1. New Product Forecasting Issues
Kenneth B. Kahn, Ph.D.
The University of Tennessee
Department of Marketing and Logistics
315 Stokely Management Center
Knoxville, Tennessee
(865)

2. New Product Forecasting Issues
Low accuracy (high forecast error)
Low credibility
Limited amount of data available for analysis
Inability to fully capture market complexity, cannibalization, market penetration rate, etc.
Limited amount of time for analysis

3. New Product Forecast Accuracy
Source: Kenneth B. Kahn, Journal of Product Innovation Management, March 2002
Cost Reductions

4. Some Keys to New Product Forecasting Success
There is no silver bullet when it comes to new product forecasting.
New product forecasting success is a result of data, experience, cross-functional communication, business knowledge, and being connected to the customer.
Use a toolbox approach when applying new product forecasting techniques.
New product forecasting requires reconciliation of multiple techniques based on judgment and analytical skills.
New product forecasting is a process of assumptions management.
Think in terms of ranges, not specific numbers.

5. Course Agenda New Product Forecasting Issues and Considerations
Judgmental Approaches for Forecasting New Products
Customer- and Market-Research Based Techniques
Quantitative Approaches for Forecasting New Products
Managing the New Product Forecasting Process