1. IPB in Counterinsurgency (Part I Operational Environment)
Introduction: Introduce you self. Two one hour blocks of instruction. Go to next slide
LIC Tenets
Political Dominance
Unity of Effort
Adaptability
Legitimacy
Perseverance

2. References FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency Operations FM 3-0 Operations
FM 6-0 Mission Command: Command and Control of Army Forces
FM 5-0 Army Planning and Orders Production
FM 3-06, Urban Operations
FM , Army Personnel Recovery
FM , Special Forces Unconventional Warfare
FMI , Security Force Assistance (February 2009),
FMI , Tactics in Counterinsurgency
Draft of JP 3-24 draft Counterinsurgency
MNF-I CG’s COIN Handbook
Counterinsurgency Leaders Course Afghanistan Student Handbook
SFA Advisor Handbook (Issue at Fort Riley for Combat Advisors)
Human Terrain Team Handbook
Special Forces Population and Resource Control Handbook
Highlight that while we use all the known doctrinal manuals, we are also drawing on insights commanders on the ground…General Casey, General Vines. Highlight the Joint Special Operations University Report Operationalzing COIN written by COL Celeski, former CDR 3d Special Forces Group.

3. Operational Environment
- Population large part of defining the terrain: OAKOC Conventional Environment/War: Obstacles
Counterinsurgency Environment/War: Key Terrain
- Deny the enemy passive/active support
- Physically/psychologically separate the population from the insurgency
Step One
Define: Operational Environment
Bullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time…in COIN people are the key terrain:
Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed
Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries.
TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE…HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
AREA

4. A.S.C.O.P.E. Area Structures Capabilities Organizations People Events
Memory Aid: ASCOPE
Point 1: Planning at the tactical level in counterinsurgency operations requires a far greater analysis of civil considerations than in conventional operations.
Point 2: We will discuss ASCOPE, but we wont teach a class on it. Rather, point out the reference that details ASCOPE (NEW coin) and we will review the aspects of it to remind everyone of the power of this analytical tool when applied to COIN planning.
FM counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Civil considerations comprise six characteristics. Expressed in memory aid. ASOPE
In this OAKOC (define) the civilians are the key terrain
Observation///fields of fire
Avenenues of approach
Key terrain
Obstacles
Cover & concealment
TYPES of Intel:
Humint
Imint
Sigint
Masint
ISR
TRANSITION:

5. Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE)
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

6. IPB I (Operational Environment)
Demographic Group, Community, or Neighborhood (Center of Influence) / AO
Data
Level 1
Population
Level 2
Insurgents
Level 3 Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
Tribal Area
 Gang Territory
 Slums
 Police Districts
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Religious Shrine
 Bridge
 Police Station
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
 Employment
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
 Tribe ‘A’
 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
 Local Militia
 Local Ethnic Group
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
 Tea Shop
 Bar
 Local Radio
 Market Place
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION
 National Holiday
 Religious Observance
 Local Wedding
 Harvest Season

7. IPB 1 1 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational
Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group. 1
Determine
Threat
Courses of
Action
Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
Evaluate the
Threat

8. IPB 2 1 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational
Visualize the specific people, leaders, culture, social and economic within the AO/AI (overlay). ASCOPEs 1
Determine
Threat
Courses of
Action
Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
Evaluate the
Threat
Visualize the specific aspects of the population by demographic in their multiple layers (overlay). Understand how each group communicates (I/O), who the leaders are, cultural factors that effect operations, and potential infrastructure targets. 2
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

9. IPB 3 1 3 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the Operational
Visualize the specific people, leaders, culture, social and economic within the AO/AI (overlay). ASCOPEs 1
Determine
Threat
Courses of
Action
Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
Evaluate the
Threat 3 2
Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s Campaign Plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

10. IPB 4 4 1 3 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the
How (using Effects) insurgents leverage the population (Environment) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. Use this Plan to apply and prioritize our actions/resources. LLOs provide the metric and balance these efforts.
IPB 4
Visualize the specific groups within the population in their multiple layers (overlay). ASCOPEs 4 1
Determine
Threat
Courses of
Action
Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
Evaluate the
Threat 3 2
Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s Campaign Plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by specific group depicted the Overlay from IPB I)

11. IPB 1 1 SO WHAT? Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the
Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human terrain using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group. 1
Determine
Threat
Courses of
Action
Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
SO WHAT?
Evaluate the
Threat
1. Identifying the “Corners” (neighborhoods, demographic groups, communities) of the 4 x Corner War defined by:
- Ethnic
- Social
- Political
- Religious
- Economic
- Tribal/Family
2. Details of each demographic groups

12. IPB 1 4 4 1 1 3 3 2 2 Determine Threat Courses of Action Define the
Operational
Environment
Describe the
Environment's
Effects
Evaluate the
Threat 3 3 2 2

14. x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

15. Areas Tribal Areas x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe B x x x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe A x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe D x x x x
Tribe C x x x x x x x x

16. Areas Religious Boundaries
Shi’a
Sunni x x x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Sunni x x x x x x x x x x
Shi’a x x x x x x

17. Areas Economic Districts
Poor
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x
Poor x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Poor x x x x
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Middle
Merchants
Rich
Ex Regime
Poor x x x x x x

18. Areas Government Centers
Poor
Middle
Merchants G x P x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x x
Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Poor G x x x x
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x G x x x G x P
Middle
Merchants
Rich
Ex Regime
Poor x x x x x x P

19. Structures
How a structure’s location, function, and capabilities can support or hinder operations.
Traditional high payoff targets: Bridges, communications towers, power plants, and dams.
International and localize significant sites: Churches, mosques, national libraries, and hospitals, cemeteries, historical ruins, religious sites, cultural areas, and other protected sites
Practical sites: jails, warehouses, toxic industrial materials, television and radio stations, and print plants,, may influence operations.
Important: HN provides what the effects of engaging these sites
The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications.
Religious shrines or mosques
Cemeteries
Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.

20. Structures - Mosques
The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications.
Religious shrines or mosques
Cemeteries
Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
If the target is in a house near the Mosque does he sleep in the Mosque? Will he run to the Mosque?

21. Structures - Religious shrines
The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications.
Religious shrines or mosques
Cemeteries
Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Do we identify that local ruins is a HVT for Al Qaeda insurgents because its destruction will cause sectarian violence, huge I/O event, backlash against the coalition by locals and international community.

22. Structures – Cemeteries
The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites, and facilities with practical applications.
Religious shrines or mosques
Cemeteries
Other areas where US presence may be an I/O victory
Structures include traditional high-payoff targets, protected cultural sites and facilities with practical applications. The analysis is a comparison how a structure’s location, functions, and capabilities can support operations as compared to costs and consequences of such use.
Published as a protected site insurgents will now use it to cache weapons.

23. Structure x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Poor M
Middle
Merchants G x P x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x x
Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G
Poor x x x x
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x P x x x
Rich
Ex Regime x x x x G x x G x x P
Middle
Merchants
Poor x x x x x x P

24. Capabilities
Capabilities refers to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services not just mentioning the functions.
What is required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that priority.
Those areas the populace needs help in after combat operations
Public health
Security
Public works and utilities
Economics
Commerce
IS there an existing government, is it legitimate?
Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective
Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities?
Is the enemy keeping them ineffective?
Definition: FM counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

25. Capabilities Capabilities can refer to the ability of local
authorities to provide key functions and services
- Are local civil authorities effective?
IS there an existing government, is it legitimate?
Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective
Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities?
Is the enemy keeping them ineffective?
Definition: FM counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

26. Capabilities Capabilities can refer to the ability of local
authorities to provide key functions and services
- Are local civil authorities effective?
- Is there a charismatic leader in the community who the community listens to?
IS there an existing government, is it legitimate?
Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective
Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities?
Is the enemy keeping them ineffective?
Definition: FM counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.
TRANSITION: NEXT: O FOR ORGANIZATION:

27. Capabilities Useful tool is SWEAT-MS to look at Capabilities
Sewer – Local government (Mayor and council)
Water – Tribal leader (historical - for hundreds of years, tribal leader controlled and protected wells.
Electricity – Town engineer
Academic – Government and Imams
Trash – Private business (local merchants)
Medical – Tribal doctors
Security – Police, tribal militia
Note: Some of these unofficial leaders may seem inefficient or bad ideas. It is important to approach the problem by first understanding the issue. Possibly including unofficial leaders in the process is enough to maintain their respect and support of the government.
IS there an existing government, is it legitimate?
Why are the community leaders effective; why are they ineffective
Do you want to add legitimacy to the local authorities?
Is the enemy keeping them ineffective?
Definition: FM counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Assess capabilities in terms of those required to save, sustain, or enhance life, in that order. Capabilities can refer to the ability of local authorities to provide key functions and services. These can include areas needed after combat operations and contracted resources and services.

28. Capability x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Gov.
Council
Member
Poor M
Middle
Merchants G x P x x x
Gov.
Council
Member x x x x
Imam
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x
Police x
Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x TL x x x x x x
Police
Poor x x x x x
Tribal
Leader
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Imam x x x x x x x
Tribal
Leader x x
Gov.
Council
Member x x x
Rich
Ex Regime x x x x x x
Tribal
Leader x x
Doctor
Police
Chief
Middle
Merchants
Poor x x
Tribal
Leader x x x x

29. Organizations
Consider all nonmilitary groups or institutions in the AO Cultural, Social, Religious
Tribes
Political Wings of Insurgent Groups
PRT
Non-government organizations (NGOs)
Private Sector (Companies)
International Red Cross
OGAs
Contractors
Media (TV, Radio, Newspapers, Periodical, 24/7)
Consider all nonmilitary groups or institutions in the AO. These may be indigenous, come from a third country or US agencies. They influence and interact with the populace, force, and each other. Current activities, capabilities, and limitations are some of the information necessary to build situational understanding. This becomes often a union of the resources and specialized capabilities.
Transition: P for People

30. Organization x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Poor
Middle
Merchants M G x P x x x x x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x
Poor x x x x x x x x x x P x x x x x x x x x x M x x x x x x x x x x x x
Squatters x G x x
Middle
Merchants
Poor x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Squatters x x x x x x P M x x x
Rich
Ex Regime x x x x G x x x x G P
Middle
Merchants M
Poor x x x x x x P
Squatters

31. People
All nonmilitary personnel that military forces encounter in the AO
Sheiks
City council leaders
Imams
Professionals
Displaced persons or “squatters”
Sources
Tribal Leaders
Include how these people communicate. This is important to see the best way to provide I/O both friendly and enemy.
People is a general term describing all nonmilitary personnel that military forces encounter in the AO. This includes those personnel outside the AO whose actions, opinions, or political influence can affect the mission. Identify the key communicators and the formal and informal processes used to influence people. In addition, consider how historical, cultural, and social factors that shape public perceptions beliefs, goals, and expectations.
Why are squatters important? They are swayable; they have no governance, little sustenance, and are very susceptible to coercion; do we coerce?
Lack of GOVT
Vulnerable population
Leadership
TRANSITION: How do people communicate??

32. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

33. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

34. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

35. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

36. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

37. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
Cell phones
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

38. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
Cell phones
Graffiti
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies

39. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
Cell phones
Graffiti
Internet
Instant access to the world
Transition: Meetings

40. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
Cell phones
Graffiti
Internet
Meetings
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies
Transition: IO

41. People What are the key methods of communication used in the area?
Word of Mouth
Mosques
Tea shops
Satellite TV
Cell phones
Graffiti
Internet
Meetings
I/O Products
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies
TRANSITION: NEXT: E FOR EVENTS:

42. People Tie people/leaders to method of communication
How does the Tribal leader communicate and pass word of mouth? Tea shops, tribal council meetings, mosque
Imam? Mosque, during charity events for IDPs
Merchants? On the corners in market sector were they gather to smoke and eat
Various outspoken Tribal members? Tea shops, graffiti, radio
These are some of the vehicles by which I/O plans are executed; both your and the enemies
TRANSITION: NEXT: E FOR EVENTS:

43. People x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Graffiti
Graffiti M G x P x x x x x T x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x
Graffiti G x x x x x x x x x G x P x x x x x x x x x x x x x x TL M x x G x x x x G x x T x G G x
Graffiti x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G
Tea
Shops x G x x x x x x x x x x x G x x P T
Tea
Shops M x x x x T x TL x x G x x TL x G x P
Tea
Shops TL
Graffiti M x x x x G x T x P

44. Events
Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations
Saddam Hussein’s Trial
National Elections
Arbae’en
Anniversary of the Ba’ath Party
Ramadan
Id’Al Fitr
Funerals
Political Rallies
Hitting the 2000 casualty mark
Abu Graib
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

45. Events
Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations
Saddam Hussein’s Trial
National Elections
Arbae’en
Anniversary of the Ba’ath Party
Ramadan
Id’Al Fitr
Funerals
Political Rallies
Hitting the 2000 casualty mark
Abu Graib
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

46. Events
Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations
Saddam Hussein’s Trial
National Elections
Arbae’en
Anniversary (Ba’ath Party)
Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

47. Events
Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations
Saddam Hussein’s Trial
National Elections
Arbae’en
Anniversary (Ba’ath Party)
Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr
Funerals
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

48. Events
Events are routine, cyclical, planned, or spontaneous activities that significantly affect organizations, people, and military operations
Saddam Hussein’s Trial
National Elections
Arbae’en
Anniversary (Ba’ath Party)
Ramadan/Id’Al Fitr
Funerals
Political Rallies
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

49. Events Tie effect to event:
Annual pilgrimage Arbae’en is marked by sectarian attacks
Wedding brings members of the tribe with rifles for celebratory fire. (Important to know if wedding as day as raid on target) Potential I/O issue especially if wedding party fires on raiding party.
Friday prayer coincides with sectarian violence
Ba’ath Party is trigger for simultaneous attacks
Spring brings seasonal fighters from surrounding nations
Template events and analyze for their political, economic, psychological, environmental, and legal implications.
What is important about events? Insurgents use them:
Attacks i.e AMZ attacked mosque during Arbae’en last year.
Imam Hussain’s matyrdom: 40 days after his death…Shia pilgrimage to Karbala
Recruitment
Shape the battlefield; obstacles….we know the impact of attacking a Shrine, Mosque etc
Ramadan may effect the effectiveness of your IA…religious obligations can’t be ignored.
USE ISF to help understand their significance and how they will impact operations?
The Baghdad bridge stampede occurred on August 31, 2005 when up to 1,000 people died following a stampede on Al-Aaimmah bridge, which crosses the Tigris river in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. At the time of the stampede around one million pilgrims had gathered around or were marching toward the Kadhimiya mosque which is the shrine of the Imam Musa al-Kazim, one of the twelve Shi'a Imams. Around the shrine rumours of an imminent suicide bomb attack broke out and panic spread and people flocked back towards the bridge, which had been closed.
TRANSITION : USE ASCOPE TO ENHANCE IPB

50. Events x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xM G x P x x x x x T x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x x G x x x x x x x x x G x P x x x x x x x x x x x x M x x x TL x G x x x x G x x T x G G G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x G x x x G x x x x x x x x x G x x P T M x x x x T x TL x x G x x TL G x x P TL M x x x x G x x T P

51. Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE)
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

52. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

53. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

54. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Green
Water
Red
Electric
Academic
Yellow
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

55. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Red
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

56. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Red
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan 
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan
 Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician 
 Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas
Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

57. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Red
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan 
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan
 Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician 
 Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas
Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
IDPs/Refugees
2000 in Slum, SE Sector
 Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty
 Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)
  Marginalized by local government/police
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

58. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Red
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan 
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan
 Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician 
 Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas
Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
IDPs/Refugees
2000 in Slum, SE Sector
 Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty
 Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)
  Marginalized by local government/police
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
 Tea Shop
Grid /
Poor Wrks
 Al Sheik Rashad Zidan;
‘Word of Mouth’
 Recruiting, HUMINT, Propaganda, Pop. Control
 Nothing
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION

59. Market Data IPB I - Operational Environment (ASCOPE) Grid Sq 3476
Community, Neighborhood, Group (Center of Influence)
Data
Use x Perspectives
Population
Insurgents
Counterinsurgents
AREA (Where)
LOCATION
 Market
Grid Sq 3476
Center of
economic activity
Insurgents use for
black market
Semi-permissive
Environment
STRUCTURE
(Why Important)
 Sunni Mosque
Grid
 Center of religious life
 Safe area/cache
for Insurgents
 Protected site;
approval is needed
CAPABILITIES
(Who is Responsible)
STATUS
Sewer
Red
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan 
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan
 Abdul Al Karim, Director of Water
Water
Electric
Academic
Trash
Al Sheik Rashad Zidan: Nima Sarhid Tribe electrician 
 Sheik Zidan; providing generators and black market gas
Abu Sadeq Saba, City electrician
Medical
Security
ORGANIZATION
(What Groups in AO)
LOCATION/
DETAILS
IDPs/Refugees
2000 in Slum, SE Sector
 Drain on economy, but charity is their Muslim duty
 Source of recruits and Intel (eyes and ears)
  Marginalized by local government/police
PEOPLE
(How do they Communicate)
RECIPIENT
 Tea Shop
Grid /
Poor Wrks
 Al Sheik Rashad Zidan;
‘Word of Mouth’
 Recruiting, HUMINT, Propaganda, Pop. Control
 Nothing
EVENTS (When)
DTG/LOCATION
Religious Events/
Eid ul-Fitr
10-13 Oct,
Entire Sector
Feast that ends Ramadan, families get together
Recruiting, propaganda, attacks against non-Muslims
Opportunities to target HVIs returning home to be with family

60. Environment x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe B
Poor
Middle
Merchants x x x x T x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x
Poor G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Poor x x
Middle
Merchants x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe A x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe D x x x x
Rich
Ex Regime
Tribe C x x
Legend/Key
Middle
Merchants
Mortar/Rocket
Poor x
IED/SAF SigAct x x x T x
Tea Shop x G
Enemy I/O
Graffiti

61. Environment x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe B
Poor
Middle
Merchants x x x x T x x x x
FOB
GIGANTOR x x
Poor G x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Middle
Merchants
Poor x x x x x x x
Insurgents attack Tribe A’s economic rivals to secure their support x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe A x x x
Sectarian Violence
Insurgency x x x x x x x x x x x
Tribe D x x x x
Rich
Ex Regime
Tribe C x x
Legend/Key
Middle
Merchants
Mortar/Rocket
Poor x
IED/SAF SigAct x x x T x
Tea Shop x G
Enemy I/O
Graffiti

62. Questions?