1. Presented by: Steve Barker Policy, Research and Economic Analysis Oklahoma Population Projections Through 2075

2.  Common projection methodology  Oklahoma’s population trends  Projections for Tulsa MSA counties  Questions and answers Today’s Topics of Discussion

3. Standard Projection Formula -A- Population in the current year -B- Births in the current year -D- Net migration -C- Deaths in the current year -E- Population projection for the next year -E- Population projection for the year -F- Births in the next year* -H- Net migration -G- Deaths in the next year -I- Population projection for the next year State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau: + - += -F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age

4. Who is included in projections? Everybody! All civilian residents living within the state US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state

5. Projection of births and deaths Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant. BirthsDeaths Birth rates generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma Health care technology improving Hispanic population increasingOklahoma’s smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness Hispanic population has higher birth rate Oklahoma is among the youngest states in the nation As percentage of Hispanics increases, rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate expected to slow, stall or reverse Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state may be obese by 2030

6. Oklahoma’s net migration history 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed – Peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982 – Double digit annual percentage growth in some less populated counties And then came the oil bust… 1987: state’s annual population growth rate dropped to -1.3%.

7. Net migration: what’s the norm? 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged around 10,000 people annually – Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain just under 15,000

8. County projections handled differently For 64 counties, used straight linear regression trendline formulas – Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011 For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results – Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit

9. Matching up two methodologies Census Bureau population estimates based on birth, death and migration data They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t equal the expected whole They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” This report used similar approach Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.

10. Oklahoma’s population trends

11. OK Population Concentration: 1910

12. OK Population Concentration: 2010

13. OK Population: Peak Decades

14. Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Totals Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

15. Year Over Year Population Growth: 1960 to 2010 Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs

17. Projections by Age Statewide population projections by age group 20102075 PopulationAs %Projected PopulationAs % Age 00 to 04 264,1267.0% 347,8536.3% Age 05 to 09 259,3366.9% 349,1776.3% Age 10 to 14 253,6646.8% 350,4556.3% Age 15 to 19 264,4847.1% 350,9496.3% Age 20 to 24 269,2427.2% 350,8166.3% Age 25 to 29 265,7377.1% 350,6576.3% Age 30 to 34 241,0186.4% 350,2936.3% Age 35 to 39 232,7426.2% 349,3246.3% Age 40 to 44 228,1956.1% 347,0576.2% Age 45 to 49 261,2427.0% 342,8066.2% Age 50 to 54 264,3697.0% 335,8326.0% Age 55 to 59 235,9696.3% 325,5865.9% Age 60 to 64 204,5135.5% 310,5765.6% Age 65 to 69 159,3924.2% 289,0625.2% Age 70 to 74 121,0753.2% 258,7164.7% Age 75 to 79 95,0512.5% 217,1213.9% Age 80 to 84 69,2841.8% 166,9523.0% Age 85+ 61,9121.7% 166,7773.0% Total Population 3,751,351100.0% 5,560,007100.0%

18. Projections for Tulsa MSA counties

21. 71,916

23. 173,122

24. 934,215

25. 144,991

26. 1,503,330

27. Population Rankings 2012-2075 CountyPopulation Rank 2012Population Rank 2075 Creek1110 Okmulgee2729 Osage1617 Pawnee4241 Rogers65 Tulsa22 Wagoner87

28. With all that said, predicting the future is a bit like this… So wish me luck!

29. For more information: www.okcommerce.gov/data Email: steve_barker@okcommerce.govsteve_barker@okcommerce.gov Twitter: @okdatacenter