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Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated.

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Presentation on theme: "Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated."— Presentation transcript:

1 Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel+852 2841 1411 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Khiem Do May 15, 2009 The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Global and Asian Investment Outlook www.asiapacificfund.com

2 1 China To Lead The World In 2009 ? Equity markets’ performance since 27/10/08 Source:Bloomberg (04/2009) China up 63%, Asia up 39% and US down 1%

3 2 US Economy: Where are we now ? ‘Green shoots’ are appearing Source: Citi (4/2009) ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Jan-81Jan-83Jan-85Jan-87Jan-89Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07Jan-09 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Tightening - Inverted -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% S&P 500 (Y/Y) Q1-91Q1-92 Q1-93Q1-94Q1-95Q1-96Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01Q1-02Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05Q1-06 Q1-07Q1-08Q1-09 Recession Banks Tightening C&I Loans to Large Firms (%) (Left) S&P 500 Composite (EOP 1941-43=10) Banks Tightening C&I Loans to Large Firms (%) vs. S&P 500 (Y/Y) Index

4 3 Global Economy: Where are we now ? ‘Green shoots’ are appearing Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009) G4 Economies - PMI New OrdersEmerging Economies - PMI New Orders 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 US Euro Area UK Japan 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 India China (sa) Russia Brazil Index

5 4 Quantitative Easing: Every OECD central bank is doing it ….. Positive for the trend of ‘risk’ assets ….. Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009) G3+ Central Bank Balance Sheet Size 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan 07Apr 07Jul 07Oct 07Jan 08Apr 08Jul 08Oct 08Jan 09Apr 09 Euro AreaJapanUKUS Size index (100 at Jan ’07)

6 5 US Property Price Trend: We seem to get closer to the bottom ….. Last two months’ prices showed a slight rise: encouraging sign ….. Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009) US Real Average Existing House Price (log scale) 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 Jan 68 Jan 73 Jan 78 Jan 83 Jan 88 Jan 93 Jan 98 Jan 03 Jan 08 Real Average Existing House Price (log) Trend = 1.5% per annum 1 annualised SD = 6.9% Aug 73 Okt 74 2.79 % 14 months Jun 79 Sep 82 8.46 % 39 months Jan 88 Dez 90 11.35 % 35 months Jul 91 Apr 95 6.1 % 45 months Nov 05 Feb 09 26.33 % 39 months Real house price

7 6 Asia’s Balance Sheet Revisited: Healthy Asian banks have capacity to lend Asian corporate debt levels are close to 25 year lows... as well as external debt levels The external position of Asia is healthier today than 20 years ago in terms of current account balance... 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1981198419871990199319961999200220052008E Asia ex-Japan Net Debt- to-Equity Ratio 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 929394959697989900010203040506070809 GDP-wgt Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (major financial institutions) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 84858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 Asia ex HK/Sing Current Account Balance as % of GDP 16 21 26 31 84858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 Asia ex HK/Sing Total External Debt as % of GDP Source: Citi (4/2009) Data prior to 1995 excludes Taiwan It is most likely that Asia can weather this storm well % of GDP

8 7 Corporate Earnings Growth: Downgrades bottoming out Source: JP Morgan (4/2009) USAsia Pacific ex-Japan Room for upward surprise in 2009 ? Earnings Revisions Index

9 8 Asian Equities’ Valuations: Challenging growth in 2008/09, recovery in 2010 ? Source: JP Morgan (4/2009) P/E (x) Div. Yield (X) P/BV (x)Earning growth (%)ROE (%) Country Current Trailing 12m fwd Current Trailing 2008E2009E2010E2009E Global *9.210.04.31.2-10.3-15.117.311.5 USA *15.512.83.01.8-22.1-9.822.510.7 EMF Asia10.510.93.71.3-15.4-10.723.011.2 China12.912.33.21.8-9.7-0.820.413.3 Korea14.514.01.71.2-32.6-9.544.47.6 *Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. US trailing PE is calculated as per reported earnings. For all other markets and sectors, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest. Companies with different yearends are calendarised to December yearends and are free float adjusted for aggregation. Historical numbers are from MSCI.

10 9 Asian Equities’ Valuation: P/B close to historical bottom Source: Citi (4/2009) Cheap P/B

11 10 US Money Market vs Equities: Where’s the money ? Mountain of cash in money markets ! Source: Citi (4/2009) Note: 1Q09 reading for deposits and cash held steady from 4Q08 S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Household Deposits & Currency + S&P 500 Non-Financial Corporate Cash Equity Mutual Fund Assets as a % of Total Assets (ex Institutional Money Market Assets) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Q1-1988 Q1-1990 Q1-1992 Q1-1994 Q1-1996 Q1-1998 Q1-2000 Q1-2002 Q1-2004 Q1-2006Q1-2008 $Millions Deposits + Corporate Cash S&P 500: Market Capitalization (Bil.$) 45% 48% 51% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69% 72% Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08Jan-09

12 11 Asian Excess Liquidity: Accelerating Source: Citi (4/2009) Bullish for share prices -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 84868890929496980002040608 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Asian Domestic Excess Liquidity (%YoY, LHS) MSCI AC Asia ex-Jp US$ Index 12-m % Chg (RHS) %YoY % Chg

13 12 Risk Appetite for Asian Equities: Aversion or appetite ? Source: Citi (4/2009) Euphoria Distress Risk aversion has abated, but risk appetite remains low Risk deviation in SDs from mean MSCI Asia index

14 13 Let’s Assume That US Equities Have Troughed: What is the upside potential ? S&P 500 at 966 in March 2010 ? Source: Citi (4/2009) S&P 500 Bear Markets and Subsequent Performance PeakTrough DateLevelDateLevel 09/07/192931.9206/01/19324.41-86.18% 120.85% 09/07/19329.3102/27/19335.53-40.60% 95.44% 07/18/193312.2010/21/19338.56-29.82% 5.29% 02/05/193411.8103/14/19358.06-31.77% 81.41% 03/06/193718.6803/31/19388.50-54.48% 29.18% 11/09/193813.7904/08/193910.19-26.12% 23.61% 10/25/193913.2106/10/19408.99-31.94% 9.24% 11/09/194011.4004/28/19427.47-34.46% 53.68% 05/29/194619.2505/17/194713.72-28.75% 21.12% 06/15/194817.0706/13/194913.55-20.59% 42.05% 08/02/195649.7510/22/195738.98-21.65% 31.02% 12/12/196172.6406/26/196252.32-27.97% 32.66% 02/09/196694.0610/07/196673.20-22.18% 33.21% 11/29/1968108.3705/26/197069.29-36.06% 43.73% 01/11/1973120.2410/03/197462.28-48.20% 38.01% 11/28/1980140.5208/12/1982102.42-27.11% 58.33% 08/25/1987336.7712/04/1987223.92-33.51% 22.78% 03/24/20001527.4610/09/2002776.76-49.15% 33.73% 10/09/20071565.1503/09/2009676.53-56.78% Average -37.23%43.08% Peak to Trough % Change 1 Year Performance from Trough

15 14 The Asian 8-year Market Cycle: Will 2009 be the trough for coming 8-year cycle ? Last trough 2001 >>> next trough 2009? Source: Citi (4/2009) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Dec74Dec78Dec82Dec86Dec90Dec94Dec98Dec02Dec06Dec10 MSCI AC Asia ex Jp PBV From trough-to-trough: 8yrs7yrs 11mthsTrough in 2009? From trough-to-peak: 6yrs 2mths 4yrs 11mths 3yrs 4mths 6yrs 2mths 8yrs Good prospects for Asia’s re-rating P/B (X)

16 15 Foreign Investors’ Flow Analysis for Asia: Back as buyer ? USD 4.4 bn inflow in April month-to-date ! Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009) Total Net Flows for Asia (ex Mal/HK-China)

17 16 Fund Strategy Looking to add growth with focus on earnings delivery We expect to see a continuation of relaxed macro policies globally, as short-term economic data is expected to remain weak Asian economies, led by China, are expected to slow down cyclically, but remain solid structurally With Asian equity valuations looking fair value, we continue to selectively add to growth/cyclicals on weakness Stock selection focuses on earnings delivery following the strong share price rebound from distressed valuations Change

18 17 Important Information This document is provided as a service to professional investors/advisers. It is issued in the United Kingdom by Baring Asset Management Limited and/or by its investment adviser affiliates in other jurisdictions. The affiliate serving as the Asia Pacific Fund’s investment adviser is Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited. In the United Kingdom this document is issued only to persons falling within a permitted category under (i) the FSA’s rules made under section 238(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and (ii) the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. This is not an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment referred to in this document. Baring Asset Management group companies, their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable but no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, which are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections as of the date on the cover hereof. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available. Private investors in the Company referred to herein should obtain their own independent financial advise before making investments. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in the Company, we recommend that all relevant documents, such as reports and accounts and prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with investment in the Company, together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The Company may not be available for investment in all jurisdictions. There may also be prohibitions or restrictions on distribution of this document and other material relating to the Company and accordingly recipients of any such documents are advised to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. Complied (Boston): May 13, 2009


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