1. Basic Economic Concepts

2. OBJECTIVE: The student will become familiar with the following items: Economic Fundamentals –Scarcity –Choices –Basis of Benefits Estimates Types of Costs Equivalence of Money Values Evaluation Tools

3. SCARCITY: Limited Resources + Unlimited Wants and Needs = The Fundamental Economic Problem

4. SCARCITY: Virtually no resource is available in limitless supply Tendency to view everything as an “indispensable necessity” We can’t do everything

5. Choices: Limited resources with unlimited wants and needs forces decisions Choosing one thing means giving up another (opportunity cost) Economics examines the logic of choices among available possibilities

6. Choices: Optimal decisions select the most desirable option among the possibilities that the resources permit Choices have costs They cost us the opportunity to do something else.

7. Basis of Benefits:

8. Demand PRICE QUANTITY

9. Demand PRICE QUANTITY P1 P2 Q1Q2

10. Demand PRICE QUANTITY Area Under Demand Curve is Total Willingness to Pay (TWTP)

11. Area Under Demand Curve PRICE QUANTITY P Q

12. Area Under Demand Curve PRICE QUANTITY P Q Amount Paid for Q Quantity

13. Area Under Demand Curve PRICE QUANTITY P Q Amount Paid for Q Quantity Area You Did Not Have to Pay Q1 P1

14. Consumer Surplus PRICE QUANTITY P Q Amount Paid for Q Quantity Consumer Surplus

15. Example of Consumer Surplus Benefits: PRICE QUANTITY P1 P2 Q1Q2 A plan reduces the price from P1 to P2: Initial Consumer Surplus (CS) at Price P1 is Yellow Area

16. Example of Consumer Surplus: PRICE QUANTITY P1 P2 Q1Q2 A plan reduces the price from P1 to P2: Consumer Surplus gain from Yellow Area to net gain in Blue Area. Consumer Surplus Gain

17. Supply PRICE QUANTITY

18. Supply PRICE QUANTITY P1 Q1

19. Producer Surplus PRICE QUANTITY P1 Q1 This area is the amount of money the producer receives in excess of the cost of producing Q1.

20. Producer Surplus PRICE QUANTITY P1 Q1 Producer Surplus Amount it cost to produce Q1

21. Total Surplus = Consumer + Producer Surplus PRICE QUANTITY Consumer Surplus Producer Surplus

22. Summary: Estimating Benefits These concepts guide our thinking. We rarely have demand or supply curves. Use your basic economic models to think about situations. We devise clever ways to approximate these areas.

23. Willingness To Pay Benefit Estimation - Approaches Actual or simulated market price Change in net income Cost of the most likely alternative Administratively established values

24. Costs:

25. Opportunity Cost: The cost of forgoing certain opportunities or alternatives in favor of pursuing others.

26. Opportunity Cost: Job Search You currently earn $50,000 You start a business and earn $40,000 profit How are costs defined?

27. Opportunity Cost: $40,000 accounting profit $10,000 economic loss The cost of opening the business is the forgone opportunity to make $50,000

28. Opportunity Cost: Explicit Cost –Out-of-pocket cost Implicit Costs –Non-cash costs Opportunity Costs = Explicit + Implicit

29. Other Costs: Incremental Costs –Costs that change due to a decision –Only relevant costs of the decision Sunk Costs –Do not vary across alternatives (including without project) –Do not influence optimal choice

30. Associated Costs: The costs of measures needed over and above project measures to achieve the benefits claimed during the period of analysis. For example: irrigation water supply laterals, electric transmission lines Should be included in the net benefits and benefit to cost ratio

31. Economic vs. Financial Costs Economic = Opportunity Costs –Explicit and Implicit Costs Financial or Accounting Costs –Explicit or Actual Cost

32. IDC: Interest During Construction Conceptually, is compounding pre-base year costs forward to account for time value of money Only an economic cost Sample calculations in your notebook

33. Equivalence of Money:

34. Sums of money that occur at different points in time cannot be directly compared to one another.

35. Equivalence of Money: Price Level Time Value

36. Price Level: The same price levels should be used at each point in time Select a common point in time as reference (base year) Resulting in: –Constant relative prices –Real prices

37. Time Equivalence: What is time value of money? Money has potential earning power Purchasing power changes over time Differences in utility through time

38. Price Level: One ton of Reinforcing Steel Selected price level does not matter Consistency matters Such values can be found industry sources (ENR, Dodge, USACE CCWCI)

39. Price Level: Costs occur at different times –Construction costs are pre-base year and base year –O&M costs are post-base year Benefits can occur throughout the analysis

40. Time Equivalence: $ $ $ Time Base Year

41. Time Equivalence: Pre-base year values are brought forward in time by compounding. Post-base year values are brought back in time by discounting.

42. Time Equivalence: Example Cost Schedule 1997$100Compound 2002$100Constant 2007$100Discount 2002 Price Levels

43. Time Equivalence: 1997 Compounding $100 x (1.1) 5 = $100 x 1.61 = $161 $100 spent in 1997 grows to $161 by 2002 Calculations with 10% interest rate

44. Time Equivalence: 2007 Discounting $100 x (1.1) -5 = $100 x 0.62 = $62 $100 expected expenditures in 2007 shrinks to $62 by 2002 Calculations with 10% interest rate

45. Time Equivalence: Project Costs 2002 Prices 1997 + 2002 + 2007 = Total Costs 161 + 100 + 62 = $ 323

46. Time Equivalence: Changes in purchasing power are irrelevant to Corps planning. Discounting done to account for time value, not for inflation.

47. Average Annual Costs (AAC) All costs (and benefits) over time are put in same price level and time and summed (total present worth) Corps of Engineers evaluate on an average annual basis (AAC) Done by applying factor based on appropriate Federal interest rate

48. Decision Criteria

49. Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) Computed by dividing the Average Annual Benefits by Average Annual Costs Reflects the efficiency of a project Not the Federal selection criteria

50. Net National Economic Development (NED) Benefits The total NED average annual benefits minus the NED average annual costs Net NED Benefits = AAB – AAC Used as the selection criteria, the project with highest net NED benefits

51. Review:

52. Review: Basics of Economics Fundamental economic problem? Scarcity Basis of economic benefits? Consumer Surplus

53. Review: Costs –Costs are important –Different types of costs are used at different points in the process –Economists care about opportunity and incremental costs

54. Review: Time Equivalence of Money –Price Levels Values expressed in any common point in time –Time Value Discount and escalate values to bring to the base year

55. Review: Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) = ratio of AAB/AAC Net NED Benefits = AAB – AAC

56. Discussion