1. Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist As The World Turns Presentation to: International Society of Hospitality Consultants Quebec City, October 2, 2009

2. Emerging Nations Remain Growth LeadersG7 Set for an Uneven Recovery real GDP, average annual % change The Global Economy Is Beginning to Revive real GDP, average annual % change

3. The Freefall in U.S. Housing and Autos is Over... months’ supply Housing Starts (RHS) mn units Housing Starts & Inventories Inventories (LHS) Vehicle Sales & Inventories US New Vehicle Sales (RHS) US Dealer Inventories (LHS) days’ supplymillions of units

4. ... but U.S. Private & Public Financial Strains Remain Intense U.S. Federal Revenues Slide Rising U.S. Foreclosures 12-month moving sum, y/y % change Personal Income Tax Total Revenues Corporate Income Tax Source: U.S. Treasury. Source: Bloomberg. Subprime Foreclosures (RHS) Prime Foreclosures (LHS) % of total loans

5. billions, 2008* Emerging Markets Will Underpin the Recovery... *IMF estimate CHINA INDIA EU-12 JAPAN CAN- U.S. % of global GDP, 2008* Global GDP (PPP)Population RUSSIA MEXICO BRAZIL Other Asia/Oceania *IMF estimate

6. ... Drive Commodity Prices Higher... Industrial Production y/y % change, 2009Q2 Blue bar represents price at September 25, 2009. Red bars represent Scotia Economics 2010F (average price). Historical end of day observations; Source: Bloomberg. Price Fluctuations Since January 2008 HighLow US$/bbl 145.2965.98 OIL 33.87 High Low US$/mmbtu 13.58 NATURAL GAS LowHigh US$/lb 4.08 2.71 COPPER 1.26 LowHigh US$/lb 24.58 7.72 4.00 NICKEL 3.97 90.00 2.90 7.45 5.25 2.51 HighLow US$/kl 1127 503 JET FUEL 336

7. index: 2002=100 Europe Tourist Arrivals Accelerate Americas Asia... & Become Increasingly Important To the Tourist Industry Source: WTO Sources of Tourist Dollars – Selected Countries US$ billions, 2008 GERMANY UNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOM FRANCE CHINA ITALY JAPAN CANADA RUSSIA NETHERLANDS KOREA HONG KONG BRAZIL

8. Central Bank Rates Central Banks Will Provide Less Monetary Stimulus in 2010 Japan U.S. forecast % U.K. Euro zone Global Inflation annual % change Euro zone U.S. Japan U.K. forecast

9. U.S. Fiscal Deficit Soars US$ billions forecast Balance ex. Social Security Federal Budget Balance US$ Shows Signs of Weakening CAD $ Yuan 元 Yen ¥ Euro € Merchandise Trade Balance Low High 1.03 0.92 Low 1.60 1.47 1.26 112 89 87 Low 6.816.83 7.30 High Low 1.25 US$ Exchange Rates Since January 2008 0.77 Look for Currency Volatility & Renewed U.S. Dollar Weakness 1.00 1.57 89 6.45 Blue bar represents spot price at September 25, 2009. Red bars represent Scotia Economics 2010F (average). Historical end of day observations; Source: Bloomberg.

10. On the Horizon – Tourism must adjust to an Older & Greener World Total Emissions gigatonnes World China India Europe U.S. gigatonnes Median Age (years) Source: IMF

11. 0809f10f REAL GDP U.S.0.4 -2.53.0 Canada0.4 -2.32.8 U.K.0.7 -3.41.2 Euro zone0.8-3.81.5 Japan -0.7-5.71.1 China 9.08.09.3 INFLATION U.S.3.8-0.51.9 Canada2.40.82.1 U.K.3.11.02.0 Euro zone1.61.01.3 Japan0.4-0.5-0.3 China1.2-0.51.5 0809f10f CURRENCIES & RATES, end of period USD/CAD1.221.041.00 EUR/USD1.401.501.60 USD/YEN919585 USD/YUAN6.8 6.3 U.S. Fed Funds Target Rate0.25 1.75 U.S. 10-year Treasury2.213.754.95 COMMODITIES, annual average WTI Oil (US$/bbl)99.626290 Nymex Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) 8.903.905.25 Copper (US$/lb)3.152.302.90

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