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IHS Consulting U.S. Economic Outlook FHWA Talking Freight Seminar Steve Owens Consultant, Commodity Flow Analysis & Forecasting February 16, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "IHS Consulting U.S. Economic Outlook FHWA Talking Freight Seminar Steve Owens Consultant, Commodity Flow Analysis & Forecasting February 16, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 IHS Consulting U.S. Economic Outlook FHWA Talking Freight Seminar Steve Owens Consultant, Commodity Flow Analysis & Forecasting February 16, 2011

2 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 IHS is The Source for Critical Information and Insight™ IHS is a leading information company with comprehensive content, insight and expertise in key areas shaping today’s global business landscape. Businesses and governments around the world use our products and solutions to make faster and more confident strategic decisions.

3 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3 The U.S. Economic Expansion Gains Momentum  Growth picked up considerably in Q4 2010  GDP growth expected at 4% in Q1 2011  Employment creation continues to lag the recovery  Jobs growth will spark recovery in spending, housing markets eventually  Consumer confidence measures hold steady or move up  Business equipment investment, exports, and durables consumption will lead U.S. growth  Nonresidential construction will begin to recover in 2012  Excess capacity will keep inflation subdued, and monetary policy will stay accommodative through 2011

4 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4 (Annual percent change)(Percent) A Growing U.S. Economy Will Bring Down The Unemployment Rate

5 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 (Percent change, annual rate) Manufacturing Production Growth Is Moderating With The End Of The Inventory Cycle

6 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6 2009201020112012 All Manufacturing-10.96.65.84.4 Motor Vehicles & Parts-24.824.715.09.0 Computers & Electronics-8.213.614.715.1 Elec. Equip. & Appliances-12.75.16.24.0 Textiles-14.91.5-0.81.0 Apparel-18.10.6-2.3-6.5 Furniture-19.4-1.14.16.5 Chemicals-3.53.83.42.6 (Percent change) U.S. Industrial Production Growth By Sector

7 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7 (Dollars/barrel, WTI) (Dollars/million Btu, Henry Hub) Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Have Diverged

8 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8 (Annual percent change, 2005-dollar basis) Capital Goods Lead Growth in Real Exports

9 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 U.S. International Trading Partners Are Shifting Source: Global Insight World Trade Service (Exports, Real U.S. dollars)

10 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10 Containerized Trade Forecast by US Coast (TEUs)

11 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11 Panama Canal Expansion  Many U.S. Ports must make investments to take advantage of New Panamax  Clearance  Depth  Landside infrastructure  The new lock’s chambers designed to be 1,400 ft long by 180 ft wide, and 60 ft deep  ~4,800 TEU to ~12,500 TEU  Construction scheduled to be completed in 2014

12 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12 Signs of Life in Transportation Sector IHS Consulting  ATA Index measuring For-Hire Truck Tonnage at highest level since September 2008  Class 8 heavy truck orders rose 320% year over year  2010 saw 14.7% more intermodal shipments than 2009: 13.4 million units  Monthly carloads in January 2011 increased 8% compared with January 2010  January import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports up 8% year over year  North American air cargo increased 21.8% from 2009 to 2010

13 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13 Growth In Domestic Freight Tonnage

14 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14 Truck Miles Traveled & State and Local Highway Investment 2010 saw 24 times more car and light truck miles than freight carrying truck miles

15 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15 Transportation Rate Recovery Varies by Mode IHS Consulting  Rail Rate Growth Positive but Slowing  Trucking Rate Recovery Just Beginning  Deep sea freight rates have stalled after a year of robust growth  Domestic water rates vary with inland faring better than Great Lakes.

16 Copyright © 2011 IHS, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16 The Road Ahead The economic recovery is now on a self-sustaining course The risk of back-to-back recessions has diminished Business equipment investment, exports, consumer durables, and housing construction will drive the expansion Excess capacity will keep wage and price inflation down Weaker dollar should encourage foreign export gains Federal transportation investment likely to be limited

17 www.ihs.com Steve Owens, Consultant steve.owens@ihs.com 781.301.9275

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