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Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Economic Outlook June 2009

2 Good News

3

4

5

6 Credit Standards Getting Easier

7

8

9 Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Bonds

10 10-yr Treasury Yields

11 Concerns

12 Sources of Economic Growth

13

14

15 Percent of Long-term Unemployed

16

17 Unemployment Rate and NAIRU

18 Housing

19

20

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22 State & Local Governments

23 S&L Budget Gaps

24 State and Local Government Drag

25 S&L Purchases as % of GDP

26 Sales Tax Collections

27 State and Local Property Taxes

28 Stimulus No Ammunition

29

30 Budget Deficits % of GDP

31

32

33

34 Exit Strategy

35

36 Real Federal Funds Rate

37 Inflation Expectations

38 OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap

39

40 Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate

41 Change Policy Language Interest Rate Sell MBS

42 U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

43 European Economic Growth

44 European Bank’s Exposure to Greece Billions of US dollars

45 Share of U.S. Exports

46

47 Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain

48

49 Debt Maturity Schedule

50

51

52 Who Should Leave Euro? PIGS Germany

53 Euro Breakup? Political Union Vs. Economic Union

54 Two Euros Black Euro Vs. Red Euro

55 Global Debt Problem

56 Solve Debt Problem? Growth Default Inflation

57 Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%

58 Over 100% Stunt Growth

59 Euro Economic Growth (% change Year over Year) Forecast

60 Asia Economic Growth

61 Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.

62 Asian Dependence on Europe

63 Asian Exports to AE and China

64 China’s Economy

65 China’s Infrastructure Spending

66 China’s Bank Lending

67 China’s Property Prices

68 China’s Inflation

69 Value of Chinese Yuan

70 China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

71 Global Imbalance

72 Rebalancing Global Trade

73 Stocks

74 Contrarian Indicator?

75

76

77 DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)


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