1. Budgeting Projects Chapter 9 Contemporary Project Management Kloppenborg © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

2. ChapterVignette ChapterVignette Elevator Sales Denver fast method bidding –Gather RFPs, plans, specifications –Put together an estimate –Conduct actual bidding Kansas City –Time to develop detailed cost estimates There are many methods of estimating project costs

3. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. At the end of this chapter… Define project cost terms and tell how each is used in estimating project cost. Compare and contrast analogous, parametric, and bottom-up methods of estimating cost. Describe issues in project cost estimating and how to deal with each. Create a time-phase bottom-up budget for a project. Show summary and bottom-up project budget information with cumulative costs using MS Project.

4. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Introduction to Project Budgeting Involves developing a cost management plan for a project For small projects  –Ensure accurate cost estimates –Secure the funding –Develop cost reporting procedures For large projects  –AND develop and use accurate cash flow estimates Cost management plan – “the document that sets out the format and establishes the activities and criteria for planning, structuring, and controlling the project costs.” PMBOK® Guide

5. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Purposes of the Cost Management Plan How to develop and share relevant, accurate and timely information for decision making Provides feedback linking the project to business objectives Provides detail and summary information Helps project stakeholders focus on schedule, performance, and cost.

6. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Estimate Cost Cost estimating is linked to scope, schedule, and resource planning Never lie to yourself –You must understand what the project costs really are Never lie to anyone else –Avoid shading the truth to secure necessary funding Cost estimating – “the process of developing an approximation of the cost of the resources needed to complete project activities.” PMBOK® Guide

7. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Estimate Cost Types of costs Timing and accuracy of cost estimates Methods used to estimate costs Cost estimating issues

8. Types of Costs Reserve

9. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Fixed vs. Variable Fixed costs remain the same regardless of volume of work Variable costs vary directly with volume of use Cost curve reflects as low a total cost as possible at the current project size Fixed and variable costs involve consideration of the project scope

10. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Project cost and volume curve

11. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Direct vs. indirect Direct costs only occur because of the project –Direct labor –Other direct costs – material, travel, consultants, subcontracts, purchased parts, computer time Indirect costs are necessary costs not associated with one specific project –Salaries, buildings, utilities, insurance, clerical assistance –Costs are allocated across projects

12. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Direct Versus Indirect Costs

13. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Recurring vs. Nonrecurring Recurring costs repeat as the project work continues –Cost of writing cost; laying bricks –Occur during project evaluation Nonrecurring costs happen only once during a project –Design development –Occur during project planning and closing

14. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Regular vs. Expedited Regular costs occur when progress can be made by normal work hours and purchasing agreements (the preferred cost) Expedited costs occur when the project must be conducted faster than normal –Overtime and extra charge apply

15. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Estimate vs. Contingency reserve Project estimates need to be aggressive Add a reserve to cover activities that run over aggressive estimates Estimate – “a quantified assessment of the likely amount… It should always include an indication of accuracy.” PMBOK® Guide Reserve – “a provision in the project management plan to mitigate cost and/or schedule risk. Often used with a modifier (e.g. management reserve, contingency reserve) to provide further detail on what types of risk are meant to be mitigated.”PMBOK® Guide

16. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Costs – Accrual vs. Cash Accounting Accrual – transactions are recorded in the time period the expense occurred Cash – records transactions when money is spent Cash accounting is more frequently used on projects

17. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Accuracy and timing of cost estimates When should cost estimates be developed? How accurate do cost estimates need to be? How will cost estimates be used?

18. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Accuracy and timing of cost estimates Costs in Project Initiation –Necessary for project charter approval –Estimates are only approximate Costs in Project Planning –Cost estimates are more precise Cost estimates should be documented The level of confidence in the cost estimate should be described

19. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Project Cost Estimate Comparisons

20. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Order of Magnitude Estimates Created when limited project detail is available Enough information for “go” or “no go” decision Ball park Conceptual Initial Level one

21. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Budget and Definitive Estimates More accurate cost estimates at each stage Rolling wave planning –Definitive estimate for the 1 st stage –Order of magnitude for the remainder Definitive Order of Magnitude Definitive Order of Magnitude

22. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Methods of estimating costs Analogous estimating Parametric estimating Bottom-up estimating

23. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Methods of estimating costs

24. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Analogous Estimating Consider a similar project as a cost estimating starting point Requires experience performing similar projects and actual cost of similar projects Knowledge of how the proposed project differs from the previous project Experience with methods used to perform the project Analogous estimating – “an estimating technique that uses parameters such as size, weight or complexity from a previous similar activity as the basis for estimating the same parameter or measure for a future activity.” PMBOK® Guide

25. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Parametric Estimating Involves finding more information regarding the project Parametric estimating – “an estimating technique that uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables to calculate project costs.” PMBOK® Guide

26. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Bottom-Up Estimating Most detailed – specifications need to be very clear Time consuming Most accurate form of estimating Ensure every item is included Bottom-up estimating – “a method of estimating a component of work. The work is decomposed into more detail. An estimate is prepared of what is needed to meet the requirements of each of the lower, more detailed pieces of work, and these estimates are then aggregated into a total quantity for the project.” PMBOK® Guide

27. Cost Estimating Method Comparison

28. Project Cost Estimating Issues

29. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Supporting Detail Describe the scope, method used to create the estimate, assumptions, constraints, and range of possible outcomes Version control is critical People from different backgrounds may make different assumptions Untrue assumptions cause more work or other problems

30. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Supporting detail - Assumptions Workers will be paid at the prevailing wage rate of $14 per hour Workers are already familiar in general with the technology being used on the project Workers will be paid for 40 hours per week whether there is always that much work for them or not Overtime will never be authorized The project schedule can be delayed if the only alternative is to pay overtime.

31. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Supporting detail - Constraints Only in-house workers will be used No extra space will be provided No extra budget will be allowed The current version of the XYZ software will be incorporated into the design. Constraints often dictate methods available for performing the work

32. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Causes of Variation Statisticians classify variation as coming from either normal or special causes Phone calls Instant messages In-person interruptions Lightning strikes

33. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Normal and Special Cause Variation

34. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Vendor Bid Analysis Use vendor bid analysis to determine whether the price is reasonable For competing bids, assume the lowest responsible offer is fair Prices may be determined in the market place Develop a “should cost estimate”

35. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Value Engineering Method of double-checking all of the chosen methods for accomplishing work and the features of the project deliverable A separate stage may be incorporated late in the project planning to ensure time is spent on value engineering Value engineering – “an approach used to optimize project life cycle costs, save time, increase profits, improve quality, expand market share, solve problems, and/or use resources more effectively.” PMBOK® Guide

36. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Types of Accounting Systems Functional based accounting systems used historically –Overhead (indirect) costs were assigned to a cost pool allocated to direct costs based on volume Contemporary approach –Indirect costs form a larger percentage of total costs –Allocation of indirect costs is more carefully considered Activity-based costing allocates indirect costs to fixed costs

37. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Activity-based Costing More involved methods for allocating indirect costs Yields more accurate cost information Cost Drivers: Number of units produced Number of batches run Number of product variations Amount of facility utilized

38. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Life Cycle Costing The total costs of creating and using the project during its useful life Consider disposition costs of the product after its useful life is complete

39. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Time Value of Money Discounting the value of future revenue and cost streams will enable better project decisions Discount future dollars by the appropriate factor The finance department may provide the appropriate rate The rate depends on the underlying inflation rate plus the cost of capital

40. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Determine Budget Aggregating costs Analyzing reserve needs Determining cash flow Determine budget – “the process of aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline.” PMBOK® Guide

41. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Aggregating Costs Direct and indirect costs add up to the cost baseline The cost baseline is an integral part of the project management plan The cost baseline can only be changed through a formal change management process Cost performance baseline – “a specific version of a time-phased budget used to compare actual expenditures to planned expenditures to determine if preventive or corrective action is needed to meet the project objectives.” PMBOK® Guide

42. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Aggregation of Project Budget

43. Analyzing Reserve Needs

44. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Analyzing Reserve Needs Known knowns are discovered during planning and can be estimated directly Known unknowns are discovered during risk identification Unknown unknowns (unk unks) are totally unexpected occurrences that cause an increase in cost and/or schedule –The money used to cover unk unks is called management reserve

45. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Analyzing Reserve Needs The amount placed into contingency reserve is calculated during risk analysis The amount placed into management reserve is determined by how much uncertainty management feels exists in the project The cost baseline, contingency reserve, and management reserve are used to determine if sufficient funds are available

46. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Determining Cash Flow Expenses are applied to individual activities in the schedule to see when cash is needed Cash may be supplied through organization budgets on a periodic basis The cumulative amount of cash coming in to the project must meet or exceed demands for cash payouts

47. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Project Cumulative Cash and Revenue

48. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Establishing Cost Control Approved project budget serves as a baseline for project control Milestones are used as a typical measuring point –Identified in the milestone schedule in the project charter –Identified in constructing the project schedule Use cash flow projections to determine how much funding is expected to reach each milestone Create enough milestones to keep track of progress without creating an administrative burden

49. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Using MS Project for Project Budgets MS Project supports bottom up and summary level cost modeling Bottom-up cost modeling is based on the cost of each resource assignment Summary level cost modeling consists of a summary level estimate for all effort represented by that level

50. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Develop Bottom-up Project Budget Assignment costs Activity costs Project total costs Various Perspectives

51. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Assignment Costs Required data –Assignment work hours –Resource Standard Rate –Resource Overtime Rate Assignment Cost = total number of assignment hours times the standard rate

52. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Activity Costs Sum of all assignment cost values plus any activity fixed cost

53. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Task Usage View with Resource Work Form 1.On the Task tab, View group, enter Task Usage. 2.On the View tab, Split View group, click Details. 3.On the View tab, Split View group, enter Task Form (if not already displayed.) 4.Right click in the form in the lower page and enter “Work.” 5.In the upper pane, expose the Start column and right click in the Start column header to add a column. Enter “Cost” when prompted.

54. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Various Perspectives Cost data may be viewed from a resource perspective using the Resource Usage view –Assignment costs are summarized at the resource level The “unassigned” set represents activities with no assigned resources. Resources with no show/hide control have no assignments

55. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Resource Usage View

56. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Develop Summary Project Budget Add a dummy activity under each phase summary not yet planned in detail Estimate the phase duration and the phase cost Put the duration estimate in the dummy activity’s duration field Put the cost estimate in the dummy activity’s Cost field Remove each dummy activity when detail is added

57. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Dummy Activity for Late Phase

58. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Summary The cost management plan lays out how you plan to structure and control project costs Cost estimating can be challenging because of activity variation Many methods are available to assist in cost estimating.

59. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Summary Cost budgeting includes aggregating individual costs, analyzing needs for cost reserves where uncertainty exists, and determining cash inflow and outflow. Establishing cost controls includes establishing cost reporting systems. MS Project can assist in developing either bottom-up project budgets or summary project budgets.

60. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Value of Budget Optimization At a major midwestern electric utility a three-year capital project portfolio is developed for implementation and budgeted. The budgeting process itself is conducted year- round in an endeavor to balance multiple competing objectives The utility adopted a project portfolio optimization process to create, analyze, refine the budget for the portfolio PM in Action Example

61. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Value of Budget Optimization The electric utility adopted a project portfolio optimization process A computer-based mathematical algorithm is used to optimize all possible spending portfolios to maximize value and minimize risk at specified budget levels PM in Action Example

62. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The Value of Budget Optimization Benefits Budget strategy well understood and communicated through the organization Budget optimized for strategic objectives Consistent organizational strategy ensured Risk thresholds and tolerance understood Planning horizon and purchasing power expanded Project dynamics accounted for PM in Action Example