2.  Integration with other models  Evaluate simultaneous (and inter-related) policy changes  Linkage to I/O models  Motivating the analysis  Key question and client needs  Political sensitivity  Important innovations  Data requirements  Time consuming and difficult  Examples  Yolo Bypass  Water Markets  Other recent applications

3.  Policy application › Client: Yolo County and now Reclamation › Evaluate economic impacts of changes in the frequency and duration of bypass inundation  Data requirements › What is grown in the bypass, and where? › Crop budgets › Flood inundation footprint  Key considerations › Spatial scale › Grower planting decisions

4.  Model framework › Bypass Production Model  Regional agricultural economic model › HEC-RAS  Other models › DayCent  Crop growth model › IMPLAN  Multiplier effects – jobs, taxes, value added

15.  Key results › Linkage: Flood – Crop Growth – Economics › Coordination with bypass landowners › Comprehensive data collection  Engage stakeholders for project approval

16.  Policy application › Use the SWAP and CALVIN models to evaluate South-of-Delta drought water markets › Using 2009 drought as an example  Data requirements › Standard SWAP data requirements › Linkage to CALVIN › Transfer capacities and constraints  Key considerations › Evaluate the economic and hydrologic gradient of water transfers › Water in California varies greatly by space and time

17.  Model framework › SWAP  Agricultural economics › CALVIN  Transfer capacities and system linkage  Calibrate against standard SWAP data  Policy evaluation › 2009 drought › Groundwater replacement › Local supplies

21. Export Regions Import Regions (V11) Stanislaus River (V12) Turlock (V13) Merced (V14B) SW Kings County (V15A) Tulare (V17) Kings River (V21A) Kern Total Imports (AF) (V10) SJR Exchg Contractors 17,58753,18622,109000092,882 (V14A) Westlands 00013,66570,0000083,665 (V15B) Castaic Lake Area 000016,27000 (V19A) Kern 00000068,121 (V20) Kern 00000000 (V21B) Kern 00000015,747 (V21C) Kern 0000006,513 Total Exports17,58753,18622,10913,66586,270090,381283,197  No market adjustment › Revenue loss $512 million  Local market effects › Water traded 283 K Ac ft › Net revenue gain $109.5 million

22.  Key results › New market links require new market institutions › Important to let economic gradient inform water transfers  Linkage between SWAP and CALVIN

23.  Santa Clara Valley Water District › Economic impacts of changes in the agricultural groundwater charge  Solano County › Economic impacts of BDCP Conservation Measure 4  Solano County and Cache Slough ROA  Diageo Wine Supply and Demand › Model of wine supply chain management and response to market shocks

24.  Salinas Valley Model › Genes to Growers USDA project › Integrate agronomic information into Salinas Valley model to evaluate changes in nitrogen and water use efficiency  SWAP – Groundwater Dynamics › Project under way to link SWAP and C2VSim  CVP - Integrated Resource Plan › SWAP model linkage to:  Water, climate, costs, demands, and urban growth

25.  North of the Delta Offstream Storage Investigation › SWAP model update and application to federal feasibility analysis › National Economic Development (NED) Benefits Summary Workbook  Pre-processing adjustments  Consistent interest rates  Disaggregate input cost data  Power costs  Post-processing adjustments  Input costs  Fallow land costs  Management charge  Federal discount rate  Normalized crop prices

26.  Example applications highlight: › Integrated modeling capabilities › Project-specific motivating factors › Data requirements  Applications in progress: › Remote sensing, calibration methods, dynamics  Richard Howitt @ 4pm