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2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011
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1 Table of Contents
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2 Returns by Style 2
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3 Returns by Sector 3
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4 U.S. Equity Indexes 4
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5 S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points 5
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6 Equity Scenarios: Bull, Bear and In-between 6
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7 Investment Style Valuations 7
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8 Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index 8
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9 Earnings Estimates and Valuation Drivers 9
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10 Deploying Corporate Cash 10
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11 Sources of Profitability 11
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12 Equity Correlations and Volatility 12
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13 Economic Expansions and Recessions 13
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14 Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP 14
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15 Cyclical Sectors 15
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16 Consumer Finances 16
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17 Federal Finances
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18 The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble 18
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19 Employment 19
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20 Job Growth, Productivity and Labor Force 20
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21 Small Business 21
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22 Corporate Profits 22
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23 Consumer Price Index 23
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24 Returns in Different Inflation Environments – 40 years 24
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25 Oil and the Economy 25
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26 Consumer Confidence 26
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27 Fixed Income Sector Returns 27
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28 Fixed Income Yields and Returns 28
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29 The Federal Reserve 29
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30 Credit Conditions 30
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31 Treasury Yields and Inflation 31
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32 Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries 32
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33 High Yield Bonds 33
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34 Municipal Finance 34
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35 Emerging Market Debt 35
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36 International Returns: Local Currency vs. U.S. Dollars 36
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37 The Economic Growth Differential 37
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38 Global Economic Growth 38
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39 Global Monetary Policy 39
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40 Global Equity Valuations – Developed Markets 40
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41 Global Equity Valuations – Emerging Markets 41
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42 International Economic and Demographic Data 42
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43 Sovereign Debt Vulnerability 43
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44 Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar 44
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45 Currencies 45
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46 Asset Class Returns 46
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47 Correlations: 10-Years 47
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48 Mutual Fund Flows 48
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49 Dividend Income: Domestic and Global 49
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50 Global Commodities 50
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51 Gold
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52 Marginal and Average Tax Rates 52
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53 Historical Returns by Holding Period 53
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54 Diversification and the Average Investor 54
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55 Market Comebacks: Bear Markets and Intra-year Declines 55
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56 Alternative Investment Returns 56
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57 Corporate DB Plans and Endowments 57
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58 The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900 58
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59 Page Reference
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60 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions
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61 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions
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62 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Definitions, Risks & Disclosures
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