1. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD ACRP 4-08 - Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas (RSA) Objective: develop and validate a user-friendly software analysis tool that can be used by airport and industry stakeholders to quantify risk and support planning and engineering decisions when determining RSA requirements to meet an acceptable level of safety for various types and sizes of airports Completion Date: 02/15/2011 September 7, 2015

2. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Project Panel Chair –Mr. Dana L. Ryan – Cleveland Hopkins Airport System ACRP Staff Representatives –Ms. Theresia H. Schatz – Program Officer –Mr. Joseph J. Brown-Snell – Program Associate Members –Mr. Steven G. Benson - Coffman Associates –Ms. Diana S. Dolezal - Greater Toronto Airports Authority –Mr. Alex M. Kashani - Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority –Ms. Deborah T. Marino - Greater Orlando Aviation Authority –Mr. Phillip C. Miller - California DOT –Dr. Xiaosong "Sean" Xiao - Tetra Tech Inc. Liaison Representatives –Dr. Michel Hovan - Federal Aviation Administration –Mr. Matthew J. Griffin - Airports Council International - North America –Dr. Richard Pain – Transportation Research Board

3. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Project Team Principal Investigator –Manuel Ayres – Applied Research Associates Co-Principal Investigator –Richard Speir – Applied Research Associates Project Manager –Hamid Shirazi – Applied Research Associates Team Members –Regis Carvalho – Applied Research Associates –Robert E. David – RED & Associates –Derek Wong – Consultant –John Gadzinski – Four Winds Consulting –Jim Hall - Applied Research Associates –Edith Arambula – Applied Research Associates

4. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Briefing Outline Background Project Objective Project Tasks Data & Models Risk Approach Consequence Approach Analysis Software Validation

5. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Background 55% of jet aircraft fatal accidents occurred during landings and takeoffs (Boeing 2010) Aircraft overruns, veer-offs and undershoots account for most accidents in the immediate vicinity of the runway Runway safety areas (RSA) are capable of mitigating the consequences of many of such events Many airports were built before current RSA standards were set and some airports can not accomodate larger areas due to physical and environmental restrictions FAA has embarked upon a program (Order 5200-8) to improve non-standard RSA

6. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Alternatives to Improve RSAs Extend the RSA Modify or relocate the runway Use declared runway distances Implement arresting systems (e.g. EMAS) Goal was to develop methodology with capability to analyze either or combination of these alternatives

7. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Project Goals Update the ACRP Report 3 accident/incident database and collect data on aircraft runway veer-off events Develop risk models for frequency and location for each type of incident: landing overruns (LDOR); landing undershoots (LDUS); landing veer-offs (LDVO), takeoff overruns (TOOR), and takeoff veer- offs (TOVO). Develop approach to evaluate declared runway distances on risk Develop approach to assess impact of EMAS on risk Develop approach to model incident consequences Develop user-friendly analysis software Validate the new approach and software

8. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Project Tasks

9. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Database of Accidents and Incidents Organized in Microsoft Access 1414 events, 300+ fields Worldwide sources: NTSB, FAA AIDS, FAA/NASA ASRS, Canada TSB, UK AAIB, French BEA, Australian TSB, New Zealand TAIC, Singapore AAIB, Ireland AAIU, Spain CIAIAC Date, location, summary, airport/runway data, flight data, weather conditions, consequences, wreckage location, causal and contributing factors

10. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Events Counts of Collected Data

11. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Three-Part Risk Model Approach  Three-Part Risk Model Event probability Location probability operating conditions (airplane performance, type of operation, runway distance available and elevation, weather conditions) RSA characteristics, geometry, presence of EMAS type, size and location of obstacles Consequences  Three-Part Risk Model Event probability Location probability operating conditions (airplane performance, type of operation, runway distance available and elevation, weather conditions) RSA characteristics, geometry, presence of EMAS type, size and location of obstacles Consequences  Three-Part Risk Model Event probability Location probability operating conditions (airplane performance, type of operation, runway distance available and elevation, weather conditions) RSA characteristics, geometry, presence of EMAS type, size and location of obstacles Consequences Risk Classification

12. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Frequency Models RSA x y Stop Location Probability Distributions Based on accident, incident, normal operations and aircraft performance data

13. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Location Models – Example for Overruns Location Models – Example for Overruns x y RSA

14. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Consequence Approach

15. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Software Capabilities RSA risk analysis Risk of aircraft overruns, veer-off and undershoots Consideration of specific airport operational and weather conditions Assess impact of declared runway distances Assess impact of Engineered Material Arresting Systems (EMAS) User-defined RSA and EMAS configuration Consideration of obstacles (dimensions, location, type)

16. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Field Test Airports for Validation Miami International (MIA) Ted Stevens Anchorage International (ANC) Lambert-St Louis International (STL) Spokane International (GEG) Joe Foss Field (FSD) Yeager (CRW) Deer Valley International (DVT) Ft Lauderdale Executive (FXE)

17. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Validation Incidents Accidents

18. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Opportunities to Use the New Tool Analysis of RSA alternatives in support of cost/benefit studies Prioritization of RSA improvements within an airport Statewide and Nationwide RSA improvement programs Support for decision making Evaluate impact of modifying RSA standards