1. Enhancing Climate Resiliency into Manitoba Infrastructure Current Issues & Opportunities PRAC Workshop January 28, 2015 Current State of Transportation Adaptation in Manitoba You are here

2. Outline Resilience MIT Adaptation ACTION Manitoba's Context Manitoba Transportation System Transportation Emissions Weather Events Transport Infrastructure Design & Adaptation Frameworks Climate Impacts on Systems Disruptions & Adaptations Gradual Implications Extreme Event Implications System Resilience Approaches & Planning Discussion

3. Resilience The adaptive capacity of a resource system or a human society depends on the resilience of these systems. Resilience in the face of climate change, as with resilience to present-day hazards such as floods and droughts, therefore depends on the scale, intensity, and rate of change of the climate system, as well as the inherent ability of ecosystems or communities to adjust to new circumstances (Riebsame et al., 1995). Resilience is the ability of a system to return to a predisturbed state without incurring any lasting fundamental change http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=453

4. Daily Operations http://jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=31712&nseq=5 http://www.gov.mb.ca/health/ems/lifeflight.htm l http://www.gov.mb.ca/flooding/fighting/flood_protection.html http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/namo/ferry/history.htmlhttp://www.frontierpower.com/news.htm http://www.chrisd.ca/2011/11/23/manitoba-road-information-service-511-highway-conditions/ http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-winter-storm-closes-trans-canada- highway-1.1339398

5. MIT Adaptation ACTION 1.Winter Road System Manitoba [$250 K/yr] 2.Spring Road Restrictions Program Policy Revisions Manitoba 3.Winter Weight Premium Policy Manitoba 4.Road Flood Proofing Manitoba [$215 M ] 5.Materials Properties Manitoba 6.Road Weather Information System (RWIS) Manitoba 7.Water Control Structures Manitoba [$2 M/yr] 8.Permafrost Degradation on Infrastructure Manitoba 9.Hudson Bay Railway Rehabilitation Manitoba [$60 M ] 10.Port of Churchill Capital Investment Manitoba [$8 M ] 11.Transport Canada Network of Expertise on Transportation in Arctic Waters (NEXTAW) Manitoba [$2.5 M ]

6. Winter Roads: Regression Analysis Winter Road Alignment MIT: Mid Canada Snow Conference & Trade Show 2010 http://www.climatechangeconnection.org/impacts/Winterroads.htm

7. SRR & WWP Policy SRR and WWP policies are to be based primarily upon weather conditions allowing MIT to impose and remove restrictions based upon the actual weather conditions. This allows for flexibility to start restrictions and end restrictions, or increase/decrease allowable freight weight to carriers when the weather conditions warrant. This provides more timely protection for MIT roads and also assists industry by providing regulations based upon the weather which may result in improved economic benefits. http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/srr/zones.html

8. Example Flood Forecasting :PRI Source : J Senyk MIT

9. Adaptation Enhances Economic Development Options for Hwy 75 - Enhanced Flood Protection Providing flood protection for PTH 75 greater than I-29 does not benefit cross-border traffic, because I-29 and the Port-of-Entry are closed.

10. Port of Churchill - Arctic Bridge - Sea Ice http://www.arcticbridge.com/ http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/04/arctic-sea-ice-at-fifth-lowest-annual-maximum/

11. Port of Churchill : Extended Season Dr Blair & Ryan Smith: http://climate.uwinnipeg.ca/index_files/Page3469.htmhttp://climate.uwinnipeg.ca/index_files/Page3469.htm http://prosperitysaskatchewan.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/port-of-churchill.png http://prosperitysaskatchewan.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/port-of-churchill.png : http://www.peterblahut.ca/archive.asp?aMonth=11&aYear=2009

12. Manitoba’s Economy Manitoba’s economy depends on the personal and freight mobility provided by the provincial transportation system. Essential products and services like energy, food, manufacturing, and trade all depend in interrelated ways on the reliable functioning of these transportation components. Disruptions to transportation systems, therefore, can cause large economic and personal losses. See: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

13. Manitoba’s Transportation System “... Manitoba’s transportation system is the backbone of an economically diverse and trade-dependent jurisdiction. Multi-modal in scope, and provided through a mix of public and private infrastructure, operations and services, the Manitoba transportation system supports the economic, social and general mobility needs of more than 1.2 million Manitobans, and facilitates interprovincial and international trade in goods and services valued at over $60 billion...” Four Main Components that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts: FIXED NODE INFRASTRUCTURE, such as ports, airports, and rail terminals; FIXED ROUTE INFRASTRUCTURE, such as roads, bridges, pedestrian/bicycle trails and lanes, locks, freight and commuter railways, and pipelines, with mixed public and private ownership and management; VEHICLES, such as cars, transit buses, and trucks; transit and railcars and locomotives; ships and barges; and aircraft – many privately owned; and PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS, LAWS, POLICIES, AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS that convert infrastructure and vehicles into working transportation networks. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

14. GHG Emissions http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/ & http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/manitoba-ghg-emissions/manitoba-transportation-ghgs/http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/manitoba-ghg-emissions/manitoba-transportation-ghgs/ Transportation

15. Weather Events Transportation systems are already experiencing costly climate change related impacts. Manitoba experiences severe precipitation events, hail, warmer winters, melting permafrost and flooding, damaging roads, bridges, and rail systems, and vehicles. Over the coming decades, all regions and modes of transportation will be affected by increasing temperatures, more extreme weather events, and changes in precipitation. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

16. Transport Infrastructure Design Transport infrastructure is expensive and designed for long life (typically 50 to 100 years). MB’S TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSET REPLACEMENT VALUE estimate ranges somewhere between $50 - $100 BILLON. As climatic conditions shift, portions of this infrastructure will increasingly be subject to climatic stresses that will reduce the reliability and capacity of transportation systems. Transportation systems are also vulnerable to interruptions in fuel and electricity supply, as well as communications disruptions – which are also subject to climatic stresses http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

17. Transport Adaptation Framework International Practices on Climate Adaptation in Transportation http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/publications_and_tools/international_practices/page02.cfm#Toc405798016

18. Climate Impacts on Systems Climate change will affect TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS directly, through infrastructure damage, and indirectly, through changes in trade flows, agriculture, energy use, and settlement patterns. For example recent floods have impacted provincial highway and bridge infrastructure. Re-routing freight transportation during flood events involves longer distances and higher costs impacting economic competitiveness. If policy measures and technological changes reduce greenhouse gas emissions by affecting fuel types, there will likely be significant impacts on the transportation of energy supplies (such as pipelines and oil/coal trains) and on the cost of transportation to freight and passenger users. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

19. Disruptions & Adaptation Transportation Systems as networks may use alternative routes around damaged elements or shift traffic to undamaged modes. Other adaptation actions include: new infrastructure designs for future climate conditions, asset management programs, at-risk asset protection, operational changes, and abandoning/relocating infrastructure assets that would be too expensive to protect. As new and rehabilitated transportation systems are developed, climate change impacts should be routinely incorporated into the planning for these systems. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

20. Gradual Implications A gradually warming climate will accelerate asphalt deterioration and cause buckling of pavements and rail lines. Streamflows based on increasingly more frequent and intense rainfall instead of slower snowmelt could increase the likelihood of bridge damage from faster-flowing streams. Less snow in some areas will reduce snow removal costs and extend construction seasons. Shifts in agricultural production patterns will necessitate changes in transportation routes and modes. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

21. Extreme Event Implications Extreme weather events stress transportation at precisely the time when smooth operation is critical. Management plans, emergency measures and communication tools can be designed and deployed to protect the safety of transportation system service providers and users.

22. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

23. System Resilience Approaches Land Use Vulnerability & Risk New Infrastructure Design Asset Management Emergency Response

24. Regional and Local Climate Predictions Warming? Extreme Cold? Snow and Rain? Wind? Where? When? How Much? Confidence? Planning for Enhancing Climate Resiliency http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2015/20150116_Temperature2014.pdf

25. RESILIENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Fixed Node Infrastructure Fixed Route Infrastructure Vehicles People, Institutions, Laws, Policies, & Information Systems Terry.Zdan@gov.mb.ca MIT 2042273724 Discussion You are here