2. 1 Preliminary IPT Results Only ASPRS/CRSP IPT * 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast May 24, 2000 *Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position

3. 2 Preliminary IPT Results Only Background As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential impact on the U.S.As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential impact on the U.S. –Socio-economic –Environmental –National security To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements …To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements … –Commercial –Government –Academia and measure success –Standards –Baselines –Criteria

4. 3 Preliminary IPT Results Only Background August 1999 Under a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have combined resources and expertise to develop a baseline and forecast of the Remote Sensing Industry Market

5. 4 Preliminary IPT Results Only Vision and Mission Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both U.S. Government and private industry enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly competitive market. By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly develop a process that: –Enables analysis of the Remote Sensing Industry –Baselines the industry –Presents a 10-year business forecast

6. 5 Preliminary IPT Results Only Integrated Product Team (IPT) Working Group IPTs Formed as Needed Lit. Search: Jim PlaskerLit. Search: Jim Plasker Interview: Charles Mondello and Ron RabinInterview: Charles Mondello and Ron Rabin Survey: Bill Piper and Jim PlaskerSurvey: Bill Piper and Jim Plasker Forecast: Ron Rabin and Mindy BrownForecast: Ron Rabin and Mindy Brown Marketing: Mindy Brown and Patrick SkrmettiMarketing: Mindy Brown and Patrick Skrmetti

7. 6 Preliminary IPT Results Only Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan

8. 7 Preliminary IPT Results Only Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan Phase ICharacterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)Phase ICharacterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase IICharacterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001)Phase IICharacterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001) Phase IIIValidate I and II (Dec 2003)Phase IIIValidate I and II (Dec 2003) Phase IVMarket Forecast (Dec 2004)Phase IVMarket Forecast (Dec 2004)

9. 8 Preliminary IPT Results Only SAA Near-term Goals Create and maintain interest and awarenessCreate and maintain interest and awareness Develop processDevelop process –Interview –Survey –Literature search –Market forecast Present plan and interim results (May 2000)Present plan and interim results (May 2000) Present Phase I results (Dec 2000)Present Phase I results (Dec 2000) Your Feedback Essential

10. 9 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Sectors Commercial/Private/Not for ProfitCommercial/Private/Not for Profit GovernmentGovernment –Federal –State –Local AcademiaAcademia

11. 1010 Preliminary IPT Results Only Remote Sensing Industry Data Collection Data Processing Industry Intermediaries Support Elements Platforms & Sensors End-User Hardware Software Etc. VARs Consultants Etc. Business Segments

12. 1 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Segments

13. 1212 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Segments NAICS: Market segments have been mapped to the North American Industry Classification System (formerly the SIC codes) for the Remote Sensing Industry to provide the ability to correlate future economic census data retrospectively to market forecasts.

14. 1313 Preliminary IPT Results Only Business Segments Forecast Framework Market Segments Commercial GovernmentCustomerSegmentsAcademia Data Collection Data Processing SupportElements Intermediaries Environmental National/ Global Security Transportation Agriculture Agriculture Civil Gov’t Exploration/Resources Forestry Insurance Mapping Real Estate Telecomms Utilities Entertainment/Media

15. 1414 Preliminary IPT Results Only Study Components Literature Search Literature Search Interviews Interviews Survey Survey Market Forecast Market Forecast LiteratureSearch Survey Interviews ANALYSIS MarketForecast

16. 1515 Preliminary IPT Results Only Literature Review Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999 Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999 KPMG KPMG Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch

17. 1616 Preliminary IPT Results Only Commercial Sector Interviews Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments Summary: These preliminary results apply to commercial sector onlyThese preliminary results apply to commercial sector only This commercial sample represents about 20% of targeted 150 companiesThis commercial sample represents about 20% of targeted 150 companies Government and academia sectors to be addedGovernment and academia sectors to be added

18. 1717 Preliminary IPT Results Only Commercial Sector Markets

19. 1818 Preliminary IPT Results Only Emerging Key Factors & Barriers CompetitionCompetition –The international playing field is not level. »U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors –Foreign competitor workforce trains in U.S. –Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costs –Issue: US Government role? Industry role?

20. 1919 Preliminary IPT Results Only Emerging Key Factors & Barriers Governmental influence is pervasive...Governmental influence is pervasive... –Legislation and policies restrict U.S. company foreign sales, but do not hinder foreign companies –Government is predominant purchaser of data –Mergers with foreign companies are problematic –Standardization –Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Could/Should U.S. Government and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?”

21. 2020 Preliminary IPT Results Only Emerging Key Factors & Barriers Technology: Innovations needed to...Technology: Innovations needed to... – Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery time » “Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips – Provide information valued by user – Develop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions – Lower costs Issues: How can the industry focus more sharply on real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? Role of U.S. Government?

22. 2121 Preliminary IPT Results Only Emerging Key Factors & Barriers Education is multi-faceted problem... Education is multi-faceted problem... –Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression of task levels »The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified applicants few »How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return home) –Knowledgeable customers/users –Issues: Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current education "pipeline"? Whose responsibility is “knowledgeable” customer?

23. 2 Preliminary IPT Results Only Emerging Key Factors & Barriers Lack of customer knowledge inhibits market growthLack of customer knowledge inhibits market growth –Users are not fully aware of potential benefits –Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles for user enlightenment –Issue: Industry investment is needed to cultivate the market Economy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing industryEconomy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing industry –Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic fluctuations –Issue: Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing power

24. 2323 Preliminary IPT Results Only Increased growth and competitionIncreased growth and competition » Scope is Global: Growing Global Market, growing global competition; U.S. Government and U.S. industry vs. foreign nations and industry at home and abroad Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvementsContinued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvements »LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, micro-systems, etc. Increased personal use of remote sensing informationIncreased personal use of remote sensing information Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, realignments) Future Industry Trends

25. 2424 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Forecast

26. 2525 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Forecast 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizations150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizations –20% Complete –Government and Academia Sectors will be added Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000] Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000] Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000] Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000] Literature search Literature search Analysis Analysis Market forecast Market forecast

27. 2626 Preliminary IPT Results Only 2000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion2000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion –U.S. market »Aerial imagery dominates »Software is significant component »High resolution space-based imagery just entering market Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- spectral data (space-based collection)Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- spectral data (space-based collection) Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer- driven marketsBasic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer- driven markets Integrated orthophotography unit cost decliningIntegrated orthophotography unit cost declining Current World RSI Market Projections Source: Frost & Sullivan 1999 Based on conventional approaches...

28. 2727 Preliminary IPT Results Only Projected Market Forecast What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”? Assumes inelastic market, therefore could be conservativeAssumes inelastic market, therefore could be conservative Out years difficult to predictOut years difficult to predict Market analysis process will better define the futureMarket analysis process will better define the future Based in part on Frost and Sullivan, 1999 World wide Remote Sensing Market

29. 2828 Preliminary IPT Results Only What If...????? Space-based imagery proliferation results in new marketsSpace-based imagery proliferation results in new markets The workforce issues are resolvedThe workforce issues are resolved User knowledge/awareness is enhancedUser knowledge/awareness is enhanced U.S. Government levels the playing field for international competitionU.S. Government levels the playing field for international competition

30. 2929 Preliminary IPT Results Only What If...????? Existing technologies inserted in existing applicationExisting technologies inserted in existing application –LIDAR –Radar –SAR/IFSAR –Commercial satellites –GPS Emergent technologies enrich existing applicationsEmergent technologies enrich existing applications –Electronic & wireless information transfer –Hyperspectral –Multi-returns radar –Foliage Penetrating (Fopen) radar New systems are created to support RSINew systems are created to support RSI –Unattended systems –Systems of systems –Knowledge-based decision aids –Personal use systems New technologies create new merged applicationsNew technologies create new merged applications –Micro-electronics –Micro power –Multi sensors in single platforms –Bandwidth increase Technologies are combined in creative, innovative ways to meet customer/user requirements Time

31. 3030 Preliminary IPT Results Only and What if ???... Remote sensing resources are increasingly applied to broader issues related to socio-economic improvement, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etcRemote sensing resources are increasingly applied to broader issues related to socio-economic improvement, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etc Use of remote sensing information becomes increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, especially in the domain of personal-use systemsUse of remote sensing information becomes increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, especially in the domain of personal-use systems Then More Answers at the December Meeting

32. 3131 Preliminary IPT Results Only Estimating/Forecasting Future RS Market Example Factors for Consideration Addressable marketAddressable market Potential sales; revenues;Potential sales; revenues; profit margins profit margins InvestmentInvestment Potential influences of market globalismPotential influences of market globalism Better market measuresBetter market measures

33. 3232 Preliminary IPT Results Only Market Summary Growth? YES!!! Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet real needs of users and customer’s requirements with focus on remote sensing information rather than simply supplying data and imagery More details in December

34. 3 Preliminary IPT Results Only Industry Research & Survey Methodology Survey Methodology

35. 3434 Preliminary IPT Results Only ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey Purpose To better understand the industry: Current baseline of industryCurrent baseline of industry A 10-year industry forecastA 10-year industry forecast An estimate of future industry trendsAn estimate of future industry trends Future workforce needsFuture workforce needs

36. 3535 Preliminary IPT Results Only Survey Plan Outline Perform preliminary interviewsPerform preliminary interviews Develop online questionsDevelop online questions Design databaseDesign database Expand on premiseExpand on premise Establish e-mail listEstablish e-mail list Collect/analyze dataCollect/analyze data

37. 3636 Preliminary IPT Results Only Commercial Survey Objective To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in terms of: To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in terms of: Average firm size The primary markets they serve Trends and directions of the industry forces affecting the growth of the industry Establishing the current and future workforce needs

38. 3737 Preliminary IPT Results Only Academic Survey Objectives To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period:To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period: –numbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificates –faculty recruitment- specialties to be hired –technology acquisition and laboratory development –disciplinary and interdisciplinary program development To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example:To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example: –business-university partnership commercialization efforts –research –funding, equipment funds –registration/certification regulations –friction between private sector and educational project work

39. 3838 Preliminary IPT Results Only ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey We Will Be Conducting an Online Survey That Will Begin Like This:

40. 3939 Preliminary IPT Results Only Industry Survey Click here to begin

41. 4040 Preliminary IPT Results Only Care to Join Us??? Contact: Charles Mondello or Ron Rabin forecast@asprs.org For copies of presentation: www.asprs.org Contributing Organizations Include: NOAA Spencer B. Gross, Inc. University of Utah Kodak Space Imaging Earthdata Technologies PAR Government Systems Autometric

42. 4141 Preliminary IPT Results Only The End