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Global Economic Outlook June 2009
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Good News
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Credit Standards Getting Easier
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Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Bonds
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10-yr Treasury Yields
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Concerns
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Sources of Economic Growth
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Percent of Long-term Unemployed
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Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
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Housing
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State & Local Governments
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S&L Budget Gaps
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State and Local Government Drag
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S&L Purchases as % of GDP
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Sales Tax Collections
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State and Local Property Taxes
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Stimulus No Ammunition
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Budget Deficits % of GDP
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Exit Strategy
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Real Federal Funds Rate
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Inflation Expectations
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OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap
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Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate
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Change Policy Language Interest Rate Sell MBS
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U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast
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European Economic Growth
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European Bank’s Exposure to Greece Billions of US dollars
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Share of U.S. Exports
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Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain
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Debt Maturity Schedule
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Who Should Leave Euro? PIGS Germany
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Euro Breakup? Political Union Vs. Economic Union
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Two Euros Black Euro Vs. Red Euro
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Global Debt Problem
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Solve Debt Problem? Growth Default Inflation
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Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%
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Over 100% Stunt Growth
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Euro Economic Growth (% change Year over Year) Forecast
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Asia Economic Growth
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Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.
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Asian Dependence on Europe
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Asian Exports to AE and China
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China’s Economy
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China’s Infrastructure Spending
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China’s Bank Lending
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China’s Property Prices
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China’s Inflation
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Value of Chinese Yuan
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China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast
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Global Imbalance
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Rebalancing Global Trade
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Stocks
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Contrarian Indicator?
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