1. Employment Projections Overview 2012-22
Erin Lane
Economist
Employment Projections Program
NAF Industry Panel
7/10/2014

2. Employment Projections Background
10-year projections made every 2 years
projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries
BLS projections prepared at the national level only

3. Employment Projections Products
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation
Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more

4. Employment Projections Process
Labor Force
Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity
Aggregate Economy
GDP, total employment, and major demand categories
Demographics
Fiscal policy
Foreign economies
Energy prices
Monetary policy
Population
Labor force participation rate trends
Occupational Employment
Job openings due to growth & replacement needs
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio analyses
Staff expertise
Replacement rates
Economic censuses
Annual economic surveys
Other data sources
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment
Industry Output
Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables
Industry output
Sector wage rates
Technological change
Input-Output Tables 4 4

5. Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22
Thousands of wage and salary jobs
Service providing
Goods producing

6. Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22
Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment
Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%
Service providing
Goods producing

7. Occupational Employment
Employment Outlook:
Occupational Employment

8. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

9. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group
Projected
Average, all occupations = 10.8%

10. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group
Thousands of jobs, projected

11. Fastest Growing Occupations
Percent change, projected
Median annual
wages, May 2012
$83,580
$19,910
$20,820
$39,170
$45,430
$65,860
$28,220
$53,240
$56,800
$52,160

12. Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations
Percent change, projected
Median annual
wages, May 2012
$20,820
$65,860
$53,240
$56,800
$52,160
$23,880
$90,930
$26,850
$79,860
$62,670

13. Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Thousands of jobs, projected
Median annual
wages, May 2012
$19,910
$65,470
$21,110
$20,820
$18,260
$24,420
$32,410
$30,580
$22,320
$29,990

14. Education and Training Classification
Consists of three categories of information for each occupation:
Typical education needed for entry
Work experience in a related occupation
Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

15. Education and Training Classification
Assignments to each category based on analysis by BLS analysts
Quantitative research
American Community Survey (ACS) data
O*NET data
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data
Qualitative research
Interviews with occupational experts

16. Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2012
Median annual
wages, May 2012
$96,420
$63,400
$67,140
$57,590
$34,760
$28,730
$35,170
$20,110
Thousands of jobs

17. Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category
Percent change, projected
Average, all occupations = 10.8%

18. Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category
Thousands of jobs, projected

19. Education and Training: Top 10 fastest-growing healthcare occupations
Occupation Title
Percent Change
Median annual wage, 2012
Typical education needed for entry
Typical on-the-job training needed
Home health aides
48.5
$20,820
Less than high school
Short-term on-the-job training
Diagnostic medical sonographers
46.0
$65,860
Associate's degree
None
Occupational therapy assistants
42.6
$53,240
Genetic counselors
41.2
$56,800
Master's degree
Physical therapist assistants
41.0
$52,160
Physical therapist aides
40.1
$23,880
High school diploma or equivalent
Physician assistants
38.4
$90,930
Occupational therapy aides
36.2
$26,850
Physical therapists
36.0
$79,860
Doctoral or professional degree
Orthotists and prosthetists
35.5
$62,670
Internship/residency

20. Typical education needed for entry Typical on-the-job training needed
Education and Training: Top 10 Healthcare Occupations with the largest job growth
Occupation Title
Job openings due to growth and replacement needs, , in thousands
Median annual wage, 2012
Typical education needed for entry
Typical on-the-job training needed
Registered nurses
1,052.6
$65,470
Associate's degree
None
Nursing assistants
593.6
$24,420
Postsecondary non-degree award
Home health aides
590.7
$20,820
Less than high school
Short-term on-the-job training
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
363.1
$41,540
Medical assistants
269.9
$29,370
Physicians and surgeons, all other
152.6
>=$187,200
Doctoral or professional degree
Internship/residency
Dental assistants
137.2
$34,500
Physical therapists
123.7
$79,860
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics
120.6
$31,020
Dental hygienists
113.5
$70,210

21. Typical entry-level education, Healthcare

22. Typical on-the-job training, Healthcare

23. Education Pays

24. Resources for Additional Information
Employment Outlook:
Resources for Additional Information

25. Occupational Outlook Handbook

26. Occupational Outlook Quarterly

27. Employment Projections Program

28. Useful Employment Projections Sites
Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data
Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles
Frequently asked questions

29. Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program www. bls
Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program