1. 1 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change: Tackling Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Christa Clapp, U.S. EPA U.S. Embassy, Paris July 12, 2007

2. 2 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Overview Importance of non-CO 2 GHGs Technical and economic analysis of non-CO 2 GHGs Inventory Projections Mitigation Scenarios Addressing project level barriers through voluntary partnerships Conclusions

3. 3 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Importance of Non-CO 2 GHGs

4. 4 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Non-CO 2 Gases - Important Contributors to GHG Effect Non-CO 2 GHGs have contributed ~30% of total anthropogenic emissions since pre-industrial times Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect from Pre-industrial to Present (measured in watts/meter 2 ) (IPCC)

5. 5 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Increasing Concentrations of GHGs in the Atmosphere Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 Now far exceed pre-industrial values as determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

6. 6 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Non-CO 2 Gases Vary in Potency & Atmospheric Lifetime Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential for 100 years Atmospheric Lifetime (years) Carbon DioxideCO 2 150-200 MethaneCH 4 2112 +/- 3 Nitrous OxideN2O310120 HydrofluorocarbonsHFCs140 - 11,7001.5 - 264 PerfluorocarbonsPFCs6,500 - 9,2003,200 - 50,000 Sulfur HexafluorideSF 6 23,9003,200

7. 7 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Current Snapshot of Non-CO 2 GHG Emissions Non-CO 2 gases constituted ~25% of global GHG emissions in 2000

8. 8 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Non-CO 2 Gases Originate From a Variety of Sources METHANENITROUS OXIDEHIGH GWP GASES ENERGY Coal Mining Activities Natural Gas and Oil Systems Stationary and Mobile Combustion Biomass Combustion INDUSTRIAL Chemical Production Iron and Steel Production Metal Production Mineral Products Petrochemical Production Silicon Carbide Production AGRICULTURE Manure Management Enteric Fermentation Rice Cultivation Agricultural Soils Field Burning of Agricultural Residues Prescribed Burning of Savannas WASTE Landfilling of Solid Waste Wastewater Solvent and Other Product Use Waste Combustion ENERGY Biomass Combustion Stationary and Mobile Combustion INDUSTRIAL Adipic Acid and Nitric Acid Production Metal Production Miscellaneous Industrial Processes AGRICULTURE Manure Management Agricultural Soils Field Burning of Agricultural Residues Prescribed Burning of Savannas WASTE Human Sewage Fugitives from Solid Fuels Fugitives from Natural Gas and Oil Systems Solvent and Other Product Use Waste Combustion INDUSTRIAL Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting Substances (HFCs, PFCs) HCFC-22 Production (HFC-23) Primary Aluminum Production (PFCs) Magnesium Manufacturing (SF 6 ) Electrical Power Systems (SF 6 ) Semiconductor Manufacturing (HFC, PFCs, SF 6 )

9. 9 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Methane – A Potent GHG and Valuable Resource Global Sources of Methane in 2000 A primary constituent of natural gas and a valuable, relatively clean-burning energy source Sources include: landfills, natural gas and petroleum systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial processes.

10. 10 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Technical and Economic Analyses: Inventory, Projections and Mitigation

11. 11 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Non-CO 2 Gases have Economic and Policy Benefits Incorporation of Non-CO 2 Gases into climate economic analysis has provided important insights –Non-CO 2 gases originate from a range of economic sectors, far more diverse than CO 2 –Mitigation costs are typically lower than for energy- related CO 2 –The result: a large and diverse portfolio of mitigation options and the potential for reduced costs for a given climate policy objective

12. 12 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs USEPA GHG Inventory Program: Essential Emissions Data Develop national GHG inventory (all gases, sources, sectors) Leadership on development of estimation methodologies Adapt national methods for disaggregated inventories (i.e., states, sectors) & accounting for partnership programs, and GHG projects Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 (EPA #430-R-07-002)

13. 13 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Global Projections of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Provides a consistent and comprehensive estimate of global non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions, covering: –All non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, high GWP gases) –Over ninety individual countries and eight regions –all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and industrial processes) –Covers historic and projected emissions from 1990 to 2020 –Provides information that can be used to understand national contributions of GHG emissions, historical progress on reductions, and mitigation opportunities Report has undergone an external peer review Report and data available on USEPA’s website: http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html Global Anthropogenic Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2020 (USEPA, 2006)

14. 14 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Global Non-CO 2 GHG Projections More developed regions show sustained levels of non-CO 2 emissions, while less developed regions show projected emissions growth.

15. 15 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Global Non-CO 2 GHG Projections Competing effects in Waste sectors keeps emission projections flat: Growing population trends mean more waste emissions Countered by increasing landfill controls & recycling, particularly in developed nations Growing emission trends in Energy, Industry & Agriculture sectors, as population grows and energy use per capita increases

16. 16 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Global Mitigation of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Recent focus on multi-gas strategies calls for –improved understanding of mitigation potential –incorporation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation estimates in climate economic analyses, including “offsets” analyses and integrated assessment climate scenarios modeling USEPA has developed a comprehensive global mitigation analysis for non-CO 2 GHGs, covering: –all non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, high GWP gases) –all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and industrial processes) –all regions of the world Based on baseline emission projections from EPA’s sister non-CO 2 projections report Reports have undergone an external peer review Reports and data available on USEPA’s website: http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html Global Mitigation of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases (USEPA, 2006)

17. 17 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Mitigation Cost Analysis Methodology –Bottom-up analysis of mitigation option breakeven prices –Determines at what carbon price a mitigation option becomes economically viable –Breakeven price is where NPV (benefits of the option) = NPV (costs of implementing the option) –Breakeven price points form a marginal abatement curve (MAC), reflecting the economic potential for mitigation at various carbon prices

18. 18 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Aggregate Results – Global MAC Mitigation of non-CO 2 gases can play an important role in climate strategies. –Worldwide, the potential for cost-effective non-CO 2 greenhouse gas abatement is significant (> 500 MtCO 2 eq). –As the breakeven price rises, the mitigation potential grows. The global mitigation potential at a price of $10/tCO 2 eq is approximately 2,000 MtCO 2 eq. –In the higher range of breakeven prices, the MAC becomes steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each additional increase in price. –Negative breakeven price points indicate options that are cost effective without a carbon price, but may not be deployed in the market due to information or other barriers Global Total Aggregate MAC in 2020

19. 19 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Aggregate Results – MACs by Sector Globally, the sectors with the greatest potential for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are the energy and agriculture sectors. –At a breakeven price of $10/tCO 2 eq, the potential for reduction of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is greater than 750 MtCO 2 eq in the energy sector, and approximately 500 MtCO 2 eq in the agriculture sector. –While less than that of the energy and agriculture sectors, mitigation potential in the waste and industrial process sectors can play an important role, particularly in the absence of a carbon price incentive. Global 2020 MACs by Major Sector

20. 20 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Aggregate Results – MACs by GHG Methane mitigation has the largest potential across all the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases. –At a cost-effective level, the potential for methane mitigation is greater than 500 MtCO 2 eq. –The potential for reducing methane emissions grows three-fold as the breakeven price rises from $0 to $20/tCO 2 eq. –While less than that of methane, nitrous oxide and high-GWP gases exhibit significant cost- effective mitigation potential. Global 2020 MACs by Greenhouse Gas Type

21. 21 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Aggregate Results – MACs by Region Major emitting countries of the world offer large potential mitigation opportunities. –China, the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil emit the most non-CO 2 greenhouse gases. As the largest emitters, they also offer important mitigation opportunities. –These countries show significant mitigation potential in the lower range of breakeven prices, with the MACs getting steeper in the higher range of breakeven prices as each additional ton of emissions becomes more expensive to reduce. Global 2020 MACs by Major Emitting Countries

22. 22 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO 2 mitigation Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006) Stabilization at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100 Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum Working Group 21 (EMF-21) Coordinated international modeling effort 18 models run using a consistent approach Time horizon out to 2100 for most models Incorporated new non-CO 2 emissions and mitigation data into economy-wide models Focused specifically on multiple gas strategies Results published in special issue of Energy Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy

23. 23 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006) Model results show lower carbon prices in Multigas Scenarios versus CO 2 -only Scenarios (for 17 out of 18 models). Majority of results indicate 20-60% lower carbon permit prices in the Multigas Scenarios.

24. 24 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs IPCC Fourth Assessment Report “Mitigation of Climate Change” Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, “Mitigation of Climate Change” Including non-CO 2 mitigation options provides greater flexibility and cost- effectiveness for achieving stabilization.

25. 25 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Continuing Efforts in Non-CO 2 Analysis Purdue University’s Global Trade Analysis Project Working with EPA towards a non-CO 2 emissions database that is integrated with GTAP economic activity, energy volume, and CO 2 emissions databases International Energy Agency Incorporating EPA methane mitigation into Energy Technology Perspectives modeling Results to be published in a chapter devoted to methane in 2008 publication of IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives Continuing work & collaboration to improve data and refine analyses

26. 26 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Project Level: Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers

27. 27 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Significant Benefits of Methane Mitigation Projects Methane mitigation technology exists: Landfill gas flaring or capture for direct use or electricity generation Natural gas systems equipment upgrades/replacements and changes in operational practices, inspection & maintenance Oil systems flaring or capture for direct use or enhanced oil recovery Coal mine methane flaring or capture through degas procedures or ventilation air methane for direct use or electricity generation Animal waste management using anaerobic digesters Multiple benefits of methane mitigation projects: Increased energy efficiency & reduced energy waste Improved industrial/mine safety and productivity Improved air quality, water quality and reduced odors Reduced greenhouse gas emissions

28. 28 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Despite Benefits, Barriers Exist Despite potential for project level cost savings and environmental benefits, barriers to mitigating methane emissions continue to exist: Lack of awareness of emission levels and value of lost fuel Lack of information on and training in available technologies and management practices Traditional industry practices Regulatory and legal issues Limited methane markets and infrastructure Uncertain investment climate

29. 29 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers M2M Partner Countries ArgentinaJapan AustraliaKorea BrazilMexico CanadaNigeria ColombiaPoland ChinaRussia EcuadorUkraine GermanyUnited Kingdom IndiaUnited States ItalyVietnam International Framework to Advance the Recovery and Use of Methane as a Clean Energy Source 20 Partner Countries & 550 public and private Project Network Members U.S. commitment of $53 million over five years, with total leveraged investment of over $235 million Ongoing projects and activities are expected to achieve annual emission reductions of 5 MtCO2e New Opportunity: Partnership Expo, Beijing (30 Oct - 1 Nov, 2007)

30. 30 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Goal: Advance cost-effective recovery and use of methane as a valuable clean energy source in four sectors: Coal mines Landfills Oil and gas systems Agriculture (manure waste management) Key activities to advance project development Identify and assess project opportunities Support technology transfer, training, and capacity building Address barriers to project development and increase access to information Technology demonstration and deployment International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers Coal Mines Landfills Oil and Gas Systems Agriculture

31. 31 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Conclusions Non-CO 2 GHGs offer significant opportunities for cost- effective mitigation, particularly in the near-term From a range of diverse sources with varied mitigation options Can reduce costs of meeting a given climate policy objective Commercially available mitigation technologies and practices Multiple project level & local benefits Barriers exist but are being addressed through Methane to Markets voluntary public-private international partnership

32. 32 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Contact Information For more information: EPA’s Climate Change Website www.epa.gov/climatechange EPA’s Non-CO 2 Projections and Mitigation Reports http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html EPA’s Methane to Markets Program http://www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/ Christa Clapp Economist, Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency clapp.christa@epa.gov 202-343-9807