1. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal Kosi Basin Programme Kosi Basin Programme Developing an evidence base in the transboundary Koshi river basin to address impacts from climatic and socio-economic drivers Garrett Kilroy, Arun Shrestha, Sagar Bajracharya, Kiran Hunzai

2. Overview Context and planning Preparatory phase Characteristics and Issues in basin Koshi programme outline Next steps

3. Context of Koshi Basin

4. On-going relevant activities Third Pole Environment Geo-PACC (CAS) Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment (World Bank) Ganges River Basin Management Plan (India) Koshi basin river basin management (WECS and WWF-Nepal) Sacred Himalayan Landscape Strategic Plan 2006- 2016 PAPRIKA – Agence Nationale de la Research (French) Water storage – IWMI and University of British Columbia

5. Koshi River Basin

6. Preparatory Phase Partners China Institute of Mountain Hazard & Environment (Chinese Academy of Sciences & CN-ICIMOD) IGNSRR (GEO-PACC), CAREERI, CIB Nepal Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Tribhuvan University Regional: ICIMOD

7. Preparatory phase: planning 1. Vision For Koshi Basin by ICIMOD and Partners 2. Situation Analysis Characteristics of the Koshi, Key Issues, & Gaps 3. Programme Choice Priorities identified 4. Draft Programme Plan Stakeholder and Partner Approval 6. Implementation of Programme Plan 7. Monitoring and Evaluation Assess Progress Revise Programme 5. Proposal Development e.g. ESPA Preparatory Phase Fully Fledged Programme

8. Preparatory phase: activities Develop partnerships Workshops and field mission Identify key issues and areas for collaboration –Glaciers, glacial lakes, water resources & hazards; –Biodiversity; –Land use and land cover change; –Socio-economic development and regional development. Collate previous and on-going work in the Koshi Basin Develop programme in the Koshi basin Explore funding opportunities, e.g. UK-funded ESPA: wider partnerships, IIT-Delhi

10. Key Issues – (1) glaciers/water/storage/hazards No. of Glacial lakes in Koshi (Nepal) 20012009 1062599 Change between 2001 and 2009 Nos.Area -44%3% Source: Ives, Shrestha & Mool, 2010

11. Different hydrological systems Data: 1962-1995, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology

12. Average monthly water yield at Chatara (Saptakoshi) SWAT modelling, PRECIS General increase in water yieldGeneral increase in water yield More increase in wet seasonMore increase in wet season Possible shift in peak monthPossible shift in peak month Large uncertainties:Large uncertainties: –Global datasets –No consideration of future LU change –Limited hydromet data Source: Gosain, Shrestha & Rao (2010)

13. Groundwater inputs Data: www.whymap.org

14. Sediments

15. Key Issues – (2) Biodiversity and land use/cover

16. Protected Areas Hands Around Everest Project, 2003

17. Key Issues – (3) Socio-economic / development

18. Socio-economic Indicators in Nepal Population below Total Poverty Line Population below Food Poverty Line Population below Non-Food Poverty Line National Living Standards Survey, 2003 and 2006

19. Draft Koshi Programme Overall Goal: To contribute to an evidence base on how climatic and socio-economic drivers impact on the inter- relationships between natural and human systems to allow for the development of integrated responses to protect ecosystems and reduce poverty.

21. Draft Conceptual Framework

22. Draft Programme Work Areas 1.Coordination, integration and data management 2.Climatic, cryospheric and hydrological characterization, monitoring and modeling 3.Basin wide socio-economic sectoral analysis of water and land use: baseline and future projections 4.Water related hazard assessment and management; including sediments, GLOF, flash floods, landslide and drought 5.Biodiversity and ecosystem services; status characterization and degradation assessment 6.Evaluation of different water storage components (natural and man-made) 7.Water availability and efficiency in the agricultural sector 8.Adaptation and livelihood strategy development for impacts from climatic and socio-economic drivers 9.Development of integrated policies and strategies for governments, international donor community, NGOs and CBOs

23. Next Steps Conclusion of preparatory phase: –Final workshop Spring 2011 –Joint reports –Koshi basin information system –Koshi programme finalised Partnership Development: –Consolidation of Chinese and Nepali partners –Development of new partners, especially India Exploration of funding opportunities: –UK Environmental Services for Poverty Alleviation –Research Consortium developed, Write-Shop December 2010 Third Pole Environment: –Koshi River Basin programme will be a beneficiary and contributor

24. Thank you