1. MEXICAN FOREIGN POLICY: TRENDS AND CONTINUITIES Under a Dominant Party NAFTA as Departure Post-NAFTA: The Fox Era Post-NAFTA: The Calderón Era Post-NAFTA: The Peña Nieto Era And Now? Jockeying for Position

2. PRINCIPLES UNDER THE PRI Nonintervention Enshrined in 1930s Protection of regime Pacifism (e.g. peaceful resolution of disputes) Domestic role for military Diplomacy in Central America Nationalism Assertions of sovereignty Nationalization of oil 1938 Preoccupation with USA Historical memories Insistence on autonomy (eg re Cuba) Emphasis on “principles” not interests

3. MEXICO AS REGIONAL LEADER Credentials  Stable regime under civilian rule  Revolutionary legacy  Economic growth (“Mexican miracle”)  Relationship with USA  Absence of clear rivals Policies  Protector of Cuba  Role in Central America (eg joint declaration with France)  Treaty of Tlatelolco 1962

4. THE BILATERAL COMMISSION Tension and conflict in U.S.-Mexican relations Blue-ribbon commission formed by Ford Foundation (1985-89) Co-chairs: William D. Rogers and Hugo Margáin Released book-length report in both countries + 5 volumes of scholarly papers (1989) Ambiguities on a bilateral FTA Impacts in Mexico > USA  Shaping terms of debate  Focus on drugs and migration  Analysis of public opinion  Comparison with EU

5. NOTES ON PERSONNEL USA  Lawrence Eagleburger, Secretary of State  Henry Cisnero, Mayor of San Antonio  Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Senator from Kansas  Robert McNamara, himself Mexico  Rosario Green, Secretary of Foreign Relations  Juan José Bremer, Ambassador to USA  Héctor Aguilar Camín, Cultural Journalism National Award, Literature Award  Fernando Canales Clariond, Secretary of Economy and of Energy; Governor of Nuevo León  Carlos Fuentes, Miguel de Cervanates Prize, Belisario Domínguez Medal of Honor  Arturo Sarukhan (RA), Ambassador to USA

6. NAFTA? WHY? WHY THEN? Global Scenario:  Economic multipolarity and rivalry (Japan, EU)  Geopolitical uncertainty  Emphasis on geoeconomics U.S. Perspectives:  Supplement to FTA with Canada  Support for neoliberal reforms in Mexico  Growing Mexican-American population within U.S. Mexican Perspectives:  Exhaustion of alternatives (Europe, Japan)  Need to stimulate growth in light of debt crisis  Perpetuation of Salinista policies  Fundamental change in orientatioin

7. NAFTA: WHAT IS IT? A “free trade” area:  Not a customs union  Nor a common market Characteristics: Uneven levels of development Cultural and political variation Hub-and-spoke arrangements (with U.S. at center) Absence of supranational authority (preservation of sovereignty)

8. ASSESSING RESULTS: THE PROBLEM OF CAUSE-AND-EFFECT NAFTA in comparison with: Initial expectations (and political rhetoric) Liberalization (mid-1980s) Global and/or U.S. economic conditions Long-term economic and social trends Short-term shocks (e.g., Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95)

9. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: EXPANSION OF TRADE General effects: More efficiency (in production and consumption) Greater market size (thus higher returns) Tougher competition Questions: 1. Who takes part in the trade? (55 % large firms, 40% maquiladoras, > 5% small firms (~ 2.1 million firms) 2. What about trade diversion?

10. EXPANSION OF TRADE, 1993-2005 (millions USD $$)

11. GDP GROWTH IN MEXICO 1945-1980 ~ 6.5% 1995 -7.0 % 1996 5.1 1997 6.8 1998 4.9 1999 3.8 2000 6.6 2001 -0.2 2002 0.7 2003 1.5 2004 4.6 2005 2.8 2006 5.0 2007 3.2 2008 1.3 2009 -6.8 2010 5.1 2011 4.0 2012 4.0 2013 1.1

12. Unforeseen Shocks: Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95 September 11, 2001 Drug-related violence, 2008-present Global financial crisis, 2008-11 Current Challenges: Expansion of the development gap Infrastructure (including roads) Migration Energy Security problems

13. POLITICAL EFFECTS The Public Assertion: Free Trade = Democracy The Silent Bargain: International Dimensions Political stability and social peace Access to petroleum Leverage vis-à-vis economic rivals Compliance on foreign policy

14. HEMISPHERIC INTEGRATION? 1. Expansion of NAFTA (through new memberships) 2. FTAA negotiating process (RIP) 3. Bilaterals and minilaterals: U.S.-Chile U.S.-Central America (+ Dominican Republic) U.S.-Peru U.S.-Colombia U.S.-Panama Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru + others?)

15. POST-NAFTA: THE FOX ERA (2000-06) Democratic “bonus,” promotion of democracy and human rights Deliberate departure from PRI, turn toward USA Expectations re immigration reform Support for FTAA Claim to regional leadership, conflict with Hugo Chávez Post-9/11  Slow response on attacks  Temporary seat on UN Security Council  Opposition to invasion of Iraq  Disputes with Cuba

16. POST-NAFTA: THE CALDERÓN ERA (2006-12) Cooperation with USA on drugs (Mérida Initiatve) Softening of stance toward Cuba Focus on position in Latin America (eg CELAC) Opposition to Honduran coup Disappointment over China Lowered pri0rity for foreign policy

17. POST-NAFTA: THE PEÑA NIETO ERA (2012- ) Cooperation with USA Focus on infrastructure and investment Alianza del Pacífico, Trans-Pacific Partnership High-level meetings with China (some projects cancelled) Observe USA-Cuba rapprochement Concern over Central America Ambivalence toward Latin America NB: Loss of popularity over economy and deaths of students

18. AND NOW? “jockeying for position”