1. 1 1 Theater Security Cooperation ( TSC) Planning (TSCP) (excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005) Nazli Choucri 1, Stuart E. Madnick 2, Michael D. Siegel 3 1 Political Science Department 2 Sloan School of Management & School of Engineering 3 Sloan School of Management {nchoucri, smadnick, msiegel} @ mit.edu

2. 2 2 What is TSC*? Those activities Combatant Commanders conduct with foreign allies and friends to: – Build defense relationships that promote specific US strategic interests – Develop allied and friendly capabilities for self-defense and coalition operations, including allied transformation – Improve information exchange and intelligence sharing to help harmonize views on security challenges – Provide US forces with peacetime and contingency access and en route infrastructure * Theater Security Cooperation Source: OSD Security Cooperation Guidance Coordination Draft, July 26, 2004 UNCLASSIFIED

3. 3 3 Possible uses of System Dynamics in TSC Dynamics of the TSC planning process Build defense relationships to improve interoperability to improve – Learning, building trust, working together Develop allied and friendly capabilities by improving their allocation of resources for – Training troops – Assignment of officers – Intelligence gathering Combine dynamics and political stability to assist planning (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE) 3

4. 4 4 TSCP Dynamics - Causal Diagram 4

5. 5 5 Dynamic & Interdependent Behavior of Planning Activities Planning BPlanning XPlanning A 5

6. 6 6 Value of Studying the Dynamics of the TSCP Planning Process - Examples “ Software project dynamics: an integrated approach” – Tarek Abdel-Hamid & Stuart Madnick – Complexity and Tradeoffs in Planning Large-Scale Software Projects, especially government systems “Strategic management of complex projects: a case study using system dynamics” - James M. Lyneis - Case study of the Peace Shield Air Defense System “Modeling intergovernmental cooperation: A system dynamics approach” - Laura Black - Model of collaboration, trust building, and knowledge sharing in a complex, intergovernmental information system project. 6

7. 7 7 Build defense relationships to improve interoperability Joint exercises are an important tool for - Building defense relations - Improving interoperability 7

8. 8 8 But much more is going on … 8

9. 9 9 Develop Allied and Friendly Capabilities Better understanding of implications of allocation of resources for – Training activities – Military Leadership – Intelligence sharing 9

10. 10 Officer Allocation Policy Allocation policy has resulted in unequal distribution of officer talent between North and South. Officer talent in the South can affect the mix of anti-insurgency activities. Short-term solutions respond to violence and insurgency. Long-term solutions build trust with local communities (example: Marine Corps Combined Action Program). 10

11. 11 Officer Quality Policy 11

12. 12 Officer Allocation Policy Officer allocation can skew mix toward short-term solutions at the expense of a long-term optimal mix. Trust and relations suffer, so violence is more likely. Despite continued increases in troops, frequency of violence chronically increases. “Unintended consequences” of the allocation policy exacerbate the problem. 12

13. 13 Disaggregating TSCP Activities: Combine dynamics and political stability (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE) 13

14. 14 Disaggregating TSCP Activities - “Zoom in” example 14