1. What Local Communities in Bangladesh told us about Climate Change Ainun Nishat IUCN Bangladesh Country Office

2. Is Climate Change real …..? IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The just-released IPCC-FAR(2007), confirms that Climate change is due to increase in concentration of GHGs. Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most’. Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface temperature, and sea level are projected to increase under all IPCC emissions scenarios during the 21 st Century. CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380 ppm now. It may reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.

3. Some Definitions…… Climate Change: any change in climate over time. Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing environment.. Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

4. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 º C over the period 1990 to 2100. Scientists worry as they can not predict as to what will happen if it goes above 2 º C. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 m between the years 1990 and 2100. Globally averaged annual precipitation is projected to increase during the 21 st Century. Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their widespread retreat during the 21 st Century. Dry season flows of river will shrink in future. Likely Impacts

5. Dry seasons will have less rainfall. There will be an increase in irrigation water demand unless offset by diversification with dry-foot crops. There will be erratic behavior of weather. Forests will be affected as climate changes and plants will need time to adjust. Flora and fauna and their inter-relationship will be in jeopardy. Many species will disappear, many will face problems in surviving. Drought tolerant, saline tolerant and submergence tolerant varieties of crops will be required to cope. Likely Impacts…..

6. Likely Impacts ……  Vulnerability to both flood and drought will increase.  River flooding may increase in duration. Flash flooding will be more frequent. Short duration rainfalls may create drainage congestions specially in urban areas.  A sea level rise of 0.5m by 2050 will cause low lying coastal areas to go under water. Small island states may disappear. It will also exacerbate drainage congestion in the coastal plains.  Frequency of tropical cyclones will increase. Storm surge depths will increase.

7. Output from a total of eleven local level consultations held between 2003-06 are summerized. Seven consultations were held (2003-2004) as part of “Water and Climate Change” project; and four were organised between 2005-2006 as part of NAPA process. Locations covered all major physiological and ecological regions. Consultations with local communities was very rewarding as rich ideas were extracted from them. Local communities demonstrated clear understanding vis-a-vis the various adverse impacts of climate change that are being predicted by professionals and experts though they were not aware of sciences behind the impacts. General comments

8. Approach of local level consultations Capture the ideas of people at grassroots level. Identify location specific problem as well as user specific problem. Create awareness among the people at local level Through group work: –Assessment of present status biodiversity indicators– once was there and now not seen. –Causes of loss and threats –What should be done now –Prioritization of issues All groups looked into issues related to: –Species conservation, ecosystem management, legal and regulatory issues, education and awareness raising, and institutional issues –Issues were identified, actions were recommended.

9. NBSAP Regional Workshops held in Chittagong Khulna Jhalokathi Tangail Thakurgaon Moulvibazar

10. Indicators Of Climate Variability As Identified By Stakeholders At Water And Climate Change Dialogue Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain, Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic conditions, variation in tidal flow Increase in frequency of flash flood, Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and cold winter, increase in droughts and dry spells, Storms and hailstorms,, Increased surface temperature, Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.

11. Vulnerabilities Climate and Related Elements Critical Vulnerable AreasMost Impacted Sectors Temperature rise and drought North-west Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) Water Energy Health Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion Coastal Area Islands Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) Water (water logging, drinking water, urban) Human settlement Energy Health Floods Central Region North East Region Char land Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) Water (urban, industry) Infrastructure Human settlement Health Disaster Energy Cyclone and Storm Surge Coastal and Marine Zone Marine Fishing Infrastructure Human settlement Life and property Drainage congestion Coastal Area Urban South West Water Agriculture (crop)

12. Vulnerabilities Physical Vulnerability Context Extreme Tempera ture Sea Level RiseDroughtFloodCyclone and Storm Surges ErosionSectoral Vulnerability Context River Flood Flash Flood Coastal Inundation Salinity Intrusion ++++++++ +++++-Crop Agriculture ++++ ++-Fisheries ++ ++++++ -Livestock +++ -- +++++Infrastructure +++++++- + -Industries +++ +++++-Biodiversity ++++ ++ - -Health ----+++++ Human Settlement +++-++-+-Energy

13. ADAPTATAION TO CHANGES IN SEASONAL CYCLE Information and technology about photo- neutral varieties of crops should be available. Forecast about seasonal variation and also forecast on storm, hail storms, flood etc. at the beginning of the each crop season.

14. ADAPTATAION TO FLOODS Disaster management training at local level Flood management infra-structures be constructed and effectively maintained. People be encouraged to adopt with alternative professions and they should be given skill development training. Health related information should be provided and improved health services. Mobile medical service should be available. Special health services for newborn and pregnant mothers should be ensured.

15. ADAPTATAION TO INCREASE IN DROUGHT Support should be available for excavation and re-excavation of canals and water bodies. Afforestation and plant protection program should be enhanced. Major irrigation program should be initiated.

16. ADAPTATAION TO INCREASED SALINITY To stop intrusion of the tidal water, height and width of embankment be increased; Ensure natural flow river. There should be a good drainage system in the area. HYV Salinity tolerant varieties of rice be developed. Traditional/indigenous saline tolerant varieties of crop should be restored and introduced widely.

17. ADAPTATAION TO STORM SURGES AND CYCLONES Local voluntary organizations should be strengthened Coastal afforestation program should be strengthened. The Sundarbans should be preserved and protected. Creation of reserved forest be encouraged. More cyclone shelter should be constructed. Arrangement of proper and accurate weather forecast. Special arrangement should be taken to disseminate weather information.

18. ADAPTATAION TO SEA LEVEL RISE All existing coastal polders be raised and repaired; new polders to be constructed in unprotected areas. Legal initiatives should be taken to protect embankment. Sufficient measures to be taken to improve internal drainage.

19. Further Recommendations ……. Farmers require short period vegetable seeds. Innovation of hill friendly seeds that require no ploughing. Innovation of drought resistant variety of wheat and rice. Innovation of salinity and flood resistant variety of rice. Research needed to innovate photo-neutral variety of vegetables and rice. Adaptation strategies should be based on local knowledge and local participation.

20. Summing up Local consultation have raised expectation among the communities and they now look for activities leading to implementation of their recommendations. Effective involvement of local communities will ensure successful implementation of various Action Plans. Indigenous knowledge need to be adopted in conserving biodiversity, fighting desertification and adapting to climate change and climate variability.