscapes Different growth rates for segments
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Valuation Sum-of-the-Parts Most Accurate Method
Different segment markets Different competitive landscapes Different growth rates for segments
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
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Segment Contributions to $43.50 Price Target
Total $43.62
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Summary Declining Core Business Growth Opportunities Not Enough
Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
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Q & A Appendices Outline Declining Core Growth Opportunities Valuation
Methods Sensitivity Analysis Outline Declining Core Stock Graph Growth Opportunities Outdoor Fitness Aviation Marine Infotainment Valuation Sum of Parts Total Other Valuations International PND/Infotainment Assumptions Outdoor/Fitness Assumptions Marine Assumptions Aviation Assumptions Pro Forma Income Statement Segment Contribution Summary
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Valuation Methods PND Aviation Marine Outdoor Fitness
7x TEV/EBITDA multiple Competitor: TomTom Aviation DCF with 0.5% terminal growth rate Marine 8.4x TEV/EBITDA multiple Competitors: Johnson Outdoor, Raymarine (FLIR) and Lowrance Outdoor DCF with 1% terminal growth rate Fitness DCF with 1.5% terminal growth rate Auto OEM/Infotainment
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Other Valuation Methods
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PND/Infotainment Segment Assumptions
PND BASE ASSUMPTIONS FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E FY 2015E Market Share 38% 39.0% 40.0% ASP $ $ $ $ Change ASP -6.5% -8.0% Change Unit Cost -10.1% -10.0% EBIT Margin 15.0% 14.0% EBIT Multiple 7.0x AUTO OEM ASSUMPTIONS Vehicle Prod Growth 2.5% USA Manf % Units 32.0% 35.0% 37.0% 19.0% 20.0% 25.0% Non-US Units (Mm) 0.35 0.5 0.75 1 $ $ $ $ Gross Margin 30.0% Operating Margin 18.0% 10.0%
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Outdoor/Fitness Segment Assumptions
Base Assumptions FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E FY 2015E Outdoor Unit Sales Growth 4.0% 2.5% 2.0% Outdoor Average Sales Price Growth -1.0% Outdoor COGS as % of Rev 38.0% Outdoor Advertising Expense as % of Gross Income 9.0% 10.0% Outdoor S,G, & A Expense as % of Gross Income 22.0% Outdoor R & D Expense as % of Gross Income 8.5% Fitness Unit Sales Growth 5.0% 3.5% Fitness Average Sales Price Growth -5.0% Fitness COGS as % of Rev 42.0% 45.0% 48.0% 50.0% Fitness Advertising Expense as % of Gross Income 14.0% Fitness S,G, & A Expense as % of Gross Income 24.5% Fitness R & D Expense as % of Gross Income 16.0%
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Marine Segment Assumptions
Gross Margins……… % Operating Margins….25-35% Sales Growth…………Stagnant to 10% Acquisition……………Bull Case Multiple………………..Based on Lowrance/Navico deal (8.4x forward EBITDA)
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Aviation Segment Assumptions
Base Case Bear Case Bull Case Growth as % of GA 1.0% 0% 2% Growth in ASP $150 $120 $180 COGS as % of Revenue 32% 34% 30% R&D as % of Revenue 35% 38%
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Competition Aviation: Honeywell, Rockwell-Collins, Aspen
Marine: FLIR, Navico, Johnson Outdoors Auto: TomTom, Harman, Continental, Bosch Fitness: Nike, TomTom, Polar, Timex
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International Opportunities
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Pro Forma Income Statement
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Segment Contributions and Margins
Segment Data (as of FY2011) Revenue Contribution (% of Total) Gross Margins Operating Margins Income Contribution (% of Total) PND 56.7% 33.6% 15.0% 39.6% Aviation 11.2% 67.5% 27.3% 13.4% Marine 8.5% 57.6% 26.7% 12.2% Outdoor 13.2% 64.0% 38.7% 24.2% Fitness 10.4% 58.0% 20.5% 10.5% Auto OEM 0% -
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