1. Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe INFORSE-Europe Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.orgwww.inforse.org International Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe is a network of 55 NGOs. INFORSE-Europe is supported by EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002

2. Vision 2050 - Background The world energy system:  is beyond the environmental limits  does not provide basic energy needs as light and healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s population  To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century  We should provide all with basic energy needs and allow developing countries to develop, including use of cheap energy supply INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

3. Environmental Limit: Climate Change  To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC century, we must limit global CO 2 emissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century = 35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC)  The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of 3.5ºC.

4. A Global Sustainable Scenario After 2000: 240 GtC INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy 1990- 2000: 64 GtC

5. Scenario: Energy Services INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy Energy Services per capita

6. Energy Demand  Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced several times before 2050: new generations of equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology learning can drive prices down.  One exception is houses. In EU houses could use only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m 2  For transport is expected increase in efficiency from todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions together with electrical driven vehicles.  Energy service demand will increase, also in industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

7. Primary Energy (TWh/y) INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

8. Energy Supply Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000 MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe less afterwards Large wind power development programs are cost- effective: extra costs today will be paid back with future cost reductions due to technology learning. Some sites give cost-effective electricity today. Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then grow 25% pr. year Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total Biomass can be used as transport fuel INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

9. Renewable Energy Potential INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

10. Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)

11. Example – Denmark INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

12. Electricity Supply - Denmark

13. Economy - DK scenario until 2030  The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate  It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate  If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than business as usual.  expected lower growth in energy services: need for decoupling of economy and energy services INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

14. Example - Slovakia INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy OBS: Preliminary data

15. Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials : INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy OBS: Preliminary data

16. Energy Infrastructure  Electricity grid still needed, as today  Electricity grid needs more regulation with many decentralised production units ”intelligent grid”  Need for electricity storage to compensate wind & PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark probably chemical storage after 2030  New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps, international energy trade  Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier  Because of large learning rates for the new technologies, minimal costs. INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

17. More on Infrastructure  decentralised power production, to use local renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)  more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030  gas demand stable until 2025, then decline  hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to replace gas where local renewables insufficient  some gas networks can be used for hydrogen  heat networks to remain in densely built areas INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy

18. Vision 2050 simple spread-sheet model  Based on energy balance  Trends for RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels  1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval 2002  Denmark, Slovakia and EU 2003  Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)