2. Oorsig: – Suid-Afrikaanse Ekonomie Aangebied deur: Dawie Roodt 9 November 2007

3. Through the Eyes of the World Source: The Economist January 20-26, 2007 Full page advertisements (Est. Cost: £87,500)

4. The Opposition p. 15

6. The Home Team p. 17

9. Value for Money? MacedoniaSouth Africa Taxes  Efficiency  Competitive labour  Access to markets  Stability  Infrastructure  Property rights-  But why say it?

10. GDP

11. GDP at Market Prices Source: StatsSA and own calculations

12. GDP Source: StatsSA and own calculations

13. Employment and Output Growth by Economic Sector, 2005 Industry Persons Employed (‘000) Ave. Growth Employment 1996-2005 Ave. Growth Real output 1996-2005 Finance, real estate and business services 1,526.65.2%5.3% Wholesale and retail trade; hotels and restaurants 1,385.42.4%4.6% Manufacturing1,188.2-1.5%2.8% Agriculture, forestry and fishing742.8-2.1%1.5% Mining and quarrying445.9-2.6%0.6% Construction406.2-4.1%4.3% Transport, storage and communication 317.8-3.6%6.5% Electricity, gas and water55.7-2.7%0.6% Private economy6,159.10.3%3.9% Source: Productivity Statistics 2006

14. Fiscal Policy

15. State Finances Gold

16. Medium Term Budget (MTBPS) R bnBudget ’07 MTBPS Oct’07 Expected ’07/08 Difference to Budget Revenue544.6553.2558.013.4 Expenditure533.9542.4541.47.5 Deficit/Surplus10.710.816.6-5.9 % of GDP0.6%0.7% Source: Treasury and own calculations

17. Monetary Policy

18. Interest rates

19. Inflation?

20. GDP and Real Interest Rates Source: StatsSA, SARB and own calculations %

21. Inflation

22. Inflation bracket Source: StatsSA and own calculations 14.6% 10.0% 5.2%

23. Debt Levels

24. Private Sector Credit Extension Source: SARB and own calculations

25. Household debt to disposable income Source: SARB and own calculations 44.5% 50.2% 56.9% 59.4%

26. Savings to disposable income of households Source: SARB and own calculations 9.2% 5.4% 2.6% 0.5%

27. Balance of Payments

28. Source: SARS and own calculations

29. Capital Expenditure First Picture of Cape Town’s New Stadium:

30. Capital Expenditure Institute Time Horizon Planned Capital Expenditure (Rbn) Sasol201362.0 Eskom2011150.0 World Cup 2010: Gautrain Acsa Stadiums 2010 2011 2010 24.0 20.0 8.4 Transnet (Rail, Ports, Pipelines) 201278.0 State (National Budget) 2009372.0

31. Socio-Economic Development

32. Close-up on South Africa Category20042006 Total population (000)46.6mil47.4mil Annual population growth rate (%)1.1%-0.4% ? Population 0-14 years(%)33%32% Rural population (%)41 Total fertility rate (births per woman)2.82.7 Infant mortality rate (1,000)5360 Life expectancy at birth (years)4642 HIV rate (%) in adults (15-49 years)15.618.8% Poverty (% of pop. on less than $2 a day)34 GDP per capita (PPP) US$11 19212 760 GDP growth rate (%)4.5%5.0% Children of primary school-age who are out-of-school (%)7 Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators

33. Global Trends

34. Largest Populations, Latest Millions, (% of World Population) 1 China1,321.8 (20.2%) 2 India1,129.8 (17.3%) 3 United States301.1 (4.6%) 4 Indonesia234.7 (3.6%) 5 Brazil190.1 (2.9%) 6 Pakistan164.7 (2.5%) 7 Bangladesh150.4 (2.3%) 8 Russia141.4 (2.2%) 9 Japan127.8 (2.0%) 10 Nigeria127.4 (1.9%) 27 South Africa47.9 (0.7%) World6,537.8 (100.0%) Source The economist Pocket word in figures 2007/Nationmaster.com

35. Population growth estimates Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007 1950, Mil2004, Mil2050, Mil 1. China5501. China13131. India1593 2. India3582. India10812. China1392 3. USA1583. USA2973. USA395 4. Russia1034. Indonesia2234. Pakistan305 5. Japan845. Brazil1815. Indonesia285 47.0%

36. World Rural Versus Urban Population Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2005 Effect on global demand for food and commodities! SA: Cross Over 1985

37. Biggest Economies GDP by purchasing power (PPP), $bn, 2006 1 United States13,881 2 China9,984 3 Japan4,170 4 India4,158 5 Germany2,558 6 United Kingdom2,121 7 France1,934 8 Italy1,790 9 Russia1,727 10 Brazil1,701 20 South Africa606 World (GDP)66,228 Source International Monetary Fund

38. Percentage of World GDP ‘06 Source: World Bank

39. Other Trends

40. Dollar vs Euro Source: I-Net 9/11 Sub-Prime Crisis

41. Gold Price, Annual Average London Source: Comex, London Bullion Market Association Record: $850 p.o: -Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan - Revolution in Iran - Dollar weakness - Sub-prime Crisis

42. Top Gold Producers, 2004 CountryTonnes 1 South Africa340.4 (2006: 275.0) 2 Australia259.0 3 United States258.0 4 China194.4 5 Russia180.5 6 Peru173.2 7 Indonesia164.4 8 Canada130.7 9 Uzbekistan86.0 10 Papua New Guinea73.5 Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007

43. Oil Price (Brent Crude) Source I-Net Yom Kippur War Iranian Revolution Gulf War Series of Opec cuts Iran/Iraq War 9/11 Conflict in Middle East Nigeria Asian Growth US$ Weakness

44. Proved Reserves of Major Oil- Producing Countries, 2004 Major Producer (in rank order)Percentage of World Total 1 Saudi Arabia¹22.1% 2 Iran¹11.1% 3 Iraq¹ 9.7% 4 Kuwait¹ 8.3% 5 United Arab Emirates¹ 8.2% 6 Venezuela¹ 6.5% 7 Russia 6.1% Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids 1 Opec members. Source The economist Pocket world in figures 2007 60% !

45. Drivers of Commodity Price Increases  New consumer economies in India, China, Russia  Investment demand  Lagging supply increases:  Many years of low prices  Structural under-investments in production  Oil price drivers:  Politics, US$ (short run)  Economics, supply and demand (long run)

46. The China-Effect  Expanded 10% p.a. for past three years  Imports soared by 330% from $15.5bn per month in 2002, to $64.4bn in December 2005  Bought 22% of global base metal output in 2005 (5% in 1980)  Doubled crude oil imports from five years ago (2 nd largest consumer)  Need to raise living standard  Population of 1.3bn, per capita income of $950 per year (129 th in world)

47. Asset Allocation

48. Local Equities, 2007 Economic Sector MCEAAJSE Sector Mining and Quarrying32%35%Mining, Platinum, Gold, Coal Finance, prop and bus. serv30%28% Banks, Insurance, Life Ass, Media & Pht, IT, Property, Support Serv Manufacturing12%10% Auto, Basic Ind, Beverages, Chem, Elect, IT Hard, Pharm & Bio, Steel & Other Personal Service6%5% Cyc Serv, Health, Leisure Ent, Non-cyc Serv, Person Care Transport, storage and comm. 6% Telecomm, Transport Trade, hotels and restaurants 6%4% Cyc Cons, Food & Drug, Gen Retail, House Goods, Non-cyc Cons Electricity, gas and water4%3%Oil & Gas Agri, Forestry and Fishing3% Food Prod Construction2%6%Const & Build 100%

49. www.efgroup.co.za