1. Air Pollution Risks The Causality Loop of Human Activity and its Consequences Brandon Gustafson

2. Causality Loop Human activity and its associated risks operate in a loop Populations engage in activities that affect their welfare These activities spur a chain of events that leads to the associated risk of these activities These risks work to further effect welfare From here actions are taken and the cycle repeats This presentation will detail the steps and provide an example Using the example we will estimate ways to reduce the risks Next we will put our example in perspective Finally we offer some commentary and some analysis

3. Causality Loop

4. General Description Given Population Participates in activities which increase welfare Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities Goods and services require materials

5. General Description Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects Each effect posses different risks to humans

6. General Description These risks in turn effect our welfare Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action These actions lead to a changes in our activity

7. Quantification of Risk

8. Start with a given population Engages in “a” activities person Which requires “g” goods and services per activity In turn requires “m” materials per good and service required

9. Quantification of Risk The use of materials produces pollution with concentration “c” per mass flow of material The concentration level has effect “e” per concentrate Which produces risk “r” per effect

10. Quantification of Risk The coefficients are multiplied to find the overall risk This effects welfare and action is taken To reduce risk action can be taken at any node affecting the coefficient associated with it and thus the overall equation

11. Key Features The entire process functions in a loop Each action is connected to overall welfare Overall welfare affects future action Ideally an equilibrium is reached where utility is maximized while risk is minimized

12. Example People like to consume electricity They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity

13. California Electricity 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity residentially in the year 2000 61.9 kWh per dollar ($) GSP Or, 2300 kWh per person Brown, Richard E. and Jonathon G. Koomey, “Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns” May 2002 UC-Berkley

14. California Pollution Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels flow to power production plants Pollution is produced Pollution in units of pounds per kWh is listed below for 8 major pollutants CO 2 lbs/kWh NO x lbs/kWh SO 2 lbs/kWh Hg lbs/kWh PM 10 lbs/kWh PM 2.5 lbs/kWh VOC lbs/kWh CO lbs/kWh California0.6330.000522.0001734.21x10 -11 0.0000060.0000080.0000260.000175 Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

15. Pollution Density Table depicts the amount of pollution per person However, this is only accounting for residential use, which is typically the end use anyway CO 2 lbs/person NO x lbs/person SO 2 lbs/person Hg lbs/person PM 10 lbs/person PM 2.5 lbs/person VOC lbs/person CO lbs/person California1456.51.20.3989.7x10 -8 0.0210.0180.060.403 Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

16. California Effects The effects of these pollutants are mild and severe Respiratory problems to simply impaired visibility Especially the young, the old, and the asthmatic

17. California Risks The risk depends on the person Each year 50,000 people are estimated to have died from air pollution Those with previous lung conditions are at the greatest risk Although, we are all at elevated risk

18. Welfare to Action Reduced health and death reduce welfare Reduced welfare spurs action Governmental agencies set pollution limits California Air Resources Board website goes online

19. Types of Actions To increase welfare and/or reduce risk Reducing the population would reduce risk Reducing activity will decrease risk but may also decrease welfare Use less materials i.e. be more efficient Output lower concentrations of pollutants Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk

20. Actions and the Causality Coefficients At each node actions can be taken to reduce the overall risk Population is difficult to change but people can change their actions

21. Action Example People can turn their lights off sooner in the day and use 5% less electricity Engineers can improve transmissions lines and light bulb efficiency so that each activity requires 5% fewer kWh

22. Action Example Engineers can increase factory efficiency by 5%, using less raw materials to produce each kWh Factories can use different fuels that have 5% less pollutants in terms of concentration

23. Action Example Care can be taken in selecting fuels and combustion techniques so that the effect of any pollutants emitted is reduced by 5% Communities can plan where to build factories and people can be smart about when they conduct certain activities reducing the risk by 5%

24. Action Example These simple reductions lead to an overall decrease of 26.5% of what it otherwise would be 0.95a*0.95g*0.95m*0.95c*0.95e*0.95r*P = 0.735(a*g*m*c*e*r*P) => 26.5% reduction

25. World Perspective Although different units, the comparison is striking CitySO2 Micrograms per cu. m Population Thousands Los Angeles912, 410 Tehran2096, 836 Rio de Janeiro12910, 181 http://www.worldbank.org/nipr/wdi98/table3.1 2.pdf WHO Healthy Cities Air Management Information System and the World Resources Institute 1996

26. Comments and Analysis Each action is made through a single decision However, the consequences to these actions are borne by all This is known as an externality and subsequently is a market failure People are not aware of the full cost of conducting their action and therein lies the problem To remedy this problem the community can educate but this provides little incentive In truth, education combined with externality taxation is best Improvement can be made at any node However, factory efficiency is pretty good and marginal improvements are small The big improvements need to come from efficiency of human activity More activity does not always mean better welfare but it does mean greater risk Also in the long run a shift to a cleaner energy source is a must

27. Summary The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a cycle Human welfare is adjusted up and down respectively by increased human activity which leads to increased risk The cycle was explained and an example was presented to demonstrate the cycle A hypothetical experiment estimated the ways to reduce the overall risk of activity After analyzing a US city, the numbers were put into perspective with the rest of the world Finally comments and analysis were offered