1. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. COUNTY AND LOCAL ROAD NEEDS 2012

2. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Previous Studies(2010-11)  Additional Road Investments Needed to Support Oil and Gas Production and Development in North Dakota  Rural Road Investment Needs to Support Agricultural Logistics and Economic Development in North Dakota

3. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. SB 2325  “The purpose of updating and maintaining reports for transportation infrastructure needs for all county and township roads in the state, for the biennium beginning July 1, 2011 and ending June 30, 2013”

4. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Analysis Process  Traffic Volume  Existing Structure  Existing Condition  Costs and Practices

5. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Traffic Volume  Locations  Volumes  Forecasts  Routing  Optimization  Results

6. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Traffic Types Modeled  Oil Development  Agricultural Movements

7. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Location Assignment  Data Collection  Network: Federal, State, Local  Locations: Spacing Units (Oil & Gas) Input Sources (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Output Destinations (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Elevators (UGPTI) Townships (Census)  Volumes: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDPSC Grain Movement)  Forecasts: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDSU – Ag Extension)

8. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Volumes  Oil  Based upon NDDOT white paper (2,300 trucks per well)  Overloads estimated based upon internal assumptions and verified using weigh station data  Oil Related ESAL assumptions taken from NDDOT estimates  Agriculture  Based upon average truck yield and throughput data from NDPSC Grain Movement Database

9. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Forecasts  Oil  Developed from forecasts provided by Oil & Gas  Agriculture  Based upon discussions with NDSU Extension, Industry organizations

10. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Future Well Locations  Drilling  Zonal Plan/Forecasts  Area Density  Frequency of Drilling in a Spacing Unit  Age of Well  Subject to  Zonal Plan/Forecasts  Number of Wells in a spacing unit

11. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Route Generation  ESRI Network Analyst was used to generate routes between:  Spacing Units (fronthaul and backhaul) Freshwater Oil transload facilities Sand locations Cities SWD Spacing Units  Townships (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors  Elevators (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors Final Destinations

12. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Sample Routing  Inbound  Sand  Water  Pipe  Outbound  Oil Rail Transload Pipe Transload  SWD

13. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Inbound Sand

14. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Inbound Water

15. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Inbound Pipe

16. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Outbound Oil - Rail

17. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Outbound Oil - Pipe

18. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Outbound SWD

19. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. All Inbound

20. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. All Outbound

21. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. All Traffic

22. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Agricultural Analysis 22 Crop Production Elevator & Plant Demands Known Truck Trips and Routes Predict Segment Specific Traffic Estimate Data: Crop Production (NASS), Elevator Volumes (NDPSC), In-State Processors (Survey), Road Network (NDDOT-GIS Hub), Local Road Data (2008 Survey)

23. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Crop Production and Location

24. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Distribution Model 24  Each township connected to nearest 150 elevators  Elevators connected to each other  Elevators connected to plants  Fastest and shortest route algorithms  Objective: meet the demands at elevators and in- state processing plants with minimal hauling distances (trucking cost)

25. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Network Optimization  Constrained Optimization Model  Freshwater to Wells  Sand to Wells  Gravel to Wells  Pipe to Wells  Equipment to Wells  Supplies to Wells  Agricultural Commodities to Elevators and Processors Wheat Soybeans Corn Lentils/Dry Edible Beans Barley Oats Sunflower

26. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Network Optimization  Thirteen separate optimization models were estimated for each year of the analysis (260 in total)  Volumes from all optimization runs were aggregated to individual roadway segments

27. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Existing Structure  Surface Type obtained from GIS Shapefiles  Surface Type verified by county officials  Independent verification  Graded roadway width – survey

28. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Existing Condition  1,000 miles of paved CMC roads were scored using the NDDOT deduct scoring system  The approximately 4,500 remaining paved CMC roads were given condition ratings by county officials using a 5 category condition assessment  Both condition assessment methods were converted to Present Serviceability Rating (PSR) scores

29. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. PSRDESCRIPTION 4.0- 5.0 Only new (or nearly new) superior pavements are likely to be smooth enough and distress free (sufficiently free of cracks and patches) to qualify for this category. Most pavements constructed or resurfaced during the data year would normally be rated in this category. 3.0 - 4.0 Pavements in this category, although not quite as smooth as those described above, give a first-class ride and exhibit few, if any, visible signs of surface deterioration. Flexible pavements may be beginning to show evidence of rutting and fine random cracks. Rigid pavements may be beginning to show evidence of slight surface deterioration, such as minor cracking and spalls. 2.0 - 3.0 The riding qualities of pavements in this category are noticeably inferior to those of the new pavements and may be barely tolerable for high-speed traffic. Surface defects of flexible pavements may include rutting, map cracking, and extensive patching. Rigid pavements may have a few joint fractures, faulting and/or cracking and some pumping. 1.0 - 2.0 Pavements have deteriorated to such an extent that they affect the speed of free-flow traffic. Flexible pavement may have large potholes and deep cracks. Distress includes raveling, cracking, and rutting and occurs over 50 percent or more of the surface. Rigid pavement distress includes joint spalling, faulting, patching, cracking, and scaling and may include pumping and faulting. 0.0 - 1.0 Pavements are in extremely deteriorated conditions. The facility is passable only at reduced speed and considerable ride discomfort. Large potholes and deep cracks exist. Distress occurs over 75 percent or more of the surface.

30. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Costs and Practices  Data collected through survey of county road managers

31. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Costs and Practices

32. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Improvement Types

33. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Costs and Practices

34. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Improvement Types  Paved  Condition scores converted to PSR  SN information, where available, calculated or estimated based upon past responses/typical structure  AASHTO models used to simulate pavement deterioration and improvement types

35. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Timeliness of Improvements

36. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Improvement Types  Paved  Resurfacing  Reconstruction due to condition  Sliver widening due to roadway width

37. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Improvement Types - Gravel  Types of Practices  Graveling and Blading Normal Levels (Example: regraveling every 5 years, blade once per month) Increased Levels (Example: regraveling every 3-4 years, blade twice per month) High Levels (Example: regraveling every 2-3 years, blade once per week) Usage of Dust Suppressant on Impacted Roads  Graveling and Base Stabilization Base 1 Permazyme Concrete  Graveling and Base Stabilization with Armor Coat Base 1 Permazyme Concrete  Asphalt Surface

38. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Improvement Types - Gravel  Traffic model results will be segmented based upon traffic levels  Levels broken into increments of 50 AADT  0-50  50-100  100-150  150-200  200-250  250+  County specific practices will be used as the base maintenance practices  Life cycle costs of each maintenance practice will be calculated (i.e. 20 year cost of graveling)  Maintenance Type/Improvement selected for each AADT class based upon minimum life cycle cost

39. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Results – Paved Roads PeriodOil CountiesRest of StateStatewide Total 2013-14$278$84$363 2015-16$146$155$301 2017-18$111$166$277 2019-20$54$145$199 2021-22$43$102$146 2023-32$200$460$660 2013-32$832$1,113$1,946

40. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Results – Unpaved Roads PeriodOil CountiesRest of StateStatewide Total 2013-14$243$227$471 2015-16$243$227$471 2017-18$255$231$486 2019-20$267$234$501 2021-22$267$234$501 2023-32$1,376$1,228$2,604 2013-32$2,652$2,382$5,033

41. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Results – All Roads PeriodOil CountiesRest of StateStatewide Total 2013-14$521$311$834 2015-16$389$382$772 2017-18$366$397$763 2019-20$321$379$700 2021-22$310$336$647 2023-32$1,576$1,688$3,264 2013-32$3,484$3,495$6,979

42. Enhancing mobility of people and goods in rural America. Draft Report  The full report can be found at www.ugpti.org – look in the upper right portion of the webpagewww.ugpti.org  Alan Dybing  alan.dybing@ndsu.edu alan.dybing@ndsu.edu  701.231.5988