1. The future of refrigerants
Jim Wolf
Global Policy Associates
May 2015

2. Overview Current and future environmental policy
Refrigerant comparisons
Future refrigerants
Today, we will start by focusing on policy development within the Montreal Protocol, with focus on ozone depletion abatement, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which of course focuses on climate change abatement. In addition, we will discuss various national plans being created in response to global climate change.
Once we see that there are pressures on all refrigerants, we’ll review those available today from a balanced approach to the environment.
This information provide insights into the criteria future refrigerants will need to address, as provides an environmentally-balanced approach for consideration of today’s refrigerants and their applications in the marketplace.

3. Montreal Protocol OZONE-DEPLETING substances .”
Adopted in Montreal on September 16, 1987
Objective “To control and eventually eliminate …
OZONE-DEPLETING substances .”
Among 6 major chemicals, CFC and HCFC refrigerants
were classified as an Ozone Depleting substances, and subject to phase outs.

4. Kyoto Protocol December 1997, Kyoto Japan, Conference of Parties
Kyoto Protocol focus is on Global Warming.
Among 6 major chemicals, HFC refrigerants
were classified as Global Warming, or Greenhouse Gases,
and subject to restrictions.
The most important of these meetings occurred in December, 1997 in Kyoto Japan - Conference of the Parties Three, or COP-3. This slide highlights the key elements of this meeting. (More details can be found in CFC-Article-1.) Allow the audience to read these highlights and underscore the major points.
7% reduction from 1990 emission levels in the U.S. by the years 2008 to 2012.
There are six gases included in the basket, including importantly for our industry, HFC’s.
To date there are over 80 countries that have signed the Kyoto Protocol. While this is a highly controversial issue, we believe it will fundamentally help to change, affect and ultimately shape the future for all industries around the world.

5. Efficiency Drives Environmental Impact
What’s more, is the chemical's efficiency, as this has an INDIRECT effect on the GWP of the chemical. That is to say, the less efficient the chemical, or the equipment that can be manufactured as a result of the chemical properties, will have a LIFETIME of CO2 impact by the coal that is needed to be mined, transported, and burned.

6. Important Environmental Policy
Montreal Protocol (UNEP)
Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC)
Country Policies and Regulations

7. Montreal Protocol: HCFC Phase out Dates

8. US EPA Accelerated Phase-out Rule (Unchanged)
CFCs
All CFCs 0 % (Production)
HCFCs
Cap at 2.8% (3.1%) of 1989
Consumption of CFCs plus HCFCs
HCFC-141b 0 % (Production)
HCFC-142b (No New Product Use)
HCFC (No New Product Use)
HCFC % (Production)
HCFC-142b 0 % (Production)
HCFC-123 (No New Product Use)
HCFC-124 (No New Product Use)
All HCFCs 0 % (Production)

9. Expected new HCFC demand1
ODP Weighted U.S. HCFC Use and HCFC Cap 15
HCFC Production Cap
Actual HCFC usage
Actual R-123 usage
65% 10
Million Kilograms CFC-11 Equivalent
35%
Sep07 MP
Change 5
Here’s an graphic depiction of the HCFC reduction schedule set by the Montreal Protocol and implemented by the U.S. EPA.
In 2004, developed countries such as the U.S., must reduce Kg/ODP by 35 percent. This doesn’t mean that U.S. industry can produce 65 percent of the amount of R-123 that it did in This means that the U.S. must decrease production of enough HCFCs to realize a 35 percent reduction in Kg/ODP.
By eliminating R-141b, which was only used in the foam blowing industry and is highly emissive, the U.S. met its target of reducing HCFCs by more than 35 percent.
This is the same thing in 2010 when another 35 percent needs to be reduced. We can achieve that by reducing R-22.
In 2015, the U.S. is not implementing any additional reductions because the Kg/ODP reduction in 2004 and 2010 will more than meet the additional 10 percent reduction requirement.
It’s also important to be very clear, that the Montreal Protocol doesn’t limit the amount of R-123 that can be produced between now and Also, there is no phase out for the use of recycled and recovered R-123. It can be used and resold forever, including recycled and recovered R-123 from other countries.
25%
Expected new HCFC demand1
10%
0.5%
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1http://epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/ServicingNeedsRevisedDraftReport_September.2006.pdf

10. Almost 50 times the needed volume can be produced!
Will There Be Enough R123
% of 1989 level of “equivalent” R-11
Assumptions: Chillers in US with R-123 (50,000 chillers)
Average chiller size: 500 tons
Refrigerant charge: 2 lbs/ton (1.7)
Average charge/chiller: 1000 lbs
0.5% leakage rate/yr
(50,000 chillers) x (1000 lbs/chiller) x (0.5% leakage rate/year) = 250,000 lbs/yr
0.5% cap from 1989 levels equates to 12,100,000 lbs/year of R-123
Almost 50 times the needed volume can be produced!

11. Will R-123 continue to be manufactured ?
R-123 is used as a feedstock to produce R-125
R-125 is 50% of the blend that makes R-410A ( replacement for R-22)
R-125 is 25% of the blend that makes R-407C
This slide shows the specifics associated with continued R-123 capacity available for feedstock applications. Since R-123 is not emitted in this process, and goes through a chemical change resulting in a non-ODS, this application is not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
So that you don’t think this is only a theoretical example, Trane’s procures R-123 refrigerant for centrifugal chillers produced in China from Blue Sky, and Chinese refrigerant producer. The majority of Blue Sky’s R-123 capacity is used for R-125 feedstock production, so refinement of R-123 for refrigerant usage is a good leverage on their production investments.

12. Climate change policy Kyoto Protocol created in 1997
European Union CO2 cap & trade program, and HFC regulation enacted in 2005
Activity in 2015
Climate Change negotiations for 2015 agreement
Cap & trade programs/legislation
Montreal Protocol proposals on HFC phase down
EU regulation on HFCs
U.S. HFC regulation
Canadian regulation consultation

13. U.S. Senate Climate Change Legislation
S – Lieberman – Warner bill (Cap and Trade Program)
Caps greenhouse gas emissions
Reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gas coverage
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Sulfur hexafluoride
Perfluorocarbons
Hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs (Separate basket)
- Cap set in 2012
70% reduction by 2037
This bill has passed the Senate Environment & Public Works committee, and is expected to reach the senate floor for debate sometime in April to June.
This bill is not expected to become law this year, although it is always possible.
Shaping of the bill will continue.
Some type of greenhouse gas control law is expected to become law within the next 2-3 years. Cap & Trade is the most popular form of control within congress today.

14. HFC Cap vs Business as Usual Demand
Low-GWP solutions needed
Cap is based on Title X of Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act
Business as usual demand based on US EPA Vintaging Model
Shortage seen immediately upon implementation requires:
Responsible use improvements
Transition from HFCs to out-of-kind solutions
Transition from current high-GWP HFCs to safe, efficient, low-GWP solutions are desired
Low-GWP solutions are not available on the market today
Trane supports preservation of current high-GWP HFCs until safe, efficient alternatives are available. Currently available low-GWP alternatives such as CO2 bring significant issues:
Very low efficiency for CO2 at stationary AC conditions
Safety issues with hydrocarbons, ammonia
Price signal (increase) is driven by auction:
In 2010, the baseline is reduced by 5% with the reduction available to allocation holders via auction.
Auction amount is increased until it reaches 100% in 2031.
Price increase based on GWP & volume demand

15. H.R. – 2454, Waxman – Markey legislation
- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006 consumption of HFCs - Phase down of production of HFCs: % reduction in % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by Passed House (6/26/09) and sent to Senate

16. Kerry - Lieberman legislation (American Power Act)
- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006 consumption of HFCs - Phase down of production of HFCs: % reduction in % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by % reduction by Introduced May 11, 2010

17. HFC PHASE DOWN PROPOSAL
Submitted in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015
Proposal by Canada, U.S., and Mexico to transfer HFC controls to Montreal Protocol
Baseline of average of 2011 – 2013 consumption and production of HFCs + 50% of HCFCs
Phase down of production/consumption of HFCs in Developed Countries:
- 10% by 2019 ; 35% by 2024; 70% by 2030; % by 2036
Proposals submitted by Micronesia from 2010 –2015
New proposals submitted by India and EU in 2015
. Amendment proposals to be considered 12/2015

18. Amendment Proposals to Montreal Protocol
U.S., Canada, & Mexico:
Phasedown: 2019 – 90%, 2024 – 65%, 2030 – 30%; 2036 – 15%
. EU:
Phasedown: 2019 – 85%, 2023 – 60%, 2028 – 30%; 2034 – 15%
. India:
Phasedown: 2018 – 90%, %, 2029 – 30%; 2035 – 15%
. Micronesia:
Phasedown: 2017 – 85%, 2021 – 65%, 2025 – 45%, 2029 – 25%; 2033 – 10%

19. HFC PHASEOUT LAWS Switzerland Denmark Austria
Air conditioners HFC ban
Denmark
GENERAL HFC ban
Cooling plants, heat pumps & air conditioning Plant HFC ban
Austria
Air conditioning and Mobile refrigeration HFC ban 2008
This chart shows the specific gases to be covered and regulated under the Kyoto Protocol.
Note that even though CFCs and HCFCs are Global Warming Gases, they are not covered under this protocol due to their separate coverage already under the Montreal Protocol.
Likewise, HFCs which have no ozone depletion are not covered under the Montreal Protocol, but because they do have Global Warming Potential, they are covered here in the Kyoto Protcol.
Also, the reduction percentages are not gas specific but are combined. So, for example, greater savings in CO2 can be credited to allow growth in HFC’s, as long as the combined emissions are reduced overall.
The Base periods shown are the dates which will be used to determine compliance with the reduction levels agreed to in the treaty. Primarily it will be 1990, except that HFCs will likely use 1995 since not many HFCs were yet in use in 1990.

20. European Union - HFC Regulations
Stationary air conditioning & refrigeration - (2005)
- Containment and recovery of HFCs
- Training and Certification of technicians
Automobile HFC-134a Ban – (2005)
- No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 2011
- No servicing in 2019
EU Regulation on HFCs

21. EU Regulation on HFCs – Adopted April 2014
Phase down schedule for HFCs from baseline of the average from 2008 to 2011: Years Quantity Allowed %

22. 1st. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List
NRDC, IGSD, and EIA
Petition filed with EPA Administrator - May 7, 2010
Primary request for removal of HFC-134a for auto
Secondary request for removal of HFC-134a for aerosols, fire suppression, foam blowing agents, refrigeration, and air conditioning sector
Regulation proposed to de-list HFC-134a use in autos (2022) and insulation (2017)

23. 2nd. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List
IEA petitioned EPA on April 26, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for any ODS in non-essential uses
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for every end- use where more benign alternatives are available
NRDC petitioned EPA on April 27, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a for household and retail food refrigerators & freezers
3rd. Petition expected to remove HFC-134a from chillers

24. CAFE Standard for cars and light trucks
National Highway Traffic Safety – DOT
Final rule published May 7, 2010
Requires average 34.1 mpg by 2016
Provides 6 mpg credit for use of non-HFC (134a) air conditioning system

25. Federal Acquisition Regulation – Proposed Rule – 5/11/15
Affects DOD, GSA, and NASA purchases
Adds restriction on procurement of products containing high GWPs
Requires agencies to procure, when feasible, alternatives to high GWP HFCs (R-134a, R-410a, R-407C) and to non-ODP refrigerants used in air conditioners.
Limits purchase of equipment containing HFCs and/or HCFCs

26. Environment Canada – Consultation Meetings
Consultation meetings – March 2015
Residential air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.
Commercial and Industrial air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.

27. Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development
Conference concluded on June 22, 2012
Agreement document – “The Future We Want”
HFC provision:
“We support a gradual phase-down in the consumption and production of HFCs.”

28. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
Announced February 16, 2012
Covers black carbon, methane & HFCs
Voluntary effort to reduce climate pollutants
43 countries: Bangladesh, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominion Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Japan, Maldives, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Republic of Korea, Sweden, United States, EU (27 countries), plus World Bank and UNEP

29. Relative COPs:
R-123 = 7.435
R-22 = 6.984
R-134a = 6.937
R-410a = 6.56
Propane = 6.834
Ammonia = 7.261
C02 = 3.4

30. Ozone Depletion Potential & Global Warming - Balancing ODP vs GWP
Future of Refrigerant Discussion – Speaker Notes
Ozone Depletion Potential & Global Warming - Balancing ODP vs GWP
CFC-11 12
113
114
HCFC-22
123
141b
142b
HFC-32
125
134a
143a
152a
227ea
236fa
245fa
404A
R-123 Discussion (Slide 3): ODP versus GWP
The next slide allows a quick walk through of the focus and information that lead to decisions we live with today.
Background on the Graph: Common refrigerants (those that were evaluated during the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols) are shown on the Y axis. The X axis has two scales. To the left of center is ODP, with CFC-11 used as unity, i.e., given the value of one. To the right of center is GWP, with CO2 as the base, with a value of one. Note, the chart is further broken down with the top third representing CFCs, the middle third representing HCFCs, and the bottom third representing HFCs. Look at the top third and ask yourself this question, “Why are the world regulators trying to get owners out of CFCs as soon as possible?” The answer is, “they are bad actors on both the ozone depletion and global warming fronts”. Now look at the HCFCs and HFCs. The beauty of the slide is that it can be used to tell the past, present and, very likely the future of the refrigerant issue. (use jump offs at the top of the chart allow you to look at this graph in respect to either the Montreal or Kyoto Protocol)
Looking at both sides, the decision can be offered to the audience on what is the most “balanced” refrigerant to be used. HFC32 and HFC152a become obvious choices, but as seen, they are slightly flammable and lacking other particular properties that HVAC equipment manufacturers desire. Once those are removed, R-123 surfaces to the top as the next best selection.
Now, using the same scale, we can place today’s refrigerants on the same scale and do the same evaluation. It can be seen that some of the most pursued refrigerants of today (R-407C and R-410A) have elevated GWP, and as such are becoming under tight scrutiny about lacking a balanced approach.
407C
410A
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
ODP (relative to R-11)
GWP (relative to CO2)
J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments). © JMC 2001
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE

31. Natural Refrigerant Considerations
CO2 Low Temp/Refrigeration/Automotive
Very low efficiency in HVAC applications
CO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410A
Hydrocarbons Stationary Air Conditioning
Safety issues on application, service, recovery
Ammonia Low Temp/Process Chiller Applications
Limited opportunities for safe applications
Safety and environmental issues, service, recovery
Water Stationary Air Conditioning
Low efficiency in normal HVAC applications

32. Options For HVAC Refrigerants
Fluorocarbons
“Natural” Refrigerants
Ozone Depleters
(Montreal Protocol)
Non- Ozone Depleters
(Kyoto Protocol)
Class 1
High ODP
CFC’s
Class 2
Low ODP
HCFC’s
Higher GWP
Lower GWP
R-134a
R-410A
R-407C
R-32
R-152a
Propane
Butane
CO2
Ammonia
Water
R-11
R-12
R113
R-500
R-22
R-123
GWP
GWP
ODP
GWP
ODP
GWP
GWP
ODP
ODP
GWP
GWP
ODP
GWP
ODP
-ODP Concerns
-GWP Concerns
- Flammable
ODP
-Toxicity Concerns
-Efficiency Concerns
-Cost Concerns
GWP

33. How is the industry responding?
Refrigerant producers are developing new refrigerants:
Near zero ODP, very low GWP, energy efficient & safe
Commercial availability began in 2015
Equipment manufacturers are analyzing new refrigerants:
Energy efficient, safe & low emissions
Equipment availability by

34. Projected Replacements
High Pressure (R-22/R-410a)
R (GWP=685/716)
2L flammable
R-32 blends (GWP= 400/600)
L flammable
Medium Pressure (R-134a)
R-1234yf (GWP<10) - Automobile
Expensive, significant efficiency loss
R-1234ze (GWP<10) - Chillers
Moderate price
Blends (GWP= 500/650) – non flammable
Low Pressure (R-123)
, R-1233 zd(E) (GWP<10) - Chillers
. Moderate price
. Non-flammable
Blends (GWP= 170/200) – non flammable /
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE

35. Refrigerant Safety Classifications ASHRAE 34 & Proposed ISO 817
Flammability
Class 1, non-flammable most refrigerants used today, like R-22, R-134a, R123, 410a, 407C
Class 2L, new class slightly flammable refrigerants <10 cm/sec burning velocity, most new HFO’s, R32
Class 2, more flammable, R152
Class 3, explosive, like propane
As identified on the previous page, flammability safety is a big concern. In this regard, various safety standards have been working on how to address the flammability concerns.
As most are likely familiar with are the 3 classes of flammability for ASHRAE standard 34. Class 1 non-flammable, class 2 and 3 increasing flammable
In the past, all the new refrigerants maintain non-flammability and fit well into this classification system.
Some HFC’s like R32, R143a are flammable by this classification system and were ignored as potential candidates during the ODP transition since they could be blended with non-flammable refrigerant to obtain the safety required. In the last transition, R32 gained a lot of attention around it’s unique flammability properties, and a new classification system was developed to potential handle these “slightly flammable refrigerants” As identified earlier new refrigerants like R1234yf and R1234ze were also 2L flammable. These refrigerants are easy to ignite and sustain a flame, but more research is needed into the hazards of combustion of these materials.
2L class key to use of low GWP HFOs

36. OLD 1st. Generation 2nd. Generation
CFC HCFC R-1233zd(E)
Blends
CFC HFC-134a R-1234yf (auto)
R- 1234ze (chiller)
Blends (chiller)
HCFC HFC- 410a HFC or Blends
HFC – 407C HFC – 32 or Blends

37. The Future of HCFCs and HFCs:
R-22, R-123, R-134a, R-410a, and 407C will be available for servicing existing equipment
Cost of current refrigerants will increase
Carbon tax factor: R-22 (1800) vs. R-410a (2000); R-123 (77) vs. R-134a (1430)
New refrigerants will cost 4 to 10 times more than HFCs 25