1. ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
Manfred Klöppel
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)
(thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF)

2. ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
ECMWF’s long-term strategy
MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate
HE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making
ERA-CLIM (reanalysis)
CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation
MACC and ERA-CLIM are both FP7 projects funded by the EU

3. The ECMWF Strategy 2011–2020 Principal Goals Complementary goals
Provide Member States’ National Meteorological Services with reliable forecasts of severe weather across the medium-range.
Meet Member States’ requirements for high-quality near-surface weather forecast products such as precipitation, wind and temperature.
Complementary goals
Improve the quality of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts.
Support climate monitoring with state-of-the-art reanalyses of the Earth- system.
Contribute towards the optimisation of the Global Observing System.
Enhance support to Member States’ national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models.
Deliver global analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition.

4. provide data & information on
Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation
MACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13 countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start.
Weather services
Atmospheric
environmental services
Long-range pollutant transport
Air quality
Dust outbreaks
Solar energy
UV radiation
Climate forcing by gases and aerosols
• • •
Environmental agencies
provide data & information on

5. Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition are currently available
CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES)
SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT)
The four figures illustrate the variety of data available today, covering reactive gases (sulfur dioxide, top left, and nitrogen dioxide, bottom right), aerosol (bottom left) and greenhouse gases (top right).
Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA)
NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)

6. From combining observations and model forecast…
IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)
Extending the data assimilation methods used for NWP, assimilation of these data allows to produce analyses, which combine information from the model and the observations. Analyses are 3d-fields, that are useful in particular…
MOPITT CO (NASA)
MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of combustion sources).

7. … to global forecasting…
… to base forecasts. Here the case of carbon monoxide is illustrated. CO is emitted by biomass burning and combustion processes in general, but is also an oxidation product of the Volatile Organic Compounds. It is a very important tropopheric species and studying its long-range transport is useful to understand global pollution issues.
MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.

8. … to regional ensemble forecasts
NO2
SO2
PM10
The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale air quality forecasts.
Adressing Air Quality issues requires much higher resolution than possible at global scale. MACC-II Air Quality forecasts are available at a resolution of ~15km over Europe, while the global system run at ECMWF runs currently at ~80km.
Regional Models
Global Model
Observations

9. Retrospective Service Provision
Retrospective Service Provision
Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition ( )
Aerosol Optical Depth
30 years ozone layer records
Methane
CO2 and CH4 surface flux inversions
700+ users

10. Near-Real-Time Service Provision
Near-Real-Time Service Provision
90+ users and obsAIRve
European Air Quality
More on MACC-II achievements in the talk by
L. Wald in the late afternoon session today
Global Pollution
Biomass burning emissions
Aerosol
UV index

11. Climate monitoring by reanalysis
Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change
ERA ERA ERA-Interim ERA-20C
ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data products from
ERA-Interim: From 1979 to present, monthly updates near real-time
ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project
Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century
Contributes to the GEO work plan:
CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record
Resolution:
ERA-40: 125 km
ERA-Interim: 80 km
ERA-20C: 40 km
Figure from ERA-Interim, July 2010, heat wave in Russia
Reanalyses provide global picture of the atmospheric condition

12. ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by ECMWF
To prepare input observations, model data, and data assimilation systems for a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century
ERA-CLIM will deliver:
Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite)
New reanalysis products
Improved data quality
Improved data access
Chart shows ERA-CLIM consortium
New reanalysis products: reanalysis over a whole century
Improved data quality: by identifying data biases can improve quality control of the data
Improved data access: better data servers, freely available data

13. Reanalyses provide a complete picture of recent trends example: temperature Deg C/decade, 1979-2001

14. Summary
Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate
Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation
‘Increase models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century’: by comparing with global reanalysis

16. Summary
Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate
Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation
The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO