1. Out of Boom and Bust, but Where now for Geoscience Departments Christopher M. Keane American Geological Institute December 5, 2005 AGU Annual Meeting

2. Departmental Health Strong employment prospects Strong employment prospects Economic growth across sectors Economic growth across sectors Steady human resource pipeline Steady human resource pipeline Public acknowledgement Public acknowledgement University departments are lynchpin in the supply chain University departments are lynchpin in the supply chain

3. How are the geosciences doing? How do we define doing “well” How do we define doing “well” Probably are doing better than expected! Probably are doing better than expected! Biggest question is “market rationalization” Biggest question is “market rationalization” Is our perspective domestic or global? Is our perspective domestic or global?

4. What changes are afoot? Statistical Profile of Academic Geoscience

5. Geoscience Enrollments in the United States 1955-2003 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989 1991 1993 19951997199920012003 Year Majors Total UG Solid Earth UG Total GraduateSolid Earth Graduate

6. Geoscience Degrees Awarded in the United States 1973-2005 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 197319751977197919811983198519871989 199119931995 1997 1999200120032005 Year Degrees B.S. M.S. Ph.D.

7. Introductory Geoscience Enrollments 2005 Totals from AGI Survey on US Enrollment in intro geoscience Totals from AGI Survey on US Enrollment in intro geoscience 148,486 in Physical Geology or equiv. 148,486 in Physical Geology or equiv. 39,080 in Environmental Geology 39,080 in Environmental Geology 3,412 in National Park Geology 3,412 in National Park Geology Publishers cite ~225,000 intro geoscience books per year Publishers cite ~225,000 intro geoscience books per year With 52% response rate, publisher’s numbers are probably reasonable estimates With 52% response rate, publisher’s numbers are probably reasonable estimates

8. Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees 1974-2004 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002 Year Percent Female Enrolled Graduated 2004 50

9. Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics 1950s vs 1980s 01000200030004000500060007000 Environmental/Hydro Economic Geology Geochemistry Geophysics Igneous/Metamorphic Stratigraphy/Paleo Sedimentary Geology Structure/Tectonics Other Number of Theses and Dissertations 1950-59 1980-89 AGI 1991

10. Geoscience Faculty Specialties 1970-1997 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Environmental Petrology Structure Economic Geochemistry Geophysics Paleontology Oceanography General Number of Faculty Reporting Year# of Depts 1970 698 1980 704 1990 887 1997 915 AGI 1997

11. Departmental “Focus” U.S. BS-Degree Granting 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 198019902000 Year Departments Solid Earth Environmental Physical Science

12. Departmental “Focus” U.S. Ph.D.-Degree Granting 0 50 100 150 200 250 198019902000 Year Departments Solid-Earth Environmental Physical Science

13. Degree-Granting Diversity 1980 1990 2000 Departments granting over 25% of all degrees Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees Departments granting the second half of all degrees BS MS Ph.D. 100 Departments Source: AGI/GeoRef

14. Diversity of Faculty Origins All-Time Diversity All-Time Diversity 50% of Faculty graduated from 40 Departments 50% of Faculty graduated from 40 Departments 25% of Faculty graduated from 12 Departments 25% of Faculty graduated from 12 Departments 1980 1980 50% - 39 Departments 50% - 39 Departments 25% - 12 Departments 25% - 12 Departments 1990 1990 50% - 40 Departments 50% - 40 Departments 25% - 13 Departments 25% - 13 Departments 2000 2000 50% - 39 Departments 50% - 39 Departments 25% - 12 Departments 25% - 12 Departments

15. Graduate Schools of Faculty First quartile of production All-Time All-Time 1. California (Berkeley) 2. MIT 3. Columbia 4. Washington 5. Wisconsin 6. Stanford 7. Penn State 8. Illinois 9. Arizona 10. Harvard 11. California (Los Angeles) 12. Michigan 2000 1. Arizona 2. MIT 3. Texas 4. Columbia 5. Wisconsin 6. Georgia 7. Minnesota 8. Stanford 9. Delaware 10. California (Los Angeles) 11. Michigan 12. Florida

16. How does this reflect “out there” The statistics for the other 95% of the geoscience economy

17. The Geoscience Economy 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 198719881989 19901991 199219931994 1995199619971998 199920002001 Year Billions of Dollars Oil/Gas Environmental Academic R&D Coal Mining Fed R&D Source: US BEA/NSF

18. Occupations of Geoscience Degree Holders 1993 Business 14% Insurance 3% Env/Civil Eng 3% Agriculture 3% Other Sci & Eng 4% Legal 1% Finance 1% Medical 1% Higher Ed 5% Geosciences 35% K12 Ed 4% Technology 5% Sci/Eng Tech 6% OTHER 15% NSF, 1993

19. Degree Fields for Working Geoscientists 1993 Geoscience 80% Law 0% Business/Finance 1% Agriculture 3% Other Phys. Sci 2% Engineering 8% Mathematics 2% Bioscience 2% Geography 2% NSF, 1993

20. US Geoscience Employment AGI Demographic Survey 1986 Academic 7% Government 12% Petroleum 50% Mining 9% Environmental 7% Retired/Unemployed 10% Other 5% Total Population 120,000

21. US Geoscience Employment NSF National Survey of College Graduates 1993 Petroleum 34% Mining 7% Environment 12% Government 12% Retired/Unemployed 23% Academic 11% Total Population 125,000

22. US Geoscience Employment AGI Demographic Survey 2000 Petroleum 30% Mining 8% Environmental 14% Government 16% Academia 20% Unemployed/Retired 6% Other 6%

23. Geoscience Bachelor’s Degree Over 50% of Geoscience BS recipients go onto other fields Over 50% of Geoscience BS recipients go onto other fields Employment value of BS in the Geosciences is far below other physical sciences and engineering Employment value of BS in the Geosciences is far below other physical sciences and engineering Sources: AGI, 2002, AIP, 2003

24. Geoscience Master’s Degree Degree of choice for employment Degree of choice for employment Unique in the physical sciences Unique in the physical sciences Salary Range is $25K-$69K Salary Range is $25K-$69K Mean salary is $38K Mean salary is $38K 0.5% failed to find employment upon graduation 0.5% failed to find employment upon graduation 82% of programs focus on Ph.D. preparation, yet…. 82% of programs focus on Ph.D. preparation, yet…. Only 28% go on to Ph.D. program Only 28% go on to Ph.D. program Sources: AGI, 2003

25. Geoscience Ph.D. Degree Excellent employment and job satisfaction Excellent employment and job satisfaction >97% find suitable employment >97% find suitable employment 54% going onto PostDocs 54% going onto PostDocs Wide range of average salaries Wide range of average salaries $35K for PostDoc $35K for PostDoc $42K for Faculty position $42K for Faculty position $49K for Government $49K for Government $69K for Industry $69K for Industry Sources: AGI/AGU, 2003

26. Future Directions Defining B.S. Degree as “liberal” science degree Defining B.S. Degree as “liberal” science degree Better develop MS programs as professionally preparatory Better develop MS programs as professionally preparatory Provide opportunities at Ph.D. level for non-traditional careers Provide opportunities at Ph.D. level for non-traditional careers

27. What is the role of departments? Train for careers in the geosciences Train for careers in the geosciences Core departments do this well Core departments do this well Professional opportunities are not unlimited Professional opportunities are not unlimited Educate the broad public Educate the broad public 4-year programs do this well 4-year programs do this well Is this sufficient value to administrators? Is this sufficient value to administrators? Provide support services for university community Provide support services for university community Does existing in the shadows avoid targeting or make one expendable Does existing in the shadows avoid targeting or make one expendable