1. Forestry Program Changing Patterns of Supply ― Illegal Logging Sten Nilsson IIASA Laxenburg, Austria Forest Governance and Trade: Exploring Options 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London, UK

2. Forestry Program Illegal Logging Total 350–650 million m 3 /year Illegal logging 20–40% of industrial wood production 350–650 million m 3 ? 1600 million m 3 Official global industrial wood production/year

3. Forestry Program Total Industrial Wood Fiber Consumption Source: Perez-Garcia, 2004. 1%

4. Forestry Program Industrial Global Wood Consumption in billion m 3 Current 2030 ~1.6~2.5 High ~2.0 Low

5. Forestry Program Energy Use of Total Wood Consumption Pan-Europe~65% North America~35%

6. Forestry Program Triangle of Problems/Solutions Economic Growth Energy SecurityClimate Change/ Environment

7. Forestry Program Biomass and Energy  Bioenergy: Electricity and Heat from Biomass  Liquid Biofuels for Transportation  Biogas  Hydrogen

8. Forestry Program Integrated Biorefinery Approach Source: Girard and Fallot (2006)

9. Forestry Program Value Added Production in Biorefinery Pulp/Paper Value Added Source: Hildingsson (2006)

10. Forestry Program Competitiveness of Biofuels Agriculture-based ethanol~70$/bbl Brazilian ethanol~50$/bbl (including fuel economy penalty) First generation biodieselHardly competitive Second generation (post 2010) biomass-to-liquid from forest biomass ~50$bbl Second generation (post 2010) lingo-ethanol ~50$/bbl

11. Forestry Program GHG Reduction Cost Expectations for 1 st and 2 nd Generation Biofuels Source: Adapted from WWI/GTZ (2006) Lower limitUpper limit

12. Forestry Program Wood Balance for Pan-Europe (million m 3 ) 2030 Basic demand expressed as annual fellings (EFSOS/UN, 2005) 680 Sustainable fellings (EFSOS/UN, 2005)630–660 Basic demand and EU targets1180

13. Forestry Program Internationalization of Bioenergy Trade Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)

14. Forestry Program Shifting of Land-use Frontiers Source: Fallot et al. (2006)

15. Forestry Program Paper and Paperboard Development in China Ningbo Xiaogang PM1World’s largest machine for white- lined chipboard Shandong Chenming PM4The world’s largest newsprint machine. China has the 3 fastest newsprint machines in the world APP/Gold Hong YeThe world’s 2 nd fastest tissue machine Shandong BohuiThe world’s largest folding boxboard machine APP China Gold East at DagangHas set 6 world speed records for paper machines APP Gold East in JiangsuBuilding the world’s largest printing and writing machine Source: after Flynn (2006)

16. Forestry Program Wood Supply ― Pan-Europe 20302040 –50million m 3 /year

17. Forestry Program Highway Conditions between Moscow and Novosibirsk, 2006

18. Forestry Program Opportunities: Changes in Russia Disproportion of Harvesting Volumes and Timber Processing Capacities Source: Federal Russian Forestry Agency

19. Forestry Program Proposed Export Taxes on Roundwood in Russia 2006, April: Coniferous roundwood 6.5% of export value or minimum 4€/m 3 2007, 1 July:10% of export value, minimum 6–9€/m 3 2008, 1 July:12–13.5% of export value, minimum 12–14 €/m 3 2009, 1 July:15–17% of export value, minimum 18–19 €/m 3 2010, 1 July:20% of export value, minimum 24 €/m 3 and change of custom declaration fee, currently 0.28 €/m 3 ―future (no date given) 6 €/m 3 Source: Palenova (2006)

20. Forestry Program China’s Industrial Roundwood Removal Official forecasts  Natural forest = 195 million m 3  Plantation (fast growing) = 133 million m 3  Total industrial roundwood removal = 328 million m 3 328 Sources: Zhou, 2001; Bull and Nilsson, 2004

21. Forestry Program Current Situation by Country Malaysia Harvest of logs 1990: 40 million m 3 ; 2005: 20 million m 3. About 15 million m 3 of industrial wood consumed of unknown origin Indonesia “Legal harvest” 20–25 million m 3 ; Illegal harvest 30–35 million m 3 ; approaching the end of timber mining possibilities Thailand Natural forests: 20,000 m 3. Plantations about 8 million m 3 Laos Official harvest: 1 million m 3 /year; real: 2–3 million m 3 Cambodia 4–5 million m 3 /year―most of it illegal Myanmar 5.5 million m 3 /year. Remaining harvest in supply regions for China: 15 years PNG Harvest in 1994: 2.7 million m 3 ; 2004: 1.8 million m 3 (Remaining mature natural forest harvest at current rate: 15–20 years) Vietnam ~4.5 million m 3 /year of which about 1.5 is illegal

22. Forestry Program Latin America: Total Wood Balance Source: Personal communication, Serrano (2006). million m 3 Possible sustainable wood supply Wood utilization 550 620 690 705 20032020

23. Forestry Program Assessed Roundwood Consumption and Harvest in the USA Source: After Persson (2006) Million M 3 RWE Consumption US Production

24. Forestry Program Plantation Rates AustraliaIn 2000: 137500 ha/year; in 2003: 43200 ha/year; in 2005: cap on plantations New ZealandIn 1995: 100000 ha/year; in 2004: 14900 ha/year IndonesiaIn 1997: 230000 ha/year; in 2004: 78000 ha/year PhilippinesHardly any plantations since 1997 ThailandPlantation boom 1986–1997; now faded away CambodiaBetween 1985–2002: Total 11000 ha PNGBetween 1996–2004: Total 2300 ha IndiaDecreasing plantation rate South AfricaPlantation boom over ChilePlantation boom over USADecreasing plantation rate JapanIn 1970: 35000 ha/year; 1990 hardly anything

25. Forestry Program Softwood Plantations Source: Global Wood Products and Market Trend, Taylor (2005). CAGR % Area Growth in Softwood Plantation Forest Slowing Down; Limiting Future Supply of Softwood Fiber  Round the corner ― land reforms?

26. Forestry Program The Way Forward  “ Good Society” ― minimum standards of living, education, security, health care, etc.  Combined strategies for economic growth, malnutrition, poverty and agriculture development  Countries with GDP higher than $4600/capita increased growing stock and forest area during 1990–2005  Economic growth foreseen by the World Bank means that countries like China, Mexico and Turkey will have average loving standard comparable with Spain today  Stimulate this development