1. Assessing climate change risk

2. Introduction Welcome & Acknowledgement Background Workshops  action plan General Manager’s support Housekeeping Facilities, OH&S, Turn off mobiles [Insert Council logo]

3. Purpose Developing a Climate Change Action Plan Program Keeping to time Respectful discussion Introductions Introduction Right: An action planning workshop at The Hills Shire Council

4. Gain internal support Steering Committee Meeting 1 -Develop a planning program Steering Committee Meeting 1 -Develop a planning program Workshop 1 -Introduction Workshop 1 -Introduction Steering Committee Meeting 2 -Research adaptation options Steering Committee Meeting 2 -Research adaptation options Steering Committee Meeting 4 -Action plan Steering Committee Meeting 4 -Action plan Steering Committee Meeting 5 -Review Steering Committee Meeting 5 -Review Steering Committee 3 -Mitigation Steering Committee 3 -Mitigation Workshop 4 -Mitigation actions Workshop 4 -Mitigation actions Identify Planning Team Workshop 2 -Risk assessment Workshop 2 -Risk assessment Workshop 3 -Adaptation actions Workshop 3 -Adaptation actions Progress

5. Expected outcomes Participants will: Understand concepts of risk assessment Brainstorm/ undertake group work to: –Identify potential risks to Council service areas –Analyse risk statements to determine preliminary levels of risk –Evaluate risks to determine priorities

6. What is risk? Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x Consequence of that occurrence What is the likelihood it will occur? What are the potential consequences of the occurrence? © State of New South Wales through the Department of Planning

7. Risk assessment AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management – Principles and Guidelines Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government Australian Greenhouse Office, 2006 Photo courtesy of Scott Lenton, Clarence Valley Council

8. Treat the risks - Identify options - Select the best - Develop plans - Implement Evaluate the risks - Evaluate risks - Prioritise risks - Screen risks Analyse the risks - Review controls - Likelihood -Consequence - Level of risk Identify the risks - What can happen - How can it happen Risk assessment Establish the context - Objectives - Stakeholders - Success criteria - Climate scenarios Risk Assessment Communicate & consult Monitor & review (AGO, 2006)

9. Establishing the context Climate change scenarios Scope – activities; geographic boundaries; time horizon Stakeholders – involvement & communication Framework for evaluating risks Organisation’s concerns Photo courtesy of Scott Lenton, Clarence Valley Council

10. Identification of risks Understanding the links between climate change and risk Climate Impact: (e.g. Increased frequency of hot days) Hazard associated with the impact: (e.g. accelerated deterioration of buildings) Consequence of hazard to Council objectives: (e.g. increased maintenance costs to Council) Risk statement: “Increased frequency of hot days, leading to accelerated deterioration of buildings resulting in increased maintenance costs to Council”

11. Examples Increased frequency of hot days Increased energy demand and increased brownouts Increased indoor patronage at Council community centres Increased beach/pool patronage Increase in heat related illness for outdoor staff Climate impact Hazard associated with impact Consequences of hazard to Council objectives Decrease in Council service delivery Increased service requirements Increased water related injury Increase in time lost for stop work orders Further consequences to Council objectives may cascade from the above

12. Risk Statements Example of an adequate risk statement: Increased frequency of hot days, leading to accelerated deterioration of Council assets resulting in increased maintenance costs to Council Example of a risk statement which may not be detailed enough: Increased hot days leading to increased maintenance of buildings It is not clear how the maintenance of buildings will affect council activities

13. Identifying risks Activity Divide into groups of 3 -5 people (different roles) You will be assigned a key element Think of all risks for the key element: oService delivery oRelated services and service providers oPersonnel oGeneral public oSystems and equipment oAdministration and support

14. Identifying risks ….Activity continued…. Record all ideas Aim for cause effect statements Link risk statements to service objectives Ensure risk statement will be understood by staff who have not attended this workshop

15. Identifying risks Link risk statements to service objectives: –Public safety –Local economy and growth –Community and lifestyle –Environment and sustainability –Public administration Activity to be followed by break while facilitator enters into spreadsheet

16. Analysis of risk statements Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x Consequence of that occurrence Analysis should take into account controls - including any current management regimes & responses in place to control each risk.

17. Determining consequence Consequence = “How bad is it likely to be” Risks can affect Council in many different ways depending on objectives (Success Criteria) Success Criteria suggested by the AGO (2006): –Public safety –Local economy and growth –Community and lifestyle –Environment and sustainability –Public administration **Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**

18. Determining consequence Rating Success Criteria Public SafetyLocal economy and growth Community and lifestyle Environment and sustainability Public administrationOther success criteria CatastrophicLarge number of injury or loss of life Regional decline leading to widespread business failure, loss of employment and hardship The region would be seen as very unattractive, moribund and unable to support its community Major widespread loss of environmental amenity and progressive irrecoverable environmental damage Public administration would fall into decay and cease to be effective A level that would constitute a complete failure MajorIsolated instances of serious injury or loss of life Regional stagnation such that businesses are unable to thrive and employment does not keep pace with population growth Severe and widespread decline in services and quality of life within the community Severe loss of environmental amenity and a danger of continuing environmental damage Public administration would struggle to remain effective and would be seen to be in danger of failing completely A level that would constitute a major problem close to complete failure ModerateSmall number of injury Significant general reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts General appreciable decline in services Isolated but significant instances of environmental damage that might be reversed with intensive efforts Public administration would be under pressure on several fronts A significant issue which may be reversed with major efforts MinorSerious near misses or minor injuries Individually significant but isolated areas of reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts Isolated but noticeable examples of decline in services Minor instances of environmental damage that could be reversed Isolated instances of public administration being under severe pressure No significant harm, but should be considered to prevent further escalation InsignificantAppearance of a threat but no actual harm Minor shortfall relative to current forecasts There would be minor areas in which the region was unable to maintain its current services No environmental damage There would be minor instances of public administration being under more than usual stress but it could be managed A level that would attract no additional attention or resources **Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**

19. Determining likelihood **Replace with Council risk framework if applicable** Likelihood ratingRecurrent RisksSingle Events Almost Certain May occur several times a year>50% chance of occurring Likely May occur around once a year50% chance of occurring Possible May occur once every 10 years<50% chance of occurring Unlikely May arise once in 10 - 25years>0% chance of occurring Rare Unlikely in the next 25 years Close to 0% change of occurring

20. Analysing risks Level of Risk = Likelihood of an occurrence x Consequence of that occurrence MediumLow Rare Medium Low Unlikely High Medium LowPossible ExtremeHigh MediumLowLikely Extreme HighMedium Almost Certain CatastrophicMajorModerateMinorInsignificant Consequence Likelihood **Replace with Council risk framework if applicable**

21. Any questions?

22. Analysing risks Activities: Analysing each risk statement – using the Risk Assessment Tool Prioritising risk statements – can be completed after the workshop by the Steering Committee

23. Risk Assessment Tool Controls Council’s current controls are considered when determining the likelihood and consequence of each risk statement Only measures that are already in place can be considered as controls Examples: routine monitoring and repair systems, existing levees, incentive programs

24. Achievements from the workshop During the workshop we have: Developed a list of detailed risk statements relevant to Council service areas Analysed risk statements to determine preliminary levels of risk Evaluated risks to develop a list of priority risk statements to be addressed in the climate change action plan

25. Conclusion Thank you Evaluation forms

26. References AGO, 2006, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/~/media/pu blications/local-govt/risk-management.ashx http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/~/media/pu blications/local-govt/risk-management.ashx Australian and New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 4360: 2004 Risk Management. AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009 Risk Management – Principles and guidelines.