1. ? How to tell South African development stories… …that enough people believe for the stories to be influential** **sufficiently influential to move development trajectory to a climate compatible one ?

2. DDPP South Africa How do we use DDDP methodology to tell a credible development story that is consistent with 2DC ? 1.Primarily, it has to be about South African residents 2.It has to satisfy** interest groups to remain policy relevant 3.It has to tell a story that interest groups can believe **have not defined this, a first try would include the idea that… (a) members of interest groups HAVE to see themselves clearly in the story and (B) see themselves in an acceptable*** role ***significant efforts might be required to build acceptance based on building a shared understanding of external constraints

3. What do interest groups demand from “development” ? The very minimum we need to deliver to remain relevant: 1.Income (distribution) 2.Employment (non-grant based income) 3.Emissions pathway to avoid catastrophe EXOGENOUS, our Vision  models and expert judgment help paint credible pictures 4. Credible economic pathways that can deliver these  models and expert judgment help paint credible pictures

4. Phase 1 ONLY includes income** distribution …proxy for poverty reduction …used to show other services possible – Housing, services – Transport  ”development pathway” **employment information not available

5. Typical mitigation data

6. DASHBOARD – households

7.  given the above, and the emissions intensity of electricity, household emissions pathway can be calculated

8. Phase 2 adds skills profile

9. It’s about: - people -(and economic structure) 14,7 million people registered for tax 3,3 million taxpayers paid almost 99% of income tax 16 million receive grants +40% Indicative Stats

10. Match skills to economic sectors THREE relevant matches:  High skills high energy intensive  High skills low energy intensive  Low skills high energy intensive Show how all people can be employed in an economy with a credible economic structure – eSAGE linked to SATIM

11. An aside: who works in South Africa ?

12. Another aside: where is South Africa ? (…and do we disbelieve models if they tell us difficult things ? ) Source: United Nations, Get the data

13. ditto

14. Is it worth fine tuning if you’re on the wrong station ?