1. “An efficient transformation to a lower carbon economy “
Mulhouse,

2. World GHG Emissions *Fossil Fuel related emissions
*Direct emissions (i.e. livestock CH4 emissions, Co2 emissions from cutting down trees)
Source: Analysis by Ecofys – flow chart 2010

3. of developing world growth
Changing dynamics in the energy sector are putting current energy architecture under pressure
Global Energy Demand,
TPED – Mtoe - new policies scenarios
World Bank Energy Price Index
2010=100, Real 2010 US$ terms*
Energy-related CO2 emissions by region
Mt CO2 – new policies scenarios
Non-OECD
OECD - Europe
OECD - Asia/Oceania
OECD - Americas
OECD
Recession
"Super-cycle"
of developing world growth
OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
Sources: IEA (WEO 2013), World Bank, IEA (WEO 2013)

4. Energy transitions are more complex than ever before

5. “Boundary Constraints”
Through the New Energy Architecture the Forum seeks to measure the transitions across an “Energy Triangle”
Energy Architecture Objectives
“Social”
Industry
Govern-ment
Civil Society
“Physical”
Carriers
Energy Sources
Markets & Demand Sectors
Energy
Access & Security
Economic Growth & Development
Environmental Sustainability
“Energy Triangle”
“Boundary Constraints”
Water availability
Hydrocarbon reserves
Geographic setting & climate
Land availability
Physical elements: Includes energy sources, their carriers and end markets.
Social elements: Includes political institutions, industry and civil society, which shape the physical elements.
The Energy Triangle: Ultimate objectives that the energy architecture is designed to support.
Boundary constraints: Factors limiting performance against the energy triangle, both physical and social.
Definitions

7. POLICY MARKET STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY HUMAN CAPITAL
The analysis of the New Energy Architecture initiative highlights policy, market structures, technology and human capital as the key enabling factors for effective transitions
The four enabling pillars
POLICY
MARKET STRUCTURES
TECHNOLOGY
HUMAN
CAPITAL

8. A single factor does not drive a transition on its own: the ecosystem of enabling pillars must come together
Regulatory framework
Technical advances in Hydraulic fracturing
Market with small independent producers
O&G workforce

9. Interconnectedness of energy systems: individual transitions can have a wider reach and impact and cause negative transitions $ $

10. Conclusions
There is a clear and significant transformation on-going in the global energy system
An integrated approach is critical
Trade-offs are often necessary
New Technologies are available
Sustainability needs more attention

11. Appendix

12. How does business interact with climate goal?
Profitability
Policy
Demand
Internal efficiency
Licence to operate
Energy literacy
Consumer demand
Brand image
Lowering cost base

13. Fossil fuels are still dominating the energy landscape
Global energy demand TPED, bn toe
Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)

14. Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicator conceptual framework
KEY QUESTION
How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure and allowing universal access to consumers?
ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX
Efficiency
Affordability / Lack of price distortion
Supports / detracts from growth
Emissions impact
Ratio of low carbon fuels in the energy mix
Diversity of supply
Level and quality of access
Self-sufficiency / multi-lateral markets
ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY
MEASURES:
MEASURES:
MEASURES:
QUANTITATIVE

15. Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicators
How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure and allowing universal access to consumers?
ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX
ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY
OBJECTIVES
KPIS
Efficiency
Energy Intensity (GDP per unit of energy use (PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
Affordability
Degree of artificial distortion to gasoline pricing (index)
Degree of artificial distortion to diesel pricing (index)
Electricity Prices for Industry (U.S. Dollars per Kilowatt hour)
Supportive / detracts from growth
Cost of energy imports (% GDP)
Value of energy exports (% GDP)
OBJECTIVES
KPIS
Emissions impact
Efficiency of electricity production – CO2 from electricity and heat generation/kWh
Nitrous oxide emissions in energy sector (thou. metric tons of CO2 equivalent)/Total Population
Methane emissions in energy sector (thou. metric tons of CO2 equivalent)/Total Population
Emissions intensity – PM10, country level (mg per m3)
Average Fuel Economy for Passenger vehicle fleet (l/100km)
Ratio of low carbon fuels in the energy mix
Alternative and Nuclear energy as share of total consumption (%)
OBJECTIVES
KPIS
Diversity of supply
Diversity of Total Primary Energy Supply (Herfindahl index)
Diversification of net import counterparts by country (Herfindahl index)
Level and quality of access
Electrification (% of population)
Quality of electricity supply (Survey score between 1 – 7)
Percentage of population using solid fuels for cooking (%)
Self-sufficiency
Import Dependence (Energy Imports, net % energy use)
QUANTITATIVE