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Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01.

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Presentation on theme: "Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01."— Presentation transcript:

1 Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01

2 “In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.” Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

3 prior 900 years 1900s: 1 st 20 years > 1800s 2000: 10 years for paradigm shift 21 st century: 1000X tech change than 20 th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”) Ray Kurzweil, talk april2001

4 Part I: Brand Inside Part II: Brand Outside Part III: Brand Leadership

5 Forces @ Work I The Destruction Imperative!

6 Forget>“Learn” “The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get the old ones out.” Dee Hock

7 “It used to be that the big ate the small. Now the fast eat the slow.” Geoff Yang, IVP/ (Institutional Venture Partners)

8 Read It Closely: “We don’t sell insurance anymore. We sell speed.” Peter Lewis, Progressive

9 “Assetless Company” John Bryan, CEO, on selling all Sara Lee’s manufacturing

10 “Don’t own nothin’ if you can help it. If you can, rent your shoes.” F.G.

11 The [New] G e Way DYB.com

12 The Gales of Creative Destruction +29M = -44M + 73M +4M = +4M - 0M

13 Forbes100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive in ’87; 18 are in ’87 F100; the 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market from 1917 to 1987. S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’57 were alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997. Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market

14 Brand Inside Brand Org: Lean, Linked, Electronic & Malleable

15 White Collar Revolution!

16 108 X 5 vs. 8 X 1* * 540 vs. 8 (-98.5%)

17 The Pincer 5 “Destructive” entrepreneurs/ Global Competition “White Collar Robots” THE INTERNET! [E.g.: GM + Ford + DaimlerChrysler] Global Outsourcing [E.g.: India, Mexico] Speed!!

18 “A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.” Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach

19 Automation+ 75% of what we do: 40 “expert” decision rules!

20 80,000?

21 IBM’s Project Eliza!

22 Brand Inside Brand Work: The Professional Service Firm Model & The WOW Project

23 So what will be the Basic Building Block of the New Org?

24 Answer: PSF! [Professional Service Firm] Department Head to … Managing Partner, HR [IS, etc.] Inc.

25 11 September 2000

26 09.11.2000: HP bids $18,000,000,000 for PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting business!

27 [“These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the price of entry.” Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard]

28 % Rev From Service: GE (80%) … IBM (80%) … HP … Sun????

29 Maybe one [or more] of your “PSFs” becomes the tail that wags the dog????? [E.g.: engineering, IS-logistics- customer service]

30 The Raw Material … The WOW Project!

31 “Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.” Phil Daniels, Sydney exec

32 Brand Inside Brand You: Distinct … or Extinct

33 “New Economy changes how firms treat layoffs” Headline, USA Today (03.19.2001)

34 New World of Work < 1 in 10 F500 #1: Manpower Inc. Freelancers/I.C.: 16M-25M Temps: 3M (incl. CEOs & lawyers) Microbusinesses: 12M-27M Total: 31M-55M Source: Daniel Pink, Free Agent NationDaniel Pink

35 “If there is nothing very special about your work, no matter how hard you apply yourself, you won’t get noticed, and that increasingly means you won’t get paid much either.” Michael Goldhaber, Wired

36 Brand Inside Brand Talent: The Great War for Talent

37 “When land was the productive asset, nations battled over it. The same is happening now for talented people.” Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH

38 “We have transitioned from an asset-based strategy to a talent-based strategy.” Jeff Skilling, CEO, Enron

39 From “1, 2 or you’re out” [JW] to … “Best Talent in each industry segment to build best proprietary intangibles” [EM] Source: Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

40 “We believe companies can increase their market cap 50 percent in 3 years. Steve Macadam at Georgia-Pacific changed 20 of his 40 box plant managers to put more talented, higher paid managers in charge. He increased profitability from $25 million to $80 million in 2 years.” Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

41 Message: Some people are better than other people. Some people are a helluva lot better than other people.

42 “Top performing companies are two to four times more likely than the rest to pay what it takes to prevent losing top performers.” Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

43 What gets measured gets done. What gets paid for gets done more. What gets paid a lot for gets done a lot more.

44 “Talented people are less likely to wait their turn. We used to view young people as trainees; now they are authorities. Arguably this is the first time the older generation can – and must – leverage the younger generation very early in their careers.” Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00) Ed Michaels

45 The Cracked Ones Let in the Light “Our business needs a massive transfusion of talent, and talent, I believe, is most likely to be found among non-conformists, dissenters and rebels.” David Ogilvy

46 “AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers outshine their male counterparts in almost every measure” Title, Special Report, Business Week, 11.20.00

47 Message: Women are better at this “virtual organization” stuff!

48 Brand Inside Brand Action: Getting Started … a Personal Perspective

49 Topic: Boss-free Implementation of STM /Stuff That MATTERS!

50 THE IDEA “4Fs”: F ind a F ellow F reak F araway

51 World’s Biggest Waste … Selling “Up”

52 Heart of the Matter F2F!/K2K!/1@T/R.F.A.* *Freak to Freak/Kook to Kook/ One at a Time/ Ready.Fire!Aim.

53 “Lead” customers! K2KK

54 BOTTOM LINE The Enemy!

55 Joe J. Jones 1942 – 2001 HE WOULDA DONE SOME REALLY COOL STUFF BUT … HIS BOSS WOULDN’T LET HIM!

56 The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it. Michelangelo

57 Brand Inside Reprise: THINK WEIRD: The High Standard Deviation Enterprise

58 Saviors-in-Waiting Disgruntled Customers Fringe Competitors Rogue Employees Edge Suppliers Wayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue Employees

59 Button-down Org H.S.D.E.. Acquire for market share Suck up to biggest customers Pursue “strategic vendors” Bigger is better Accept assignments as given Hire 4.0s from “top schools” Promote when they’ve “paid their dues” Appoint a “prestigious” board Hang out with my pals R.A.F. Be “professional” at all times/Honor thine elders Acquire for innovation Partner with cool customers Seek out pioneering vendors Break it up … to refresh Reframe all tasks to innovate Hire “intriguing,” wherever Promote tomorrow if the work product is weird and WOW Appoint an interesting, headstrong board Take a freak to lunch today F.F.F. Stay loose, stay cool/The hell with thine elders

60 “Too many companies rely on benchmarking against industry leaders. The problem is that those companies are simply catching up to what’s already been done, while the leaders are moving on to some new advantage.” David Crane, on Michael Porter’s Canadian competitiveness study, which discovered an Innovation Deficit (05.05)

61 John Roth’s “Rules” [Nortel] 1. Our strategies must be tied to leading-edge customers on the attack. 2. Time cannot be sacrificed for better quality, lower cost, or even better decisions. 3. It doesn’t matter whether you develop or acquire leading technology. Our job is to provide the technology and products our customers need. 4. Success is achieved by leading change, not waiting for it. 5. We are paranoid about our leadership – willing to cannibalize our own products to maintain our edge. Source: Abridged from The Wall Street Journal (07.25.00)

62 “Our strategies must be tied to leading edge customers on the attack. If we focus on the defensive customers, we will also become defensive.” John Roth, CEO, Nortel

63 Part I: Brand Inside Part II: Brand Outside Part III: Brand Leadership

64 Forces @ Work II The Commodity Trap

65 “The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of similar companies, employing similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, working in similar jobs, coming up with similar ideas, producing similar things, with similar prices and similar quality.” Kjell Nordstrom and Jonas Ridderstrale, Funky Business

66 Brand Outside Strategy 1 : Use E-Commerce to Re-invent Everything!

67 Tomorrow Today: Cisco! 90% of $20B (=$50M/day) 75% mfg. outsourced; 50% of orders routed to supplier who ships direct Gross margin: 65%; Net margin: 28% Annual savings in service and support from customer self-management: $550M

68 Enron eWorld: “Price a structured trade,” per John Arnold, 26: Early 1999: 30 times a day. Late 2000: 30 times per … minute. Long-term gas contract. 1989: 9 months, 400+ deals. Late 90s: 2 weeks, 2 per week. Late 2000: 5 such deals per day Source: www.ecompany.com (1/2001)www.ecompany.com

69 GM/Ford/DaimlerChrysler/Renault/ Nissan/Oracle/CommerceOne Covisint (02.2000) $240B (+$500B) 90,000 Suppliers $2-3,000/Car 42 to 12-18 Months Source: Business2.0 (02.2001)

70 “This is the first meter of a 10-kilometer race. Eventually, all markets will come to resemble today’s foreign exchange market.” Hamid Biglari, Head of Corporate Strategy, Citigroup, in “GIGATRENDS”, Wired 04.01

71 COMMUNITY SERVICES!/ CUSTOMER CONTROL!

72 Tomorrow Today: Cisco! 90% of $20B; save $550M C.Sat e >> C.Sat H Customer Engineer Chat Rooms/Collaborative Design ($1B “free” consulting) (45,000 customer problems a week solved via customer collaboration)

73 RADICAL STRATEGIES REQUIRED

74 “One cannot be tentative about this. Excuses like ‘channel conflict’ or ‘marketing and sales aren’t ready’ cannot be allowed. Delay and you risk being cut out of your own market, perhaps not by traditional competitors but by companies you never heard of 24 months ago.” Jack Welch [07.00/Forbes.com]Forbes.com

75 GE & the Web Purchasing: 2000: $6B; 2001: $15B Sales: 1999: $1B; 2000: $7B; 2001: $20B+ Source: Business 2.0 (05.01)

76 “We’ve put the word out to all of our suppliers: by the end of the year [2000] we’ll only do purchasing over the Internet.” John Paterson, C.P.O., IBM [$50B from 18,000 suppliers]

77 Nasser’s Triad: The Internet Is the New Job 1 Brian Kelley, 40, head of global sales and service (GE appliances); first non-“car guy” in the job Karen Francis, 38, eBusiness czar (Olds brand boss) Marv Adams, 43, CIO (Bank One’s IT infrastructure consolidator)

78 WebWorld = Everything Web as a way to run your business’ innards Web as connector for your entire supply-demand chain Web as “spider’s web” which re-conceives the industry Web/B2B as ultimate wake-up call to “commodity producers” Web as the scourge of slack, inefficiency, sloth, bureaucracy, poor customer data Web as an Encompassing Way of Life Web = Everything (P.D. to after-sales) Web forces you to focus on what you do best Web as entrée, at any size, to World’s Best at Everything as next door neighbor

79 Message: eCommerce is not a technology play! It is a relationship, partnership, organizational and communications play, made possible by new technologies.

80 Message: There is no such thing as an effective B2B or Internet-supply chain strategy in a low-trust, bottlenecked- communication, six-layer organization.

81 “Ebusiness is about rebuilding the organization from the ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet. Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an ebusiness.” Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins

82 “There is no use trying,” said Alice. “One can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Lewis Carroll

83 I’net … … allows you to dream dreams you could never have dreamed before!

84 “We want to be the air traffic controllers of electrons.” Bob Nardelli, GE Power Systems

85 Message 2001: Only idiots pull in their [investment] horns during a downturn.

86 Brand Outside Strategy 2A : Women Rule!

87 ????????? Home Furnishings … 94% Vacations … 92% Houses … 91% Consumer Electronics … 51% Cars … 60% (90%) All consumer purchases … 83% Bank Account … 89% Health Care … 80%

88 $4.8T > Japan 9M/27.5M/$3.6T > Germany

89 Brand Outside Strategy 2B : Welcome to “Old World”!

90 2000-2010 Stats 18-44: -1% 55+: +21% (55-64: +47%)

91 Aging/“Elderly” $$$$$$$$$$$$ “I’m in charge!”

92 Brand Outside Strategy 2C : Welcome to “Green World”!

93 And #3: GREEN ?????: 50% to 36%: Protect Environment > Economic Growth. 58% to 34%: Protect Plants & Animals > Preserve Private Property Rights.

94 “Of all the ways the company will be judged over the next decade, none will be greater than our response to the issue of climate change.” William Clay FORD Jr.

95 Brand Outside Strategy 3 : It’s the Experience!

96 “ Experiences are as distinct from services as services are from goods.” Joseph Pine & James Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage

97 “The [Starbucks] Fix” Is on … “We have identified a ‘third place.’ And I really believe that sets us apart. The third place is that place that’s not work or home. It’s the place our customers come for refuge.” Nancy Orsolini, District Manager

98 Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!” “What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him.” Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based Leadership

99 The “Experience Ladder” Experiences Services Goods Raw Materials

100 1940: Cake from flour, sugar (raw materials economy): $1.00 1955: Cake from Cake mix (goods economy): $2.00 1970: Bakery-made cake (service economy): $10.00 1990: Party @ Chuck E. Cheese (experience economy) $100.00

101 Message: “Experience” is the “last 80%.” “Experience” applies to all work!

102 Brand Outside Strategy 4 : BRAND POWER!

103 “WHO ARE YOU [these days] ?” TP to Client

104 “WHO ARE WE?”

105 WHAT’S OUR STORY?

106 “EXACTLY HOW AM I/ ARE WE DIFFERENT?”

107 1 st Law Mktg Physics: OVERT BENEFIT (Focus: 1 or 2 > 3 or 4/“One Great Thing.” Source #1: Personal Passion) 2 ND Law: REAL REASON TO BELIEVE (Stand & Deliver!) 3 RD Law: DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE (Execs Don’t Get It: “intent to purchase” – 100%; “unique” – 0% to 5%) Source: Jump Start Your Business Brain, Doug Hall Doug Hall

108 “EXACTLY HOW DO I CONVEY THAT DIFFERENCE TO THE CLIENT ”

109 “Brand Promise” Exercise: (1) Who Are WE? (poem/novella/song, then 25 words.) (2) List three ways in which we are UNIQUE … to our Clients. (3) Who are THEY (competitors) ? (ID, 25 words.) (4) List 3 distinct “us”/”them” differences. (5) Try “results” on your teammates. (6) Try ’em on a friendly Client. (7) Big Enchilada: Try ’em on a skeptical Client!

110 Part I: Brand Inside Part II: Brand Outside Part III: Brand Leadership

111 Brand Leadership Passion Rules!

112 “Let’s make a dent in the universe.” Steve Jobs


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