1. Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108 usaspm@labor.state.ny.us NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics.

2. Labor Market Resources and Overview of Orange/Ulster Economic Developments Current Population, population projections Per capita and median household income: Orange, Ulster and Hudson Valley Region. Educational attainment Labor market/Job Growth Trends Commuting patterns Resources for Career Exploration and Planning Useful Labor Market websites

3. Orange County Population Trends At a rate of close to 6.4 percent, Orange County has been the fastest growing county in New York State since 2000, gaining 22,000 new residents. At a rate of 1.9 percent, Ulster County has gained +3,362 new residents since 2000. Its growth rate ranked fifth among Hudson Valley counties. All counties in the region have experienced population growth rates higher than the state’s of 1.1 percent since 2000.

4. Population projections by age: 2000 – 2020 Percent change by county and New York StateCounty 0 – 19 20 – 24 25 – 44 45 – 64 65+ Dutchess - 1.7% +21.6% +21.6%-4.6%+14%+50.7% Orange+10.6+38.5+6.4+20.8+53.3 Sullivan+12.2+29.3+3.3+16.4+40.3 Ulster+9.3+22.7+6.5+14.6+40.1 New York State -3.4+9.8-8.4+17.5+30.4 Source: Cornell University, New York State Statistical Information System, Projection data by county.

5. Population Projected to grow strongly through 2020 Both Orange and Ulster Counties are projected to experience strong population growth among residents 19 and under. …And in a reversal of the 1990 – 2000 trend, both counties – as well as the region - are expected to make strong gains among the younger worker age groups that declined sharply through 2000: 20 to 24 year olds and 25 to 44 year olds Both counties, as well as the entire region will also see tremendous expansion among older workers- those aged 45 and over.

6. Projections conclusions Population aged 20 –24 begins to increase – aging of 0 – 17 population of 2000. The post Baby Boom generation (those born after 1964 slows somewhat. (25 to 44 year olds). The Baby Boom generation, now aged 45 – 64 increases significantly. The older population, those over 65 years, also expands significantly. Potential work force will be both young (20 – 24) and older – aged 45+

7. Income Demographics: Per capita income 2001 State rank Orange County $28,081 20 Ulster County$26,02323 Hudson Valley$42,385 New York State$35,626 The region’s per capita income outranked that of NYS in 2001.

8. Median Household Income: Hudson Valley Counties & New York State 2003 1 Orange:$57,791 Dutchess:$84,465 Ulster: 2 $42,551 New York State: $46,195 1.Source: American Community Survey, New York State and counties 2.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (data for 2003 not available)

9. Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, Orange County: 1990 - 2000

10. Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Ulster County, 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000

11. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older High school graduate or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

12. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Associate degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

13. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Bachelor’s degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 In all counties, rates of educational attainment have risen since 1990.

14. The population of the counties and the region is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. It is also becoming more educated. The region’s workforce will also become increasingly diverse and encompass more of both younger and older workers over the next 20 years. Conclusions

15. Dutchess-Orange and Ulster County Job Growth Trends The Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA gained 3,700 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 1.9 percent. Job growth was strong across many industries, especially trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade and transportation, warehousing & utilities in particular) educational & health services and leisure & hospitality. Ulster County – now known as the Kingston MSA - gained 1,200 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 2.5 percent over the year. Industries with the strongest job gains included trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade especially) information and leisure & hospitality. Both areas outpaced the State’s private sector job growth of 1.2 percent over the same twelve-month period.

17. 2000 Commutation Patterns Ulster County County Residents At Work2000 % of Total Persons Working in County2000 % of Total Total County Residents at Work81,726100.0%Total Persons Working in the County64,729100.0% Worked in New York State80,54298.6%Lived in New York State64,39399.5% Worked in County54,37366.5%Lived in County54,37384.0% Worked outside County26,16932.0%Lived Outside County10,02015.5% Dutchess10,68513.1%Dutchess3,4305.3% Orange8,67610.6%Orange1,9953.1% New York1,5651.9%Sullivan1,1081.7% Westchester1,1571.4%Greene1,0831.7% Sullivan7290.9%Delaware4390.7% Rockland5790.7%Columbia4370.7% Greene5740.7%Albany3040.5% Albany5040.6%Westchester2370.4% Columbia3930.5%Queens1230.2% Putnam2130.3%Rockland890.1% Other1,0941.3%Other7751.2% Worked outside of New York State1,1841.4%Lived outside of New York State3360.5% Total outcommutation27,35333.5%Total incommutation10,35616.0% (county residents working outside county) (county nonresidents working in county) Net Outcommutation: 16,997

18. Conclusions: More than two-thirds of Orange County residents work in the County. 12.4 percent worked in Dutchess and 6.3 in Manhattan. In Ulster County, approximately two-thirds of residents also worked within the county, with most of the rest - almost 24 percent working in neighboring Orange and Dutchess counties.

19. DUTCHESS COUNTY INDUSTRIES WITH THE LARGEST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: 2001 - 2004 2004 20012001 - 20042004 March Change Avg. Annual NAICSIndustry Description Firms Emp in emp Wages 334Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing** 25 13,307 8,1115,196 96,386 611Educational Services 104 6,692 5,1391,553 29,778 722Food Services and Drinking Places 509 6,395 5,415980 12,578 611Educational Services (public) 102 10,088 9,358730 31,204 561Administrative and Support Services 350 4,783 4,184599 25,188 624Social Assistance 172 2,876 2,343533 17,789 623Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 97 4,776 4,245531 25,930 236Construction of Buildings 341 1,565 1,296269 39,979 813Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations 181 1,314 1,064250 20,176 622Hospitals 5 3,670 3,425245 35,936 443Electronics and Appliance Stores 37 657 462195 29,071 713Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 71 1,127 936191 12,353 441Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 86 1,647 1,472175 40,547 425Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents 56 261 89172 47,664 454Nonstore Retailers 50 632 529103 39,864 621Ambulatory Health Care Services 510 5,259 5,158101 39,292 424Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 88 621 52596 33,694 485Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) 6 508 41494 25,496

20. Orange County Largest Growth Industries: 2001 - 2004 2004 20012001 - 20042004 Avg. NAICSIndustry Description Firms March Emp Empl changeAnn. Pay 621Ambulatory Health Care Services 603 5,569 4,5671,00239,638 722Food Services and Drinking Places 627 6,886 6,13475212,759 624Social Assistance 176 3,450 2,80364717,309 561Administrative and Support Services 354 3,872 3,30257020,893 928National Security and International Affairs (public) 4 1,412 87353945,283 425Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents 112 870 35251845,676 541Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 764 4,580 4,11446638,458 453Miscellaneous Store Retailers 129 1,779 1,33644321,103 444Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies 111 2,032 1,62340929,715 452General Merchandise Stores 44 3,336 3,05128517,622 441Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 127 2,211 1,94027138,588 622Hospitals 6 4,772 4,52824431,330 711Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Activities 40 348 11823023,416 812Personal and Laundry Services 241 1,390 1,19819217,180 622Hospitals (public) 4 1,254 1,07318165,202 485Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) 6 627 44718024,080 485Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 49 1,459 1,28217722,109 448Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 214 2,522 2,36815418,483 921Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 46 5,387 5,26012736,113 532Rental and Leasing Services 64 592 47012229,241 713Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 83 1,010 88912113,216 524Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 254 2,318 2,20711139,593

21. ULSTER COUNTY LARGEST GROWTH INDUSTRIES: 2001 - 2004 200420012001 - 20042004 March ChangeAvg. Annual NAICSDescription Units Emp in emp.Wages 722Food Services and Drinking Places 393 3,965 3,594371 11,386 611Educational Services (public) 42 7,727 7,434293 26,166 621Ambulatory Health Care Services 273 2,855 2,566289 33,239 813Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations 114 930 707223 17,216 541Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 406 1,733 1,547186 28,365 921Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 29 3,405 3,229176 33,505 441Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 95 1,144 975169 34,994 522Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 78 1,054 896158 47,206 491Postal Service 35 420 263157 45,586 451Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 50 558 411147 16,266 531Real Estate 147 435 326109 26,711 112Animal Production 9 164 63101 26,386 311Food Manufacturing 26 454 37876 31,086 321Wood Product Manufacturing 10 262 19369 32,922 237Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 25 170 10268 47,876 238Specialty Trade Contractors 361 1,479 1,41465 31,415

22. The largest growth industries over the last few years are heavily concentrated within: Health services Educational services Administrative & support services Leisure & hospitality Construction Professional & technical services Conclusions

23. The largest employing industries within the county’s biggest and fastest growing industries provides a good indicator of occupations most in demand. In most cases, these occupations range from entry-level jobs requiring little training and education to high-level professional, technical and managerial occupations requiring a two-to four-year college degree and beyond. This also provides a useful guide to possible career ladders in the industry.

24. Health Services Occupational Trends: Why is demand for workers expanding so rapidly? The Health Services Industry has been one of the Hudson Valley Region’s and Orange County’s fastest growth industries and one of its largest employers. Over the past year, the Poughkeepsie-Middletown-Newburgh area gained + 900 new jobs in health care & social assistance. The 7-county region overall gained + 2,700 new jobs in this area. Many occupations in the field are projected to continuing adding jobs through 2012. This points to positive job prospects for those training for professions in the field.

25. Demand for workers in health services professions overall are projected to grow by more than 22 percent through 2010. The largest gainers are expected to be Registered nurses Physical therapists Pharmacists Pharmacy technicians Health technologists and technicians ( including medical & clinical lab technicians; cardiovascular technicians; sonographers; surgical technologists). Licensed practical nurses Medical records & health information technicians

26. WHY will demand grow in many health related occupations? The aging of the population, both regionally and nationally means increased demand for health services and an expansion of employment in the field overall. Increased retirements among those in the baby- boom generation will mean increased need to replace workers.

27. Aging: In Orange, Ulster and the region as a whole, the fastest growing portion of the population is in that aged 45 and over. Replacement: A look at the occupational projections for 2002 – 2012 suggests that hiring due to ‘replacement need’ will constitute a large portion of new openings over the next several years.

28. Among the top twenty occupations with favorable employment prospects through 2010, approximately half are in health and technology-related occupations.

30. Occupational wages http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/oeswage.html Occupational projections http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html Current employment by industry: all areas http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html Unemployment rates & labor force http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/laus.html Population and income – historical data for region & counties http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/population.html CareerZone – Career Exploration Resource/skill/training requirements for hundreds of occupations http://www.nycareerzone.org / Links to Hudson Valley Labor Market Information

31. Links, continued Business Directory: locate employers by occupation/location http://www.labor.state.ny.us/working_ny/finding_a_job/diremp/search.asp Downloadable Job Search Program – WDSuite http://www.workforcenewyork.org/wdsuite/ Business Expansions & Contractions Report http://www.workforcenewyork.org/hudsonvalleylmi /

32. Get detailed information on skill and training requirements for hundreds of occupations at www.nycareerzone.org