1. From Constants to Variables How the coming together of geophysical, geoeconomic, and geopolitical changes may affect the Nordic Region Cleo Paskal Associate Fellow, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London Author, Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010) Seas the future Nordic Oceans Conference, Nordic House, 7 June 2011

2. Is the Faroe Islands part of the Arctic?

3. What are the geophysical changes in the Arctic?

7. What are the economic changes in the Arctic?

9. Actual Arctic major oil & gas fields with projected shipping routes

10. Undiscovered Arctic oil fields

11. Undiscovered Arctic gas fields

12. What are the geopolitical changes in the Arctic?

13. What are corporate priorities? Meeting between U.S. Officials and Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov Sept. 19. 2008 Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov – to fulfill the gas needs of domestic industrial and residential consumers –to fulfill its "social obligations," which include a variety of, in effect, charitable projects throughout the country. Americans –maximizing shareholder value? Gazprom’s Zolotov: –to maximize control over global energy resources

14. Bringing together geophysical, economic and geopolitics changes

15. Sample of effect of thawing permafrost

16. Energy infrastructure on permafrost Blue: Electrical transmission lines Yellow: Pipelines Red: Bilibino nuclear power station Source: Nature

17. Potential implications of permafrost thaw (one scenario) 17 Overland transmission becomes difficult/expensive as pipelines become unstable. Build up of shipping fleet, particularly in Russia. More flexible delivery system, potentially more subject to political factors Geopolitical power through control of supply, and having infrastructure in place, may result in persual of new supplies even more aggressively. Arctic build-up (Russia dominates region with icebreakers, etc.). Increased ease of access for other states, such as China.

18. China Already has research bases in Antarctic and Arctic. Already has icebreaker. Large number of Chinese nationals working in Siberia. Actively courting Canadian Aboriginal leaders.

19. Fall of 2008, around 25 Canadian Aboriginal leaders invited to China. Some quotes: Delegation head Chief Calvin Helin "Canadian aboriginals own or control about a third of the Canadian land mass." Went to Beijing to "tell China that Aboriginal Canada was open for business.” Chief Helin told Chinese political and business leaders "The biggest source for uncertainty for developing natural resources in Canada is aboriginal land claims. If aboriginal people are your partners, that uncertainty disappears.” Chief Glenn Hudson of Manitoba's Peguis Indian Band explained that the trip was "an important step for us in moving forward. Our future is not only in Canada, but partnering with other countries."

20. Challenges Going Forward –Environmental damage –S&R costs –Border security –Disruptions to traditional economies –Outsiders seeking to destabilize internal politics for short-term advantage –Eco-protests

21. Ways Forward

22. The changes will bring costs and benefits. The Faroes will be sharing the cost anyway, so might as well share in the benefits for a more stable future.

23. Thank you Takk