1. Make Your Move Alan Beaulieu ITR Economics ™ www.itreconomics.com

2. Duration Forecast ForecastEstimates GDP12$13.593 $13.566 (-0.2%) US Ind Prod. 31 98.0 (12MMA) 97.2 (- 0.8%) EU Ind. Prod. 12 100.4 (12MMA) 98.9 (- 1.5%) CA Ind. Prod. 896.7 96.4 (-0.3%) Retail Sales 30 $2.186 Trillion $2.140 (-2.1%) Housing6 743 Ths Units 772 ( 3.9%) Employment33 143.9 million 142.5 (-1.0%) CPI92.8%2.1% * End of year 12-month index estimate 2012 Forecast Results 2

3. www.itreconomics.com CountryDurationAccuracy Germany1298.0% France1899.9% Italy1899.9% United Kingdom 1899.9% Spain1898.6% China1796.7% Japan1595.9% Brazil1496.7% EU Industries 1494.1% Results for 2011 3

4. www.itreconomics.com 4 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product -14.6% -5.3% -3.1% -7.1% Year-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

5. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production Growth 12/12 annual growth rate 5

6. www.itreconomics.com Real Gross Domestic Product 6 Trillions of $

7. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Durable Goods 12/12 Rates-of-Change 7

8. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods 12/12 Rates-of-Change 8

9. www.itreconomics.com Wholesale Trade Petroleum & Petroleum Products to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change 9

10. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Machinery, Equipment & Supplies 12/12 Rates-of-Change 10

11. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Chemicals & Allied Products 12/12 Rates-of-Change 11

12. www.itreconomics.com Wholesale Trade Electrical & Electronic Goods Bils of $ 12

13. www.itreconomics.com Wholesale Trade Hardware & HVAC Equipment & Supplies to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change 13

14. www.itreconomics.com 14 Leading indicators pointing up Leading indicators pointing up Liquidity is not an issue Liquidity is not an issue Exports are up Exports are up Stimulative monetary policy Stimulative monetary policy Employment rising (companies right-sized) Employment rising (companies right-sized) Banks are lending Banks are lending Retail Sales Retail Sales Construction spending is improving Construction spending is improving Recovery

15. www.itreconomics.com 15 Europe’s financial troubles … Europe’s financial troubles … China recession? … China recession? … Massive legislative changes… Massive legislative changes… Oil prices could break through $120 … Oil prices could break through $120 … Fiscal Cliff… Fiscal Cliff… Tax Hikes… Tax Hikes… Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt Areas of Concern

16. www.itreconomics.com National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O. Reagan Bush ClintonBush Carter Obama 12/12 Rates-of-Change 16

17. www.itreconomics.com Year-Over-Year Growth Rates % 17 Western Europe Industrial Production

18. www.itreconomics.com Global Leading Indicators 1/12 Rates-of-Change 18

19. www.itreconomics.com Tax Revenue and Top Marginal Rates Compared, 1930-2012 19 Source: Tax Policy Center; Historical Tables, OMB; CBO Alternative Scenario. Produced by Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center at George Mason University 40-Year Average

20. www.itreconomics.com International Comparison of Spending on Health, 1980-2008 20

21. www.itreconomics.com Costs by Age Categories 21

22. www.itreconomics.com Source: The Economist Federal Reserve Act of 191332 pages Glass-Steagall Act37 Dodd-Frank848 Not rules, but instructions on how to create more regulations and bureaucracies Caught in the Web Who can do what to whom 22

23. www.itreconomics.com 23 Total U.S. Public Debt (% of GDP)

24. www.itreconomics.com Year-Over-Year Growth Rates % 24 World Countries Industrial Production

25. www.itreconomics.com 25 Global Industrial Production Indices 12/12 Rates-of-Change 3.9Mexico 3.7US 0.7SE Asia -0.5Japan -1.6Europe -2.5Brazil

26. www.itreconomics.com 26 3MMA 11.0% 12.2% US Manufacturing as a % of GDP (Value Added)

27. www.itreconomics.com $ per pound, 3MMA 27 Copper Price Trend

28. www.itreconomics.com Crude Oil Futures Prices Light & Sweet $ per Barrel, Data Trends 28

29. www.itreconomics.com U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Declining Net imports as a share of domestic consumption 29 52% 49% 45% 57% 58% 60%

30. www.itreconomics.com 30 Trends 10 Housing Production Medical New Orders Soft Landing Financial Retail Wholesale Trade Foreign Nonresidential Construction Hard Landing

31. www.itreconomics.com Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Billions of $ 31

32. www.itreconomics.com 32 USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator

33. www.itreconomics.com 12/12 Rate-of-Change University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index 33

34. www.itreconomics.com 6 Month Moving Average Chicago Fed National Activity Index 34

35. www.itreconomics.com 35 Purchasing Managers Index Raw Data

36. www.itreconomics.com 36 Ratio of Inventories to New Orders Raw Data

37. www.itreconomics.com 37 US Leading Indicator

38. www.itreconomics.com Stock Prices Index 1/12 12/12 Actual 12MMA S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10 38

39. www.itreconomics.com Corporate Bond Prices Rates-of-Change 39

40. www.itreconomics.com 40 Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Trillions of 82-84$

41. www.itreconomics.com Personal Savings Billions of $, Annual Data Trend SAAR 41

42. www.itreconomics.com 42 Housing Starts 3/12 12/12 3MMT 12MMT Millions of Units

43. www.itreconomics.com 43 Remodeling Market Index 3MMA

44. www.itreconomics.com US Industrial Production to Private Non-Residential Construction 12/12 Rates-of-Change Additions and Alteration Commercial Buildings -4.7% D Office & Bank Alterations -6.9% A Stores & Restaurants -0.4% D 44 2013 3.5% 2014 4.5%

45. www.itreconomics.com Concise 6 Page Report Excellent Economic “Snap Shot" Consists of Current Events, Extensive Forecasts for Durable & Nondurable Goods, Snap Shot Indicators, Readers' Questions, Fed Notes, ITR Opportunity Index, and more Delivered Monthly The NAW Advisor

46. www.itreconomics.com 46 2013

47. www.itreconomics.com 47 2014