2. 2 Dr. Ozcan Saritas  Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon, 1620).  Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of labor, and very pretty machines... facilitate and quicken production... (Adam Smith, 1776).  The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848).  Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy (Alfred Marshall, 1897).  The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the driving force in all economic development... (Joseph Schumpeter, 1911).  Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of future economic and societal development... (Vannevar Bush, 1945).

3. What future for nano? Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns Trends Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements Drivers of change

4. 4 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services Global value chains and production networks

5. 5 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Innovation paradigm has shifted from technology and markets to ecosystems of research and social networks, services and policy Linear model of innovation is outpaced. Focus on ‘integration and networking’ Innovation as a dynamic ‘system’: It is multidisciplinary and technologically complex Global innovation landscape – with advances coming from centers of excellence around the world and the demands of billions of new consumers Relationship between technology and society: Social Shaping of Technology-Framework Necessity to diagnose the changing Innovation landscape to address these issues for ‘Foresightful Innovation’

6. 6 Dr. Ozcan Saritas IF draws on the systematic involvement of stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process by discovering future opportunities and risks and informing present-day decision-making, strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory.

7. 7 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Anticipation and projections of long-term developments Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis Forging new social networks Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment Implications for present-day decisions and actions

8. 8 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Multi-context focus – Understanding real-life systems and natural settings – Long-term focus with intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks Inclusivity – Participation of all stakeholders on equal terms – Involvement troughout whole process Methodological support – Integration of best practices, methods and tools – Understanding the shortcomings of traditional user research methods (plasticity)

9. 9 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Fits in open, society-driven innovation paradigm Facilitates future-oriented dialogue between the relevant stakeholders in the systemic innovation process Enables collective visioning, mutual learning and networking and Yields long term strategic orientation, future innovation opportunities and research priorities Aims at greater inclusivity through SST-approach to Foresight Inclusive process draws on formal Foresight methods

10.  Intelligence –Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand  Imagination –The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world  Integration –Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future  Interpretation –Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme  Intervention –Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations IntelligenceImaginationIntegrationInterpretationIntervention

11. 11 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Scanning Panels Workshops Bibliometrics / Data Mining Literature Review Interviews System Analysis Trends/Drivers Indicators Scanning for Intelligence gathering  “The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)  Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning  Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of Trends, Drivers of Change, Wild Cards / Shocks, Weak Signals and Discontinuities

12. 12 Dr. Ozcan Saritas  What kind of developments will occur?  Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful?  How soon may these developments occur?  What might be the first signs that these developments are happening?  Where and how might the leading indications of impending change be seen?  Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications?  What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these indications?  Who needs to know about these impending changes?

13. 13 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values

14. [Reger, 2001]

15. Evidence-based Foresight & Policy: Using best evidence to make decisions about the future Fit between expertise, expectations and evidence Subjectivity of information Quality of data

16. EU-27, North America and Asia-Pacific are the core regions affected by most of the trends Environmental sustainability, alternative energy sources, increasing conflicts and enhancement of S&T are globally shared trends Equal opportunities, increased consumption, privacy and security concerns are connected largely to the Western world Ageing population is a concern in the EU and EU candidate countries and North America World regions Trends BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions

17. 2008-2015 Environmental and sustainability concerns are shared by all Changing socio- economic patterns and environmental and sustainability concerns are tightly linked Financial crisis close to the core issues BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

18. 2016-2025 The relationship between environmental and sustainability concerns, alternative energy sources, and the role of S&T is emphasised by all Ageing population is a more shared concern Financial crisis becomes more peripheral for world regions BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

19. 2025 - beyond Climate change is right at the centre and becomes appreciated by all world regions More emphasis on the scarcity of natural resources No mention of financial crisis, globalisation, and new diseases and pandemics BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

20. 20 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Gaming Panels Workshops Scenario Planning Wild Card Weak Signals Network Analysis Modelling / Simulation Agent Based Modelling “Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome

22. People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

23. 1-year Present The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun once Cycle of seasons Unit of time measurement for human lives Farming and crop rotation 10-year Present Sizeable chunk of a human lifetime Long enough to provide insight into dynamic processes Ideal for noting environmental and ecological factors A reasonable horizon for testing new products and services The time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items 20-year Present Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980); The Nexters (1980-2000)) Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCs scientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974- 1990) 50-year Present Incorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced culture Culturally significant period to understand trends and change processes Enough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies 100-year Present Boundary of a single lifetime Long cycles can be distinguished The rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystems Theories and history and futures begin to flourish 200-year Present Ideal timeframe for cultures in transition A time with which generations are linked Enough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogue The rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystems Macro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

24. 24 Dr. Ozcan Saritas SWOT Analysis Panels Workshops Multi Criteria Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Scoring Voting/Rating  Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision  The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.  For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).  The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future

25. 25 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Backcasting Panels Workshops Road Mapping Relevance Trees Logic Charts Strategic Planning Linear Programming  Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme.  Conditions for the successful transformation strategies: -Assessment (e.g. processing information; developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system) -Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources) -Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions) -Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours) -Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)

26. 26 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Priority Lists Panels Workshops Impact Assessment R&D Planning Critical/Key Technologies Operational Planning Action Planning  Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions.  Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.  Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation: -Adapting -Influencing and shaping its context -Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in its context -Adding value to the viability and development of wider wholes in which it is embedded

27. 27 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Interaction Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system – Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights – Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation – Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework – Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity

28. 28 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Science & Ecology Technology & Economics Socioeconomics Politics & Values What is possible? What is desirable? What is feasible? Systemic Foresight

29. 29 Dr. Ozcan Saritas InterventionInterpretation Imagination Intelligence Integration Scanning Panels Workshops Interaction Bibliometrics / Data Mining Literature Review Interviews System Analysis Trends/Drivers Indicators Priority Lists Panels Workshops Impact Assessment R&D Planning Critical/Key Technologies Operational Planning Action Planning Gaming Panels Workshops Scenario Planning Wild Card Weak Signals Network Analysis Modelling / Simulation Agent Based Modelling SWOT Analysis Panels Workshops Multi Criteria Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Scoring Voting/Rating Backcasting Panels Workshops Road Mapping Relevance Trees Logic Charts Strategic Planning Linear Programming