Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byHubert Bryan Modified over 9 years ago
1
November 6, 20091 A Perspective on the Wisconsin Economy: Past, Present, and Future This presentation is based on information supplied by the U.S. Bureau Of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, various divisions of the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. National forecasts are provided by Global Insight, Inc. Wisconsin Economics Association November 6, 2009
2
2 About Us Who We Are –Division of Research and Policy Analysis consists of 12 professionals: economists, information technology professionals, and policy analysts What We Do –Analyze the State and National Economy Wisconsin is one of only seven states with a dedicated econometric model to forecast –Results are published quarterly –Metropolitan forecasts annually Prepare specialized reports of interest on the state’s economy –Estimate the State’s General Fund Revenues –Prepare background analysis on state taxes and local finance –Cost and analyze state and local tax proposals Over 300 separate legislative bills Nearly 75 budget proposals Many more proposals that survive the “what-if” stage Find Our Reports Here –http://www.revenue.wi.gov/report/e.html#economyhttp://www.revenue.wi.gov/report/e.html#economy
3
November 6, 20093 Today’s Discussion 1)The Bad News: The financial crisis brought the US economy to near collapse. 2)The Good News: Recovery is underway. 3)The Bad News: The drop was so deep that full recovery will take years. 4)The Good News: Wisconsin will match or exceed US growth in 2010. 5)Wisconsin fares better than some critics realize.
4
The US Was In the Midst of a Long Hard Recession That Was Then…
5
November 6, 20095 U.S. At The End of A Very Long, Deep Recession Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis.Shaded area indicates period of recession Actual
6
November 6, 20096 Current Recession is Longest Since the Great Depression Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
7
November 6, 20097 In the Beginning, Job Losses Lighter in 2007-09 Recession than the Two Prior Recessions Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
November 6, 20098 Then This Happened: Financial Crisis Increased Interest Rates Despite Fed Efforts to Cut Rates Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
9
November 6, 20099 Financial Crisis Comparable to Great Depression Hits Late 2008
10
November 6, 200910 Recession On Top of A Recession After Eight Months, Employment Losses Took a Nasty Drop Beginning October 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
November 6, 200911 Wisconsin Lost a Decade of Job Growth in Six Months Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
November 6, 200912 Wisconsin Unemployment More than Doubled Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
November 6, 200913 Wealth Losses From Equities About the Same at a Comparable Stage of the Great Depression Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Standard and Poors
14
November 6, 200914 Household Net Worth Losses Nearly $14 Trillion from Peak Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
15
November 6, 200915 Lost Decade: Industrial Production Drops to 1998 Levels Production Dropped 15% Over 6 Quarters Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
16
November 6, 200916 Record Drop in Manufacturing Activity Source: Institute for Supply Management
17
November 6, 200917 Non-Manufacturing Dropped Faster Than Manufacturing Source: Institute for Supply Management
18
November 6, 200918 Kick Them While Their Down Housing Falls 55% in Seven Months Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics
19
November 6, 200919 Retail Sales Lost Four Years of Growth in Just Four Months Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
20
November 6, 200920 Wisconsin’s Sales Collections Drop for the First Time Ever in FY2009
21
November 6, 200921 Consumers Paying Down Credit Cards For the First Time, Revolving Credit is Dropping
22
November 6, 200922 Household Debt Service Down to 2001 Levels
23
November 6, 200923 Saving More
24
November 6, 200924 Wisconsin’s Income Taxes Drop for 1 st Time Aside from an ATB Tax Cut Yellow Bars are years of income tax rate reductions
25
Wisconsin Was Not the Epicenter of the Recession
26
November 6, 200926 10 States Set Unemployment Records in 2009 But Not Wisconsin Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
27
November 6, 200927 Wisconsin Economy Grew in 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
28
November 6, 200928 2008 Economic Growth Wisconsin Only Great Lakes State to Expand in 2008
29
November 6, 200929 Wisconsin Has Moved Up to the Great Lakes Average in GDP Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
30
November 6, 200930 And Nudged Ahead of the Great Lakes Average in Income Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
31
November 6, 200931 Wisconsin Housing Prices Declined Only Slightly Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority
32
November 6, 200932 Wisconsin Housing Prices Weakness In SE Corner and North of Highway 29
33
This is Now… The Recovery Has Started
34
November 6, 200934 Substantial Growth In Third Quarter Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis; Forecast--Global Insight, Inc.Shaded area indicates period of recession Actual Forecast
35
November 6, 200935 Industrial Production Up Three Straight Months First Time Since 2007 Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
36
November 6, 200936 Manufacturing Moves To Recovery Source: Institute for Supply Management
37
November 6, 200937 So Does Non-Manufacturing Source: Institute for Supply Management
38
November 6, 200938 Equity Markets Have Recovered from Early Year Losses Source: Standard & Poors
39
November 6, 200939 Household Net Worth Increased in 2009 2nd Quarter Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
40
November 6, 200940 Housing Crawling Out of the Bottom Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
41
November 6, 200941 Retail Sales On the Rise Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
42
November 6, 200942 Wisconsin Employment Stabilizing Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
43
November 6, 200943 Wisconsin Unemployment Improves Relative to US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
44
November 6, 200944 Still Below Historic High Unemployment During Wisconsin’s Two Worst Post-War Recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
45
November 6, 200945 Impact of Recession Varies Substantially by County
46
It Will Be A Long Road Back
47
November 6, 200947 Financial Crisis Still In The Background
48
November 6, 200948 Full Recovery Will Not Be Complete Until 1 st Qtr 2011 Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis Actual Forecast 2007Q4 Real GDP
49
November 6, 200949 Job Recovery Takes Even Longer Employment Losses More Severe Than Output Losses Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES); US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight Actual Forecast
50
Wisconsin will Match or Outpace US growth in 2010.
51
November 6, 200951 GDP: Wisconsin Matches US in 2009 Outperforms in 2010
52
November 6, 200952 Wisconsin Employment Prospects Improve in 2010
53
November 6, 200953 Net Hiring Resumes Early 2010
54
November 6, 200954 Employment Growth in Metropolitan Areas of Wisconsin
55
November 6, 200955 Regional Unemployment Rates 2008-2010
56
November 6, 200956 Personal Income Growth By MSA, 2009-2010
57
Wisconsin Better Off Than Its Critics Realize
58
November 6, 200958 Wisconsin Among States with an Unemployment Rate Significantly Below US Average
59
November 6, 200959 Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Lowest in the Great Lakes Region
60
November 6, 200960 BLS Reports Wisconsin in Top Half For Median Wage Rates
61
November 6, 200961 Wisconsin Ranks 18 th in Median Household Income Source: US Bureau of the Census
62
November 6, 200962 Wisconsin Per Capita Income In a Consistent Range Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
63
November 6, 200963 Regional Price Parities (RPP) Wisconsin Personal Income Nearly Identical to U.S. Once Differences In Regional Prices are Recognized Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, Nov. 2008
64
November 6, 200964 Health Insurance Coverage Wisconsin Ranks 4th in the Nation Source: US Bureau of the Census
65
November 6, 200965 Wisconsin Ranks 30 th in Population Growth Source: US Bureau of the Census
66
November 6, 200966 Wisconsin Has Net In-Migration Source: US Bureau of the Census
67
November 6, 200967 Wisconsin Ranks 18 th in Business Taxes Below the US Average Source: Ernst & Young, Total State and Local Business Taxes: 50 State Estimates for Fiscal Year 2008, January 2009 U.S. Average 4.9%
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.