1. Water Conflicts and the Future
What are the possible conflicts and solutions to increasing demands for water?
This section looks at 4 themes:
Trends in water demand globally and locally
Water players
Responses to need to increasing water supply and the issues these strategies raise
The role of technology in water supply

2. Read Chapter 6 Pearson sheet

3. Why is there so much uncertainty about future water demand and supply?
One third of the world’s population is already short of water, and this situation will get worse as agricultural and industrial development look set to push global water demand to over 5,235km3 by 2025.
See graph p 48 Pearson
 Future predictions are uncertain due to factors such as economic growth or depression?, slowing of population growth?, political and religious shocks affecting demography and economics and CLIMATE CHANGE
Q - Explain why climate change might lead to problems of water scarcity in some countries.

4. Climate change and water
Inequalities in access to water
Health will vary
Food and other resources may be harder to access
Inland Africans will be remaining with less water as it moves to coastal areas
Migration and refugees
W Asia, Middle East, Central America, Mediterranean and Amazon to be hit hardest

5. Present and potential water conflict hotspots
As water supply decreases, tensions will increase as different players try to access common water supplies
Many conflicts are transboundary in nature, either between states or countries
River basins currently in dispute
River basins at risk in the future
Large International drainage basins
Tigris-Euphrates
Iraq + Syria concerns that Turkey’s GAP project will divert their water Ob
Colorado: disputes between the 7 US states and Mexico it flows through. The river is so overused, that it no longer reaches the sea!.
90% abstracted before reaches Mexico
The Aral Sea, an inland drainage basin, once the world’s 4th largest inland lake has shrunk sine the 1950s after the 2 rivers feeding it: the Amu Dayra and Syr Darya were diverted for irrigation.
By 2007 the sea was 10% of original volume and split into 2 lakes. The ex soviet states are in conflict: Uzbekistan , Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.
Lake Chad
Mekong
Ganges
Insert Figure 2.11 page 47
Okavango
Zambezi
La Plata
Orange
Note: although there have been rising tensions globally, many areas demonstrate effective management to diffuse the situation and create more equitable and sustainable demand-supply balance, such as the Mekong River Committee,& the Nile River Initiative
Nile hotly disputed between Ethiopia and Sudan ,who control its headwaters, and Egypt .

8. 3. Water conflicts and the future... 3 scenarios:
Business as usual
The cost of water will increase
Water consumption will increase resulting in declining stores
Food transfers will mitigate shortage of water in areas where agriculture declines
Water Crisis
Demand will outstrip supply
The proportion of the world’s population without access to clean water will increase
Food insecurity and migration will increase
Conflicts of water supplies (intra and inter state) become more likely
Sustainable Water
Agricultural and household water prices will double in the developed world and triple in the developing world
Global water consumption will fall, although the gap between per capita use will close
Green water flows will increase
Improvements in water harvesting and farming techniques allow food yields to increase whilst water consumption declines
From: 2002 International Food Policy and Research Institute future models

9. The most worrying scenario is ‘Water Crisis’ –
explain what might lead to this situation.

10. Water Players and decision makers
Different players have conflicting views on water insecurity
One player may have quite complex views; most Governments will have departments wanting conservation as opposed to development
You need to identify the ‘stakeholders’ in any particular case study, and then the role of the ‘gatekeepers’ who wield power. The next slide shows a classification of players
Economic
International: World Bank & IMF
TNCs and developers
Businesses and users
Political: water is a human need
International organisations e.g. UN
Government
Regional & local councils
Lobbyists & pressure groups
Photograph of Aral Sea with grounded tanker
Environmental
Conservationists
Scientists & planners
Social: water is a human right
Individuals
Residents
Consumers land owners, health officials, NGOs like Water Aid

11. Classifying the water players
Political
Economic
Social
Environmental
Global
World Bank funds megaprojects to improve supply. Has become more environmentally conscious. This group also has businesses and TNCs
UN Millenium Development Goal called The Water Target:"Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation "
World Health Organisation
G8 Summits : 2002 Evian action Plan, focus on water, and 2009 L’Aquila summit increased aid to poorer countries to help MDGs, + highlighted need for more integrated management
The role of NGOs such as Water Aid or GLOWS has been crucial in managing water supplies
Countries such as India, have mounted successful massive community-led campaigns on things like elimination of open defecation
Government Health Agencies from national to local scale
WWF and
Friends of the Earth campaign for full Environmental Impact Assessments of major projects likely to damage the environment
This group will include many scientists and researchers
At a local scale NIMBY groups will campaign
National
Government owned water companies, eg China
TNCs (Viendi and Suez RWE which owns Thames Water, American Water Works
Companies providing technological fixes
Local
Individual
6.9 billion consumers

12. UN World Water Days- trying to be more sustainable?
Previous Themes for World Water Days
2013 Water cooperation
2012 Water and food security
2011 Water for cities
2010 Water quality
2009 Transboundary water
2008 Sanitation
2007 Coping with water scarcity
2006 Water and Culture
2005 Water for Life
2004: Water and Disasters
2003: Water for the Future
2002: Water for Development
2001: Water and Health
The importance of water in managing global issues is shown by the profile given to it by the UN:
It declared 2005 to 2015 as the International Decade for Action, "Water for Life”.
Every year on March 22nd the UN gives a theme to publicise current issues World Water Day: dedicated to the theme of water quality.
Such global action is rooted in the iconic Earth Summit on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the creation of Agenda21 (the Blueprint for planet management at global scale)and Local Agenda 21( global problems, local action)
UN MDG TARGET set in 2000: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation.
The world is ahead of schedule in meeting the 2015 drinking water target.
Yet a number of countries face an ‘uphill battle’: 884 million people still rely on unimproved water sources for their drinking, cooking, bathing and other domestic activities.
Of these, almost 85 % (746 million people) live in rural areas.
1990 to 2006, 1.1 billion people in the developing world received access to toilets, latrines and other forms of improved sanitation.
But this leaves 1.4 billion people still needing such facilities if the 2015 target is to be met.

13. Responses: Management strategies
Water conflicts can be managed in a range of different ways
There is a spectrum of different management strategies
Some are sustainable as they balance ecological and human needs
Strategies rely on technology?
What is Sustainability? Millennium Ecosystem Assessment definition:
A characteristic or state whereby the needs of the present and local population can be met without compromising the ability of future generations or populations in other locations to meet their needs.
Present policies
Driven by short term economic + political concerns
Often do not include science and effective technology
Obstacles to sustainable management
Climate change uncertainty and effects
Natural variability of water
Pressures caused by human activities and rapid growth of transition economies towards a consumerist society
Increased water demands
Gross inefficiencies in use
Poor existing quality of supply across huge areas of world
Funding
Access to appropriate technology
Future policies?
Longer term?
Need more research, information and monitoring especially on aquifers in developing countries
More partnerships?
More community involvement?
More accountable?

14. Hard management RESPONSES TO RISING DEMAND
Managing future water supplies will require action at a variety of levels, ranging from large –scale projects funded by governments and agencies such as the World Bank down to changing consumers’ attitudes to water use at a local level.
Traditional ‘hard’ engineering
Dams; currently of which 5000 classed as megadams. The aim is to increase natural storage capacity by artificial reservoirs. Rivers most at risk at present: Yangtze, Amazon, Danube and many in the Himalayas
Channels, seen in most arid/semi arid countries whatever their economic status, eg Jonglei Canal on Nile
Pipelines eg Australia and California Aqueduct and snowy Mountains scheme Australia
Desalination plants eg in Middle East
Recharging schemes for depleted aquifers, eg North London Artificial recharge Scheme and Long Island New York
Newer hard technologies
Tankers to transport water eg Turkey to Israel
Osmosis membranes filtering salt from brackish water eg Israel (the Ashkelon plant produces 15% of domestic demand). Also in California, Spain and China
Fertigation: fertilser and water drip feeding of crops, as in Israel

15. Desalinisation – Technological Fix?
This is the removal of salt from water
Cost lots, but as water scarcity increases many countries e.g Israel are turning to this
2 methods either filtering ( Saudi Arabia) or reverse osmosis( Israel, Spain and Australia)
Have ecological impacts due to concentrated brine in the by product
What else does Technology do to solve the water crisis?

16. Softer more environmentally and ethically responsible approaches
Water conservation eg targeted drip irrigation on plants in Ethiopia, includes water harvesting
Water restoration eg Northern Aral Sea, and on smaller scale river Colne in UK
Integrated drainage basin management , especially if bottom up and community involved.
The 4 Rs: ie an attitudinal fix: Reduce, Respect, Reuse, Renew.....

17. Agriculture Drip Irrigation Example – Ogallala Aquifer, USA
16 wireless infrared sensors have been put in field – measure crop temperature to see if they need water. If they reach a certain temperature they turn on automatically.
Also measure daily evapotanspiration rates, post them on the internet so farmers can adjust irrigation rates
Grow wheat another crops that don’t need water
Allow some field to return to grasslands – make money from hunting, ecotourism and ‘dude ranches’
Problem is that government gives higher subsides for crop fields rather than grassland filed, maybe needs to change

18. Ogallala Aquifer

19. Sustainable Settlements
Bedzed
Water efficient—Most rain water falling on the site is collected and reused. Appliances are chosen to be water-efficient and use recycled water when possible.
Dongtan, China
2 water systems. Clean and grey water

20. Low tech solutions to water : a case study
The problem: The River WAKAL area of Rajasthan in NW India is one of the driest and poorest areas in India. Subsistence agriculture dominates.
96% of rainfall is from the 3-4 month monsoon (late June through September.) and the traditional methods of using groundwater and conserving surface water are falling short of demands
Water management often focuses on large scale, technologically advanced mega-projects
These often have complex costs and benefits
Water conservation and restoration of supply have a role
Small scale, bottom-up schemes are likely to be important in the developing world
However, unless duplicated on large scale may be ineffective for longer term economic growth
A solution? Basic technology and information is channelled through the NGO: GLOWS( global water for sustainability project) a partnership between World Vision India and Florida International University.
Methods:
1. Increasing simple low tech appropriate and intermediate solutions to increase storage:
Increased rainwater harvesting
Improved storage system at a family scale: Taankas: 3 m in diameter , 3-4 m deep, most below land level with a side opening to allow surface flow in. They store about 20,000litres, and once full provide water for a family until next monsoon.
2. Using colourful drama performed by trained locals to villagers to illustrate the advantages of working cooperatively with other families and villages to reduce desertification and pollution of ground water by since aquifers are shared-if an unseen resource! (see photograph)
Changes: Traditional low tech methods of water conservation.: stone dams, Persian water wheels and tube wells- but cannot cope with increased demand and increased droughts

21. Restoring the Aral Sea
Watch the 2 news clips on the restoration
Use this information and that in the text book to answer :
How have they helped to restore the sea ( include the role of key players)
What have been in the impacts of these plans?

22. River restoration – example River Kissimmee Florida

23. River Kissimmee – before changes

24. What happened – River Kissimmee
Severe flooding on the river in 1940’s meant that this river was channelized to stop this and ease navigation
Between 1962 and 1971 the river was replaced with a 90km channel and renamed C 38
Also water entering the basin was controlled by storage lakes

25. Changes – 1962 – 1971 United States Corps of Engineers Alter it
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26. Impacts it had Less recharge in Miami’s groundwater aquifers
Salinisation of water supplies
Less water flow – was 0.42 m per second, now 0.05 m per second
92% loss in birds
Eutrophication from nutrients - happened further down stream

27. 90 km Drainage Canal – C38

28. Restoration – what happened
1975 Kissimmee River restoration act passed saying they – work started in 1999, and complete in 2012.
11,000 hectares will be restored to wetland
Levees have been removed and meanders restored
Some parts of the canal remain to protect settlements
Trying to allow the river to return to seasonal flow, but progress is slow

29. River Restoration

30. Specific Technologies seen as appropriate /intermediate with less negative externalities
Water harvesting of grey water eg Belize
Micro dams serving villages eg Nepal
Water meters to reduce use eg UK
Composting latrines – seen in National Trust properties in UK to Mumbai slums!

31. Domestic Usage

32. Settlements – part 2
So-called dry sanitation technologies, such as that employed in the Gebers Housing Project in Sweden, can save much of this freshwater for other applications. These decentralized systems first separate urine from faeces and then safely recycle each for use as crop fertilizers

33. Assess how good you are at conserving water –
In the bathroom
Tick
Fit a low-flush toilet, or put a water-filled plastic bottle in your toilet tank – saves 1,300 litres per month
Shorten your showers by 1 or 2 minutes – saves up to 3,000 litres per month
Don’t waste water by waiting for hot water to run, catch the cold water and use on plants – saves 900 to 1,300 litres a month
Turn off the water whilst brushing teeth – saves 13 litres a day
In the kitchen
When washing dishes by hand, don’t leave the water running for rinsing – saves 900-2,000 litres per month.
Run only full loads in the washing machine and dishwasher – saves 1,300-1,800 metres per month
Keep a bottle of water in the fridge instead of running tap water to cool it for drinking – saves ,300 litres a month
Outside
Water the garden during the cool parts of the day
Try water harvesting – catching rainwater from roofs in butts or ponds

34. Education
In Stigomta, Sweden, they hold an annual 'Pee Outside Day' which saves 50 percent of the water normally used to flush a toilet.
17th April in US have pee outside day, started in Atlanta in 2007

35. Other Methods of meeting water shortages
1970’s considered the idea of towing an iceberg from Antarctica to the Middle East
2006 Thames water considered bring them from Greenland
Use transparent bottles, as 6 hours sunlight will destroy microorganisms and make it safe to drink